We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

A White sheet pinned up between the window and blind makes a hell off a difference here @Doghairismyglitter

@Ahhbiscuits moving it to 2pm is actually worse - in UK our hottest period tends to be 12-5 rather than 11-3. Madness

www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B07RC84TRN/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1 We got a fan with cold blocks that can be frozen for our south facing bedroom.

Though opening window after dark makes a huge difference - and as DD1 is now older it's possible to do.

Though might try the white sheet if it gets warm again - as keep looking at silver films and have found downsides.

I bought a white coloured black out blind as recommended by other posters and whilst the room is still warm, it has made a great deal of difference 🙂

Just a placemark really, but I'm in hospital today and the day surgery unit is incredibly air conditioned so I'm glad to be here!

I agree Left. It's a very difficult set of messaging for the Met Office to balance. We have a moderate likelihood of a severe weather event. It is very hard to convey to the public both likelihood of an event and the impact it would have if it were to happen. But these warnings also act as triggers for official action too. That balance is tricky and for the Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office a difficult call to make.

If they go to a red warning and the severe weather event doesn't happen a)people ignore warnings in the future, which isn't useful and b)all sorts of emergency contingencies in various agencies, including health authorities, local councils etc come into play, that are costly and divert work efforts from ongoing concerns. So they need to be a certain as possible that it will happen, before making that call.

If it becomes less likely that we will end up with the severe scenario, then they may step down the warnings. If it becomes very likely, then they will step up to a red warning.

Definitely, one of the single greatest impacts we can all have is to limit flying and cruising.

I think the messaging around getting people to drive less is more complicated. Most people are not served well (or at all) by public transport, lots of people are physically not able to cycle, etc. So sometimes I think this messaging is tone-deaf.

But no one needs to go on a cruise, and a lot of flying is for leisure travel that could be done in other ways.

I was actually reading earlier that you can turn your hot water bottles into cold packs -- fill halfway with water and freeze, they will stay cold for ages.

BUT**

If you do this, then don't use them again as hot water bottles, because the freezing will damage the rubber a bit and so they might leak if you try to use them as hot water bottles later.
We have an old one that I might repurpose for freezing though!

I might repurpose my guinea pig cooling packs for me. My guinea pigs have long left the scene, so not to worry that I might have cooked piggies.

OYBBK Don't watch the Top Gear episode where Flintoff is in Peru...

Cooler here thankfully but still concerned about the heat for Sun-Tues. DH has poor health but is a stubborn sod. Trying to tie him to the sofa whilst feeding him ice lollies will be a struggle.

I will definitely avoid that episode!

Yes. From Time magazine: ‘China is leading the world in new coal power plants, building more than three times as much new coal power capacity as all other countries in the world combined in 2020’.

As bad as that is though, it's only one metric among many. China's rate of emissions per capita is considerably lower than the UK's, so we are in no position to be pointing fingers.

We outsource much of our carbon footprint to china by using the goods that they manufacture and sell to us.

I remember melting roads from childhood (Aus) I don’t think anything was put down though

I'm in NZ and our tar melts every summer, but nothing is put on it.

The models all seem to be coming to a similar conclusion now. Between Sunday and Tuesday, a period of exceptional heat is likely, with temperatures widely between mid 30s and high 30s. There's still an outside chance of 40+ The details are still to be shaken out though - which day the heat will peak and now high the peak will be.
This may not be confined to the south and even the peak district could come under this huge heat dome.

Unfortuately at least one model shows a reload of high heat for the following weekend. But confidence is very low at present for that.

Thank you for these updates @OhYouBadBadKitten . Do we have an idea of humidity from the models or is that something that is nearer the time? Will make a big difference of course. As well as cloud cover - was so much easier to handle the heat today without the sun!

i think the potential extent of the extreme heat is almost as shocking as the heat itself. I even read that the highest temps may very well be outside the South east. I’m hoping it passes quickly

That's such a good question, I'm afraid I don't know the answer to that one!

This - needs to be broadcast everywhere!

I'm curious. Those who think we should all just stop exaggerating and that there's nothing wrong with occasional 40+ days: Given that most of the world is woefully failing to get anywhere near where climate scientists say we need to be to reverse this (if it's even possible now), what makes you think it will stop there?

Not everyone who thinks there is no need for hysterics over an occasional 40+ degree day is also a climate change denier. The hottest day we ever had here was in the mid 70s, so I don't go into an immediate panic if the temps rise for a day or two. Of course it is worrying that the earth's temps seem to be rising, and it is worrying that not enough is being done to reverse this - but some people on this thread seem to think we are all going to be dead in a couple of years. It is possible to tread middle ground.

@onlythreenow

The hottest day we ever had here was in the mid 70s

The hottest ever day in the UK was actually in 2019.

I think the view that climate change is not an immediate threat is quite a parochial one. For large chunks of the globe, it is very much an immediate threat, and the effects felt in those places will have a knock on effect even in countries like the UK. Food security, energy security and peace are all under threat, and not just in the far off future.

Not just those three issues but the big one is migration to the cooler, more able to adapt, north - the numbers crossing the channel will only go one way.

I don't know whether this is a sign of climate change or not but i ve some old red and black current bushes, for years they will be stripped of fruit the moment the berries ripen - not anymore, event the birds favourite, the red ones are still there.

Also, when driving, i m just not getting the numbers of insects on the windscreen, less insects, less birds = more berries.

Its just out right temperatures we need to be v concerned about.

@onlythreenow Perhaps in the 70s we had the time to "tread the middle ground" but not now.

We have either reached or about to reach a tipping point, where climate change will accelerate and be unstoppable.

No one on this thread or anywhere else has said We will all die in the next couple of years.... but the next 20 or 30 years will see v dramatic changes in how we live.
I might not be around then but my DD will only be 45, maybe with a child or two.

Its possible that OnlyThreeNow is talking about her local temperature in either 1975 or 1976. Which fits in well with what I'm going to say. 1976 did have a very hot summer in the UK. But that extreme heat was very limited. I can't find the anomaly comparison I was looking for, but look how localised the heat was in 1976 compared to even 2018. We can't look at things at a local level and extrapolate to general conclusions.

I think also people are forgetting the queues for standpipes for water in many places in 1976. They are also forgetting the number of wild fires.
Looking at one outlier year, 46 years ago isn't that useful. Overall our summers are getting hotter. I'd argue that the resilience of our infrastructure to coping with this is getting weaker at the same time as we move every more to being dependent on electronics for our every day life and as our population density increases.

Nobody is in hysterics over the odd 40+c day, but we are deeply alarmed that we have reached this point where it is possible so quickly. It probably won't be this year, but it almost certainly will happen in the next few years or so. We can't keep breaking record temperatures and not be concerned.

Forgot the graphic I did find.

Models this morning seem intent on pushing the extreme heat back until Tuesday, whenever parts of Yorkshire are modelled to have temperatures of 37C.

We should know rather more by this time tomorrow I think when the low pressure that sweeps this heat over us has formed.