We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

For naysayers who think that Mon/Tues aren't 'that hot'. Madrid recorded its equal highest ever temperature yesterday: 40.7c

We tend to think of Madrid as being very hot. Our current forecast comes close to the maximum temperature ever recorded in Madrid.

My husband has bought a USB plug in fan for his laptop which he has angled so it blows directly back onto the computer itself.

I'm bringing the guinea pigs inside from our south facing sun trap garden. I'm also freezing pop bottles of water to put in their hutch in a cardboard box hidey hole. I'm hoping a little bedroom of cooled air will be made for them if cardboard is insulating.

I have to vent here that the folks saying kids should get on with it and go to school are getting right on my nerves.

It must be years since some of them set foot in a school. My manager, who grew up in southern India was very supportive that I should take leave if needed to look after them. Schools in India close over the hottest months and the months either side school hours are 7.00am and finishing at 1.00pm. Rant over.

I have double garden doors that are full glass. When it is hot, I rig up the garden umbrella, to act as an awning, just outside and it gives enough shade at that entrance to make it cooler with the doors open.

We’ve got two in our kitchen extension and have stuck a gro egg portable black out blind up in the one that gets the most sun (the kind with suckers to stick to windows!) It hasn’t fallen down so far and has reduced the temp in the kitchen quite dramatically.

Thank you. Last week, when it was only 24°c outside, my classroom temperature was 29°c, but worse, the levels of CO2 were very high. I feel like I'm suffocating. The windows hardly open, the corridors are narrow, I have classes of 30 sweating teenagers. They can't work, they're irritable and tired.
It's awful.

I don't have windows at all. The ceiling is very high and has a ventilation fan. Only works if windy. There are two doors which open on to internal corridors. Friday afternoon was 26, which was just OK. A room at the top of a tower block had a window shatter in the heat.

Am I right in thinking the forecast temperatures are for the temperature in the shade? What the hell is it going to be like in the sun?? We have floor to ceiling glass doors along our kitchen and an orangery style roof on one side. I think I might hang out of the upstairs and drape some sheets over that to try and keep it a bit cooler. We are just not set up for these temperatures, it’s scary!

That’s a great idea, @Daftapath , thanks!
We have E-facing French windows and I was planning to hang tarpaulins over them overnight, but the patio umbrella will be much better (& easier!)

So glad I moved from my house with south facing bifolds! Wonder how the new owners will cope !

We have lovely big sliding doors and velux in our kitchen diner - normally great, in this situation a little hothouse. We’ve put tinfoil over the outside of the velux and we have an awning that works well over the doors. I’m now a bit worried about the tin foil cooking us all though…

Today's thoughts from Netweather.

We had a solid roof put on our conservatory 2 years ago but when it had a plastic one, it would be freezing in the winter and hot in the summer. I dread to think what it would be like over the next few days if we still had that old roof! As it is, the sun still shines through the patio doors and still makes it quite warm in there so I'm thinking of doing similar to Daftapath, with a patio umbrella to act like a shield and see if that helps.

Temperatures are always air temperatures in the shade.

In the sun if you were taking measurements- part of your measurements would be about how rapidly an object can heat up and the heat capacity of the object. It is why, for example, network rail talk about rail temperatures being 20c hotter than air temperature.

Imagine how I'm feeling.

Does anyone else get worried about fans running all night? We’ve put tower fans in the kid’s bedrooms but I get very twitchy about them running all night - overactive imagination means I’m imagining scenarios where they overheat, catch slight and kids are overcome by smoke before we know anything is wrong 😥

All this not helped by the fact a house in our village caught fire last week (cause unknown), thankfully the family and their pets got out fine but the house was gutted and they’ve lost everything. The fire brigade have been back 4 times since to damp down as this heat means parts of the house keep catching alight again.

Wow @GloriaSmud that puts me right at the hottest on tuesday! BBC is 'only' showing us at 35c on tuesday which I hope is closer to what happens...

We've just had an air conditioner delivered (I appreciate that we're lucky to be able to buy it), I struggle with heat at the best of times and I've recently had some health issues so I just don't want to risk it.

I think I'm going to hang a double duvet cover over the patio doors (damn south facing garden!), keep the curtains closed and hope for the best.

Latest model mush by TheWeatheOutlook.

@CaveMum lots of things run all night - fridges etc. don't worry about it !

Well we have 7 fans running all night in our house at the moment and have at least 3 running all night, all year round. So far so good!

I've just been told my interview on Tuesday will go ahead face to face because they haven't had any advice to cancel them or do it via zoom.

Says it all really doesn't it

@AndrewPreview BBC are giving me 32 tomorrow and 39 Monday and Tuesday. Metoffice are 31 tomorrow, 35 Monday and 37 Tuesday.
I just want it all over, a rapid cool down Tuesday evening and a bloomin' good thunderstorm!

We've broken down. 6 hour wait for the RAC because we are safe in a car park, even though I have a 3 year old with me.

I certainly won't be attempting to drive anywhere on Monday / Tuesday, as I suspect it will be worse.

The problem is the number of cars overheating on motorways and main roads. They are more urgent.

@FortonServices oh no! I hope you're okay. Are you able to get water and stuff?

I didn't see the answer to a question yesterday. Does the bbq gas need moving out of the sun?

@HuffleWoof this is the best info I could find. www.gok-blog.de/en/2018/06/04/can-i-store-the-lpg-cylinder-in-the-cupboard-under-the-gas-barbecue-even-when-its-really-hot/

@FortonServices oh no! That sounds dreadful. I hope they can come faster for you.

Thankfully we came out well prepared this morning. Plenty of liquids and fruit and we are sitting on a picnic bench in the shade. I also have a fully charged battery pack for my phone and some activities for DD.

I thought I would be classed as a priority having a 3 year old with me but breakdowns on motorways are always more of a priority as they leave passengers more vulnerable.

6.5 hours though. If you do need to drive next week, or any time when it's hot, please take enough food, water and chargers to get you through a good 6-7 hours. B