We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

It will be interesting to see how the temperatures are read. Does the Met office have official thermometers everywhere ? Someone may go to the press with a thermometer reading over 40 degrees but that's hardly scientific and shouldn't be counted . But the Met office must only have a sprinkling of sites so none of this can be perfectly scientific and they could presumably miss 'the hottest place'?

Cucumber for the Guinea pig.

I don’t really have ’hot child’ advice.

My dog is already most unhappy. He's going to be beside himself on Monday and Tuesday . He keeps looking at me like it's my fault .

You do make a good point. They have a network of over 200 stations, but as they are spaced apart, it is very likely that they will miss local hotspots.

Theres a bit more info www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/how-forecasts-are-made/observations/weather-stations

There is also a network of amateur stations called WOW, which the met office do look at, but don't use for official records.

Thanks for this thread. I’m in Cambridgeshire so I’m the red zone. On your advice I’ve charged powerbanks and put cooling blankets in the freezer for the dogs

Well I've bought a cheaper cooling blanket - see if one of the cats might tolerate it.

I've tried previous tip of frozen tuna and they've shown no interest.

Something that always sticks in my mind:

if a hosepipe has been in the sun, point it away from people and animals before turning it on. I read of a dog or child (afraid I can’t remember which) a few years ago being horrifically burned because someone directed the hose at them then turned it on, expecting it to be a cooling shower but forgetting that the water already inside the hose had been heated for hours in the sun.

That’s such a good point @Bigoldmachine

I turned the hosepipe on the other day when it wasn’t those temperatures and hot water came out which shocked me. I had no idea.

twitter.com/metofficece/status/1547894053869563906
This is worth watching.

I put a little piece of cucumber in my hamster's drinking water every day when we had a hot spell in 2019.

*water bottle

I came on to say this. We were in the south of France in 2003, so I remember it well. We were in the garden one day when it started to rain, and we could hear all the neighbours cheering (only lasted a few minutes though!)

Also, some things they do in hot countries we could do immediately as individuals (like clothing choices, or closing curtains/blinds/shutters during the day), some we could do longer term (like installing tiled floors - though mostly not much fun in the cold UK so not really worthwhile), and some depend on societal changes, like siestas, so that won't be happening - we won't do this just to facilitate a few days a year that might be too hot in some parts of the country.

Thanks for hose pipe reminder.

What about BBQ gas bottle...are they safe?? Should I move ours further away from house

Also fuel tanks older car

Gosh thanks for the hosepipe tip - I’d not have thought of that and mine is in full sun!

my DC school is now allowing pick up at 1.39 both days. I’m definitely keeping them off Tuesday but inning about the Monday morning as doesn’t look too bad on the forecast atm and it would at least occupy them. Guess will make a decision on the day ( and again appreciating I’m privileged to be in the position to keep them off).

i have a friend who is a chef - no air con in the kitchen. Will be horrific for anyone working in there.

1.30. They aren’t that randomly prescriptive!

My next door neighbours have informed us they’re planning to do some ground work demolition with a pneumatic drill on Monday and Tuesday. I have appealed to them based on the red weather warning and the impact on us, our pets and indeed their builders, but to no avail. I am not prepared to spend all day indoors with the doors and windows closed, and I can’t take our dogs anywhere in the heat to get away from it (and why the hell should I have to?).
Perhaps I should post about it on AIBU 🙄

That does sound hellish bloo. Hopefully the contractors will decide they can't work in it.

This is for those who were interested in our drought discussion early in the thread.
nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/HS_202206.pdf

Both dc schools have sent out hot weather info for next week including the fact that they both have a large number of air conditioned classrooms. I had no idea. Is that unusual? Just bog standard state secondary schools.

They have a two min walk to the bus stop, air conditioned coaches to take them the ten mins to school, so tbh I feel inclined to go with them rather than keep them at home 😁

Just to add some advice for dog owners, primarily for the fussier type of dog! Kallo Extra Low Salt Stock cubes, made up at half strength, cooled in the fridge or frozen into ice cubes make a good option for any dog reluctant to eat ice cubes. I've got a fussy girl, there is enough chicken flavour in them to make her eat them. There is such a tiny amount of salt in them that it doesn't hurt their system. Ordinary stock cubes have way too much salt.
I crush the cubes up for my rescue dog (she has less teeth)..it might help someone.
www.kallo.com/things-we-make/products/6-organic-chicken-very-low-salt-stock-cubes/

Put smooth rocks in freezer to put in the guinea pig cage. Worked for my hamster.

both have a large number of air conditioned classrooms.

Some of the IT rooms are at DC secondary - about 4 but others have vents but aren't connected to anything yet rest isn't and this week DS was moved out of the air conditioned classroom as the teacher swapped with another class behind in that subject and they got the substitute teacher for that subject for once.

DS come home today feeling very sick with headache - I don't know if it's a bug which he usually dodges or the heat in school having got to him - though it's not been that bad here today.

I may have ruined a patch of lawn doing just that...it get's hotter than the water from your shower.

Red zone here and I'm quite scared actually. My heat tolerance has plummeted over the last couple of years and I feel ill if the temp is over 30. Thankfully the school where I work has decided to close. Don't think I'll be sending my kids in, they have to get underground.