We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

Latest gfs model run is very similar to the previous run.

If your dog is struggling to drink enough, fill the water bowl with cold water, then add a cap full (literally the cap) of milk it will be enough they can smell it and want to drink it without causing upset tums

I would be very cautious with gas bottles or any petrol cans - try. To store them somewhere as cool as possible.

Petrol cans stored in sheds etc - they can expand in the heat. Try to store them somewhere cool. Even better - use the fuel 8n them and keep them empty, only fill them up when you need to refuel your mowers etc.

Gas canisters - no experience of having them, but I’d probably work on the same basis.

Morning everyone

wondered if anyone could help with thoughts! I have a large flat roof window on my kitchen extension. Am trying to think of ways to block it - not sure I have enough aluminium foil or cardboard ( or could get any). I was wondering if even a sheet would help? I can climb out to it - can’t attach to the inside so would lay it over the outside.

i did however then have a thought - given the level of heat and power of sun it is ok putting say cardboard on the outside? As in there is a t a risk of it catching fire etc without a spark.

sorry this is probably a very dumb question!

I think a sheet sounds safer than cardboard, tiggertum.

Thanks maireas - that’s what I was thinking too

I'm really confused, some apps are saying 35/36 and others are saying 38/39. Which one is most likely?

I was thinking this same thing - I have one in a bathroom loft conversion. I was thinking of trying to rig a sheet up. Obviously inside for me as cannot get up on the roof!

I also have patio doors in the kitchen - luckily it's morning sun they get bit bit worried! Not sure I can do anything to them.

Depends where you are @ohnoohnoo mine was saying 39 degrees but that isn’t likely for the area of West Yorkshire i’m in.

@HuffleWoof another tip for dogs , as mine won't drink that way, if you have wet food, is to give them very small amounts of it regularly during the day mixed with a lot of water , gets the water in easily

@Newnormal99 - patio doors, I also have these ( and also get the morning sun!).

too late for this heatwave but for mine I got some large silver backed back out blinds from a website called easyblinds. They have a seconds area and you can pick up the huge size very cheaply from there ( new the huge sizes are way too expensive!). They stick up but have good fasteners so don’t mark woodwork/metal etc. I’ve found them very effective and often use them during summer even when not extreme heat.

Thanks. I was thinking about sorting something for going forward. The kitchen floor is really hot to walk on in the morning sun. I was thinking about maybe getting an awning for outside so can still have doors open etc but it will block worst of the Sun from coming in.

For this week I'm wondering if I can get some shade by putting the ladder up against the wall over the door and then hanging a sheet over, maybe hanging other side from my surer which will unfold quite long as well. even if it blocks some of it will be better than nothing.

Difficult to tell!

It's also going to vary a lot on your immediate environment. Met Office official temperatures are taken in controlled circumstances (in shade, in open places where buildings etc can't affect it). Even then it can vary because of the built environment - places which are highly tarmacked/built up get higher temperatures. Central London is always warmer then the outer boroughs for that reason. And its why it's always baking outside at airports on hot days

Is foil in windows a tip?

Wouldn't that reflect somewhere else and cause 🔥?

Also people remember magnify mirrors etc

Morning all! Some hand waving ball park temperatures for you. Please remember I am an amateur. I do get things wrong womsetimes! please use the Met Office for your actual forecasts.

Generally a very similar picture to yesterdays models.
Tomorrow: much of England (away from the NW) and Wales will see temperatures in the high 20s, with some places in the low 30s by mid afternoon. Cooler by the coasts.

Monday: hot!
Wales low to Mid 30s.
England (away from far NW coasts) Anywhere could see temperatures in the mid to high 30s, with the SW and coasts being the coolest. I think we need to remind people that if you are in the amber area, it is amber, not red, simply because the very high temperatures are less probable for you. GFS has recently introduced 39c further west than previously modelled. Some places may see 40c, these places are most likely to be around the eastern central areas.

Overnight Monday - many areas not seeing below low to mid 20s. This night will be horrible.

Tuesday: By mid morning temperatures in the mid to high 30s for many away from western and southern coastal areas. Then the main questions are really about how high temperatures will go and how quickly cooler air comes in from the south west.
Currently it is still certainly possible that temperatures will go to around 40c in the red warning area and perhaps a low chance of them going a little higher. Perhaps others outside that area may see temperatures touching 40, but this is a lower probability. Then it currently looks as though through the evening and night cooler air comes in from the SW.

Will the heat come back? GFS introduces the idea of a new heatwave for the last week of July, Fortunately temperatures are currently modelled to be rather less hot than this one.

@ListenLinda I'm in Worcestershire.

@meditrina ah ok, our area is a small town/ lots of small villages so not too built up.

Thanks for the update. OP.
In a nutshell - very hot! It's the not cooling down at night that makes it so uncomfortable, doesn't it?

Yes, very hot!
Had a small panic when my internet went down as I was posting all that. Thankfully it made it to mn servers before getting lost!

It did make me realise as I was restarting my router: check your routers, laptops, desktop pcs for dust and if you can remove it! Bolded as it is vital to help your equipment stay cooler.

Thanks for the update.

I have a 3m wide slding door, south facing. Ive bought a massive sheet of heavy duty black out fabric (white) and sm planning to engineer a massive external curtain type thing on an ecpandable pole which will rest on two hooks (so easily removable) Keeping heat off windows, or at least the inside pane is supposed to make a v big diff... will let you know how it works!

Im loving all the innovation for shading windows!

We had a power cut last night, just gone back on in the last hour. Very uncomfortable night without my trusty fan. The guys working on the problem have had to dig up the pavement a couple of houses away, they say an underground cable had burnt out. I'm hoping that is it for power cuts and my lesson learned as my phone only had 30% power when the electric went out so I am going to try and keep it well charged from now. I also need to buy matches, dying for a cuppa and obviously the electric kettle was no good but it was OK I could boil a pan of water on the gas hob, epic fail as no electricity to light the gas and I had no matches so must buy matches today.

I am currently racking my brains as to how to keep 200 bonsai trees in their little pots from drying to a crisp over the next few days. The pots can dry out in a couple of hours. We don't have much shade in the garden either.

Rail passengers told to avoid travel during the heatwave.

Are they robust enough for you to give them a good water, stand them in containers with water and then lay bed sheets that you can spray with water over them?

Advice for Londoners, that would also apply to Manchester and any other cities I can't think of in the red area.
www.london.gov.uk//press-releases/mayoral/heatwave-presents-serious-risk-to-life