We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

If anyone works for the NHS, do you think routine procedures could be cancelled?

I have a loft conversion and the velux over the stairs is the best thing I think we did! The front bedroom on main floor which used to retain all the heat is noticeable cooler since that has been installed.

Everywhere seems to have updated the forecast and added a few degrees!

Yes, I've noticed the same.
Still our headteacher won't close the school, which is intolerable when it's 24°c, never mind pushing 40°c.

Yes it seems like every time I check they've gone up. Our local area was showing highs of 36° yesterday and now it says 38°. I'm really not looking forward to being at work next week. 😔

I'd also like to say thank you to the Op for such an informative and helpful thread, your weather threads are always appreciated.

34C is about my limit when it comes to temperatures but the GFS has 40 for us here (Leicester) on Tuesday. I think that's pushing it a bit and it'll be more 37 or 38C.
Usually the weather can throw anything at me and I'll take it in my stride but I'll be glad when Monday and Tuesday especially are over.

Yesterday's update from Netweather.

BBC has updated for me, I am very concerned for DC at school and nursery.

Depending on which site I look at, the forecast temp for Mon/Tues is 38/37/35

@OhYouBadBadKitten Has there been further change in the modelling - presumably if the forecast is even higher, the underlying models are even higher than they were. Or is it not as simple as that?

I have seen people mention using washing up water for the garden, will this not kill the plants with the chemicals in it ? or is it diluted enough ?

If it's just soap/detergent, and food residue then it's non-toxic to plants. And should help remove aphids

I just wanted to say thank you for such a brilliant and a well informed thread with sensible advice. It’s a real credit to Mumsnet. I hate the heat and I’m worried about DS 8 being at school Monday/Tuesday. BBC Weather is predicting 36 on Tuesday where I am in North Staffs but feels like 38!

I've found in recent weeks the actual temp is always a degree or two higher than the app has shown so now I have no doubt we will reach 40 in many places, possibly not here as we're forecast 36, but 37 is the highest I can remember.

Back in the early 2000s (was it 2001?) I had to go and do a job that involved being outside and I remember struggling and being absolutely horrified by it being 32. Before that I'd always thought of 27/28 being a roasting hot summer

rose washing up water is fine on the garden. I don't have a water butt so eek out water that way. Wish I had a grey water system for shower and washing machine water.

One thought I had is whether we think electricity supply will be affected at all?

i mean I’d hope not but have no idea how resistant the system is and presumably will be alot of extra drain on it.

The difference in temperatures between the BBC and Met Office sites is crazy when looking at my area. 35/27 for Monday and 35/26 for Tuesday!

Morning all! Having scanned the charts again this morning, essentially there's no real change to the outlook.

Sundays temperatures look to be around high 20s to low 30s

Then Monday and Tuesday, anywhere from mid to high 30s to over 40c, depending on location and specific model.

I'm afraid that I can no longer say that 40c is an outside chance, I think the chance of that has increased, but certainly no means certain. However, as we've said upthread, please don't think that 40c=dangerous , less than 40c is ok. Dangerous temperatures are very, very likely now for many.

One of the biggest factors in deaths from heat is social isolation. If you live in a community where people don't check on each other, or you know an elderly or vulnerable person who keeps themselves to themselves, now is not the time to be shy.

Remind yourselves of the signs of heat exhaustion and heatstroke and what to do. The photos here are from www.nhs.uk/conditions/heat-exhaustion-heatstroke/ Adding to how to cool some on down, the Red Cross and St. John's also suggest laying a wet sheet over someone and if possible using a fan over the wet sheet to aid evaporation.

Think about whether you have any spare iceblocks that can be put in the freezer this weekend in case of emergency.

It might be. The met office have warned of this as being a potential issue.

There are a number of factors - demand for electricity soars in hot weather, the power network becomes less efficient due to heat, wind and solar generation will be down (solar panels become less efficient the higher the panel temperature is above 25c), there may be heat failures of equipment, and if cooling water becomes too warm then power plants (including nuclear) have to shut down.

I guess the saving grace is that this is 'only' two days of extreme heat, so hopefully some of those factors won't come into play too much,

Is there a potential for the weather warning to be upgraded to red, @OhYouBadBadKitten ?

I don't think we will move to a Level 4 heatwave, because I don't think there will be the political will to do so. I think our government are reactive rather than proactive and by the time they see everything has melted the extreme heat will be on its way out.

Im not sure whether a met office red warning is decoupled enough from that system. So I can't say I'm afraid.

I might need to eat my sunhat after reading a rumour that there will be an imminent announcement about going to a Level 4 national emergency! Can I retract my last post?

And here we go. RED WARNINGS OUT.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-07-18

Oh my, we're in the red zone (as are millions of other people I'm sure!)

Oh Lawks.

Thanks OYBBK.

Battening down hatches , or whatever metaphor one does in heat.

Oh shit.

Oh gosh!!

Two observations

• furry pets do really badly in the heat, and dogs should not be walked except perhaps very early in the morning, or for the very shortest necessary if you need to take them out for a toilet break. Do not count on them self-regulating their activity levels to the heat.


• internet might not be accessible, if you get it through a phone line. Ours went out for a few hours yesterday because of a (heat-related) problem at a junction box. So you might need to rely on phones/4g to keep connected. I don't know if similar issues can affect substations for electricitu, so I'm keeping power banks fully charged just in case.

I can't believe we reached this point already after the start of the thread was about the hypothetical risk.