We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

Hope your ok @FortonServices and that you get help soon 🥰

Gosh Gloria those visuals on netweather are scary.

Thanks for all the useful information @OhYouBadBadKitten

Keep cool 😎

I just want it all over, a rapid cool down Tuesday evening and a bloomin' good thunderstorm!

Hear hear!! I can't wait. Just think, this time next week we'll be all moaning it's cold!! 😆

We've got a north-facing garden and never have I been so grateful!!

@FortonServices can you leave it to be towed later. Not sure why I pay for AA anymore was the same last time so just rang for recovery

TOTALLY agree with All of this.

THIS

@Grumpybutfunny

They've just phoned to say they are 30 mins away, so it will be 5.5 hours, rather than 6.5 hours. Thank god because DD is getting grumpy 😡

I’ve been a lurker in at lot of your threads OYBBK, and I much prefer the snow ones!
could I ask you what do you think k the probability of a thunderstorm is? It keeps going on and off my weather app!

Make a tent with an old sheet under your patio table or against a fence

As the temperature goes up, what happens to humidity?

Could we get to a point of Crossover - the point at which relative humidity is less than, or equal to, the ambient air temperature.

If we get to that point, then we risk wildfires. We are already at high risk of wildfires due to the dry conditions but if we get high temperature and humidity becomes less than or equal to the air temperature, the slightest spark can set things alight.

Image from Netflix: Big Timber, Season 2, Episode 7.

I mentioned to DH this morning that I was going to give the cats my chilliow pillow. 6pm this evening, a knock on the door and 2 cat cool mats were delivered!

The floofy cat has been on them a few times, but his brother is ignoring them.

Managed to convince DMIL to stay at relatives in the hills in Wales with her dog rather than return to Manchester this week.

Plan to freeze tuna in ice cube trays for the household gods tomorrow.

Already struggling here in Manchester tonight.

My cats normally come in at night but I am leaving them out. The little one might not like this. Cool mats have been studiously ignored.

One of my cats just wants to sunbathe. The twit.
The other seems to have the braincell.😸

Cats are pretty well adapted to heat unlike dogs - so not so much of a worry.

@FortonServices this is my pet rant the RAC are AWFUL they left me and dd for ten hours. I paid for a local tow instead as we were on a cliff in the middle of nowhere and it was getting dark. I complained and they were rude and patronising, but they did let me cancel. I am withGreen Flag now who I have used twice and they've been great .

Makes my blood boil everytime I see them on the news!

very nervous for monday with my 1 year old.
It's her 2nd week of nursery and strongly considering keeping her off as I duunno if they know her well enough to spot if she's a bit off. She doesn't seem to drink much at nursery, and at home we can at least.
Plus it's a 30 min drive at 8am and then 6pm is a long time in what will be a hot car. (nursery en route to work).

Sadly I can't miss work due to meetings having just gone back off mat leave, but her Dad might be able to take the day off.

It's terrifiyng. I'm a scot who loves winter temps - but at least I can kinda rationalise it.
All tips for keeping a fair skinned 1 year old cool in a house with no garden welcome.

Tuesday will be spent walking round Tesco / Ikea or another air conditioned type of shop I think.

Thankfully from a human point of view the humidity will be unusually low. This means that our sweat will more readily evaporate. It's the one saving grace in this.

I've been focused on the heat, but not til the Tuesday night/Wednesday cool down at the earliest.

@yellow13 .
I would definitely keep her off.
As you say she's new to the place

I don't want to scare you but my dd had serious illness missed at nursery inspite of being told the signs! I had to take her straight to a and e;

Thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten for these threads, some very helpful advice.

I'm already feeling dreadful with post covid breathing problems and vertigo and the heat is not helping. I work in a very pressured environment and ideally I'd like to cancel some stuff that is going on but I cannot see that going down well/being approved. I'd also like to keep my kids at home and set them up in the garden office where we have air con, they have felt the heat already today. We're in the amber area and I honestly don't know what to do for the best, it is really peaking my anxiety.

The longer term scenario is even harder to contemplate. We really are living the film don't look up now.

Good morning everyone! I guess we are now at the start of the heat up.

one question - do we have an idea as to when the heat is likely to break in London? I keep seeing that the models have slowed the heat down, so break likely to be later and into Wednesday?

i find it much easier to handle if I know when it’s going to end if that makes any sense! Also really would like Wednesday to be cool for the kids in school.

Erm, we've got rain.

We do too. And a whole day of rain forecasted for Wednesday now so no doubt about when the heat will break for us.

Tiggertum I would say it's now looking like later Wednesday for London. It's 'cooler' than Monday and Tuesday but still 25C ish around the middle of the day.

HannahSternDefoe whereabouts are you? (I'm guessing the north or Scotland)

We've got quite a surprising amount of cloud here (Leicester) this morning and it's quite cool at the moment - 20C

Thanks @GloriaSmud . That’s what I was seeing.

earlier in the week it broke Tuesday afternoon which was giving me hope we might not have two unbearable nights but looks like we most likely will now!

Wednesday doesn't have any rain on it now for me. 25 degrees is still bloody hot in stifling workplaces.