We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

I really feel for schools - particularly with that guidance ( I was a governor during covid and it’s shades of that!).

I sort of hope lots of parents who can keep the kids off voluntarily which would at least allow staff to take the remainder to the coolest area, concentrate fans there and just have less bodies heating things up!

can’t imagine any learning will occur.

One little tip if you live in a house, is to open the loft hatch and all the upstairs doors, a little while before you go to bed, it channels the upstairs hot air up into the roof void.

I have seen people mention using washing up water for the garden, will this not kill the plants with the chemicals in it ? or is it diluted enough ?

I'm booked to go to the hot spot SE over this weekend, with an older (70+) friend with a heart condition that puts her in the heat vulnerable category . I am 65, also heat vulnerable.
Plan was driving Sat morning, returning Monday evening. In a car with normal car air con.

We are booked into a G 1 listed hotel, with no air con in rooms.

And at an outdoor music festival on Sun, which involves sitting in the open. No shade.

What would you do @OhYouBadBadKitten ?

I have until midnight today to cancel the hotel.

Can pass on the tickets, if we don't attend.

Help!

I'm away from Internet this evening and my phone is being badly behaved, so I can't give much advice I'm afraid. It depends on what you are doing on Monday. I'd take a big umbrella for shade on Sunday if you go.

Feminist, Sunday doesn't look too bad and if you can leave for the coolness of your car and the journey home by mid-morning Monday, you should avoid worst of it.
Not sure about the hotel with no aircon though - can you cancel and rebook somewhere else with air con?

Monday, doing outside stuff, pre booked and can't just get refunds.

Really not keen on going, tbh

And no hotels available with air con, sadly

In that case, personally I would cancel. It won't be fun in any way.

Feminist - if you are going to worry about going and not enjoy it then I’d cancel and don’t feel bad about it! Saturday night does seem to be forecast cooler atm but Sunday could be getting quite hot. I’d agree if you are going to go if cancel and book into an aircon hotel.

Monday is probably best missed. It also depends on how hot to too hot for you on the Sunday? I think what we are viewing as cooler days atm here we’d probably have seen as hot only a few weeks ago!

I would cancel you'd both be worrying about each other.

Sunday London is forecast 29 atm for example. Which is hot to be sitting outside!

As a HCP, I'd advise you not to go. Not with health conditions.

I will be suggesting to management postponing as many of our patients as we can Mon/Tues next week as I don't want to put them at risk. My room was 30 degrees yesterday (SE, 25 miles inland) I dread to think what it will be on Tuesday. Short journeys for most to get to us, so not long enough to cool the cars down and just not worth the risk for routine appointments.

Huge discrepancies in forecasts here, from 29-34 Tuesday depending on which site you look at! All will be too hot.

Though currently sitting under a blanket on the sofa as the patio doors are open (to cool the house down) and it's actually quite chilly!

@Feministwoman

I was booked into an apt in Hereford with my adult DDs Mon-Wed next week (no particular reason for Hereford, just a nice interesting small city we’ve never been to). Forecast there is 36 Mon, 35 Tue.

We cancelled today. We’ve lost half the money (£220) but it’s worth it to be able to stay home in the relative cool. I’m 71, I have lung cancer now (getting immunotherapy) which affects my breathing a bit, but I’ve been badly affected by heat for several years anyway so I do sympathise with you and friend. Def worth cutting your losses and looking after your health.

The flat has been so hot for so long that now 25 degrees feels quite cool. 27 feels too hot. But earlier in the year much lower temperatures feel too hot. I am hoping I have acclimatised a bit. Funny that we all have different thresholds that effect us. There's only two degreesbetween cool and too hot. From experience I can't do more than lay down, drink and wipe myself down with a cool flannel at 29 inside. It's going to be 35 outside. Going to fucking die.

@BlackeyedSusan I've bought these and they do help. Esp one applied to a bare chest lying on sofa!

www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/B082V5ZPZJ?psc=1&ref=ppx_pop_mob_b_asin_image

Bloody hell. Just watched bbc national weather. Predicting 39 for Tuesday here. I work in a school in a physically demanding role. I don't think I could cope if I went in.

It's fine, and bath water.

I googled our lat/long, entered the figures, table appeared, clicked 2m and that's what I got/get. 🤔 the 850hPa figures are lower - greens and yellow with some pinks and red.

Thanks, all, for the helpful comments.
Have cancelled. Shame, but better safe, etc.

@GiantKitten ,please do re book for Hereford, sometime, it's a lovely city, as is the County of Herefordshire.

Gosh the models are showing even worse temps.
Even the apps are now updating.

what looks very worrying is 3 nights of 20 or above here 😬

Bybworse I mean higher!

@BlackeyedSusan - I actually wondered if those of us that have had at least a week of what I’d have previously thought of as hot weather might have started to adjust a little?

Feels lovely and cool this morning

Paris has 41 on Tuesday! Yes it has got higher here too.

I'm focusing on today which is lovely!!

Thanks for starting this thread @OhYouBadBadKitten We are going to see a lot more of this.

BBC is now predicting 40 and warning of impacts