We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

Where I am, we are right on the edge of the red/amber zone

I am really quite worried I'll get to work and my car won't start at the end of the day. No shade in the car park.

No windows or ventilation in my classroom. It is at least dark.

Bit worried about the school trip to Thorpe Park and the Duke of Edinburgh...

Will cats be OK?

Well. I'm under it too.
My Mum was due to have a small operation on Monday and it's been postponed until Wednesday. I'm also fostering a dog at the moment that had a seizure a few weeks ago (before I had him) which they think was due to heat. He won't be going any further than the garden next Monday and Tuesday.

Well it includes London, so that's 8million!

I wonder at what temperature they'll close the deep underground lines?

wetotter yes, heat can affect parts of the electricity grid in a similar manner.

If you are in the area, or indeed, near it, as events can cascade, charge your devices, have a plan on what to do if you lose power for a day or more. Use water very wisely.

Depending on which site I look at, the forecast temp for Mon/Tues is 38/37/35

That post is already out of date - it's been raised to 39/37/36

It is incredible that it seems the 40 point now looks likely to be reached in places

BBC report on the red warning.

Thank you for the updates, we're also under the red warning. 🥵 Is there any chance at all that the temperatures will decrease at all before Monday / Tuesday? Or even worse, any chance they may actually increase?

Whinge - they're going to increase gradually until Tuesday and then it looks like it all breaks down Tuesday evening/overnight into Wednesday.

National Emergency declared.

Information from the metoffice press office plus some useful advice.

If you are interested in the heatwave plan it is here.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1074023/Heatwave_Plan_for_Engand_2022_May-2022-v2.pdf

Im going to duplicate my posts for a bit in both topics. Apologies for giving people deja vu.
Thank you MN for changing the title on this thread too :) Very much appreciated!

A red alert says it will affect all and not just the vulnerable. We all need to be careful, and most mindful of those with added frailties or susceptibility. What a responsibility for us all.

Yes Piggy, we really genuinely need to pull together on this one. By doing so, people will save lives.

These are high risk groups :

: Over 75, female, living on own and isolated, severe physical or mental illness;
urban areas, south‑facing top flat; alcohol and/or drug dependency, homeless, babies and
young children, multiple medications and over-exertion

Anyone know why women are particularly mentioned?

Is it to do with blood clots? Are women more prone?

Ive erred on the side of caution all week for temperature predictions, because I haven't wanted to cry wolf. It now looks likely that temperatures will reach 40c+ next week.

Oh goodness, we’re in the red zone and I’m extremely worried about DS going to school now. I’ve just received a message from the headteacher that schools will be staying open with precautions in place. I’m not sure these will be sufficient this time round.

Also I have an elderly guinea pig. She’s an indoor piggie with struggles on hot days. Her pen is on a cold tiled floor and I will keep the blinds closed all day. Any other tips to keep her cool would be greatly appreciated.

If you are extremely worried can you keep him home?

Air quality can take a nose dive during a heat wave and you can see that here over the next few days, so that's worth noting but is particularly for anyone with respiratory illnesses.

uk-air.defra.gov.uk/

Also I have an elderly guinea pig. She’s an indoor piggie with struggles on hot days. Her pen is on a cold tiled floor and I will keep the blinds closed all day. Any other tips to keep her cool would be greatly appreciated.

You can get Mega_Jumble Self Cooling Gel Pet Dog Cat Cool Mat Pad Bed Mattress Heat Relief Non-Toxic - I'm not sure our cats will go for such a thing though.

This is only my personal opinion. If my child had to use public transport to get to school and we lived in the red warning area, I would not be sending my child to school.
If my child normally struggled with the heat and we were in the red warning area and I could keep them cooler at home, I would not be sending them to school.

I think I will be keeping him at home now. No public transport or car because we walk, but the walk home will be very unpleasant at 3 o’clock. I don’t trust the government’s judgement at all. I need to listen to my instincts as his mum.

I think you are right to make the call

I also think schools will be fine with it. Fewer students to take care of