We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

don't feel as daft buying cooling cloths and fans either.

In my large school , we have three... it doesn't work very well.

I am due to drive from the south east to the north west (approx four hour drive) with a one year old on Monday. I am very concerned about making the journey, particularly if there are motorway issues, traffic jams etc. Do those more well informed on here have any advice please?

maloney123 I either wouldn't do the journey that day or leave really early e.g. 6 or 7am or earlier. Can you do the journey Sunday (although it's still going to be a warm day) or Wednesday (when it starts cooling down.)

This is RAC advice which was given before the upgrade to the warning and the Level 4 emergency being raised. Make sure you take note of the last line.
www.rac.co.uk/drive/news/motoring-news/extreme-heat-warning-should-you-be-driving/

Netweather blog entry about the next few days.

Thank you both

The 12Z GFS chart is out now for the coming days. You may see twitter and various weather forums sharing the results without context. It does show temperatures reaching 42c and brings in more widespread 40-41c. It also shows the Monday midnight temperature 36-39C. But there's a big but... we need to see where it lies on the ensembles - whether it is an outlier run. I suspect it is. Once the ensembles update on the viewer I use, I'll update.

Just a thank you to OhYouBadBadKitten. Fascinating to read all about an unusual weather event, and your updates.

I'm old, fat - and grumpy enough at 21c - let alone the stonking temps forecast!

You're very welcome Velvet

DD's school trip to London Tuesday has been cancelled. Thankfully as apparently the natural history museum is warm and stuffy at the best of times.
I've ordered her a sunhat for school as she has never worn a hat, but I told her the school insisted (it was recommended in a letter today) so she has agreed!

Had a skim read of the Gov. Heatwave plan thing, specifically the healthcare advice but nothing particularly helpful. I asked work if the local NHS had issued any advice for us (GP surgery) but nothing so far.

I work in Horseracing, we’ve been told this afternoon that 5 race meetings are being cancelled across Monday and Tuesday due to the high temps forecast. It’s not just about the conditions at the racetrack but also the risk of travel.

Race meetings in Scotland and Cumbria are still going ahead.

The GFS is an extreme run in the 12z runs. So the temperatures it shows are not representative of the ensemble members. That is something.

Ok, that's interesting. It seems to have changed locally from 36°c on Monday to 39°c!

Yes, so treat that one with caution!

Ah, interesting, thanks.

The met office model UKV is similarish on Tuesday, but thankfully has cooler temperatures (mid 20s) as its low temperature for Mon/Tues night.

TheWeatherOutlook have put together a mush of various relevant models to try and create a prediction as to whether the UK record will be broken and whether 40c will be surpassed. Depending on how they've put this together, their estimates may differe from other estimates.

www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather-news/6263/uk-heatwave-tracker-july-2022

@OhYouBadBadKitten I heard the BBC stopped using the metoffice for weather reports because on reliability...Do you know, or have an opinion on, the truth of these statements?

It was a fairly unforgivable decision in my opinion. The Met Office is the best operational forecasting company we have. I believe it was a cost decision.

Yes it was entirely based on cost (relative at Env Agency).

I put a little piece of cucumber in my hamster's drinking water every day when we had a hot spell in 2019.

Never heard of that but I do give my two half a piece of cucumber to eat when it's hot. One is long haired so he'll suffer. I like the stones in the freezer idea a pp mentioned earlier. Thanks for these tips.

According to our local weather we are getting one day of extreme heat on the Monday then cooler with thunderstorms on the Tuesday. I so hope that's accurate.

We are driving north west to south east on Monday (4 hours) and leaving between 5 and 6 am.

Forecast here in SE is constantly shifting. Now showing 39 on Monday, 37 Tue on BBC, Met Office has Mon 34, Tue 35. Seriously different!

I would ignore app temperatures and go with general met office guidance, without focusing too much on spot location temperature forecasts.