We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

I've just read a post on a local weather FB page saying there is a COBRA meeting today to raise the warning to red from Sunday to Wednesday. This means school closures etc.

I'm away in Devon but very worried now about our animals. Dd is only 18 and her first time left in charge. Need to rig fans up for the dog, ice bottles etc for the guinea-pigs. I don't think there is much I can do for the chickens except tell my cousin to keep water topped up, they have plenty of shade.

Oh gosh this is scary stuff, a sure sign that we all need to change our ways. I have been making a few small changes but this thread has bolstered me in to make more drastic new changes.

Thank you for the thread, @OhYouBadBadKitten

Terrifying stuff, really. I’ve found my climate anxiety going off the charts the past two or three summers. We’re meant to be going away to France at the weekend for a walking holiday (a mountainous region where I’m crossing everything it’ll be a bit cooler) and we’re meant to be taking our dog too. The temperatures next week don’t look like we’ll be doing any walking with her, not sure I even want to take her at the moment but DP said it’s too early to tell and we’ll keep an eye on the forecast. I’m swiping from one weather app to another and getting myself in a state.

It’s so scary to think there are people who still deny climate change even exists. And terrifying that things that were modelled for 2050 or so are happening in 2022. Does anyone else feel totally hopeless for humanity at the moment? 😔

It's looking a bit better in the SE until Monday...

It’s so scary to think there are people who still deny climate change even exists. And terrifying that things that were modelled for 2050 or so are happening in 2022. Does anyone else feel totally hopeless for humanity at the moment? 😔

I feel the same. My DF constantly reminds us that the weather has been like this for decades and is a complete climate change denyer.

According to the media a COBRA meeting was held last night. I don't know when (or if) a red warning will be declared. As there has never been a level 4 national emergency for heat been called before, I don't know the lead times.

There is still undertainty when the peak of the heat will happen. Somewhere between Sunday and Tuesday. It would be utterly insane to do any Sports in those circumstances, and that includes sports day. I'm not sure that schools would open if we went to level 4, but I don't know this. I suspect it would be down to individual local authorities.

One aspect of them keeping children in school might be to prevent a mass migration to the coasts. Given that traffic jams would become horrific, cars would break down, delaying people for hours, that would not be sensible.

Other countries don't have their children running around outside in the blazing sun when temperatures reach the high 30s. Just because hot weather exists elsewhere, it doesn't mean that we should all try to carry on as normal. They adapt their lives for the hottest days in summer. We should too.

Ill also add that there is a reason that the met office have different heatwave thresholds across the UK as shown. It is because they are based on impact on health and services. The cooler the baseline average temperature for a region, the bigger the effect that high heat has on people. Extrapolating that - we are not, in general, a country that typically sees lots of days of very high temperatures. Therefore it has a bigger impact on us that those who grow up in hot countries and are heat adapted.

When we go on holiday to hot climates do we try and carry on as normal, going to school, doing sports days, going to work? no. We slow right down, drink cool drinks and do not a lot. If it gets very hot, we might head for air conditioned buildings to cool off. That is the behaviour we need to all be exhibiting.

OhYouBadBadKitten

Thank you for this info. I'm extremely worried about this as I have to work (NHS) and can't just stay at home with the curtains closed 😣

My DF is similar, he says that nature always works itself out. 😕 I’m not sure if it’s meant to be reassuring, but it feels like he’s totally sticking his head in the sand.

The UK population isnt the problem. This isnt something any small actions carried out here can add up to help, in any meaningful way. This is a global policy problem. And tbh it's what we should be actively starting wars about, forget oil.

Nature will work itself out by making us extinct.

😔 why are we doing nothing about this? We’ve known about the human causes of climate change longer than a lot of us have been alive, and yet everything’s just carried on. I utterly despair. It seems as though it’s starting to sink in on a larger scale now, but it feels too little too late.

The UK population isnt the problem. This isnt something any small actions carried out here can add up to help, in any meaningful way. This is a global policy problem. And tbh it's what we should be actively starting wars about, forget oil.

Exactly this. Without the big carbon emitters on board (USA, China & Russia), we have not a hope in hell.

I think it's better to be pragmatic about living with climate change which is already built in and mobilise for better environmental and political solutions rather than just oscillate between the grand narratives of denial and the end of mankind. Both positions just shut down and derail conversations.

That’s a much more rational perspective, thank you. I wish I could think like this - panic/anxiety seem to be my defaults, unfortunately. I want to be able to envisage a future where our DC can grow up enjoying nature and carrying on working to protect it. Recently, all I can envisage is the apocalypse.

And tbh it's what we should be actively starting wars about, forget oil.

This doesn’t seem a good solution to me, more death and destruction

But in terms of the future it is less stable, I think many will adapt and be ok but the poorest in the poorest countries will be facing huge difficulties- they already are in many ways

Southern Europe here. Now on hose pipe bans and have been recommended to have 3 days worth of drinking water stored incase of shortage.

The UK population isnt the problem. This isnt something any small actions carried out here can add up to help, in any meaningful way. This is a global policy problem

This is just how I feel. I do my best and always look to improve but realistically, my actions are barely a drop in the ocean and that's when I start feeling depressed and fatalistic about it.

It's better here today. I have said to DH would be open in future to moving back up north - last couple of moves have brought us further south - and somewhere very wet in winter rather than cold.

No idea how the nhs or schooldays will cope with this type of heat

I do think this is a big problem.

I've seen in last few days them suggesting cooling centres need to be set up around the country - building with cooling for vulnerable people and then also seen that due to fuel crisis we may need heating centres in winter.

Lower temps in my part of the world, with higher humidity making it much worse than yesterday.

i wonder if the heat will be more dry heat on their Doom Days.

Re NHS my father was in hospital for some of the 2018 heatwave, I swear some patients got more ill from the heat. Imagine how much air con they could provide by getting rid of the Diversity Managers.

Imagine how much air con they could provide by getting rid of the Diversity Managers.

Often the heating is still on.

I gave birth to pfb on one f the hottest days of the year - was awful. They told us the heating had to be on for prem babies fine except they were in a different block. We were told the sleep suits were too much to put on her and even the vest might be too much. So she was in a nappy and I was drench in a cotton night gown.

Since then saw a consultant in summer window open and radiator blasting out heat as it couldn't be turned of yet or adjusted for that room.

Well, yes and no. It's true that lots of things we do as individuals do not have the biggest impact. But for example, if everyone stopped taking cruises, the cruise industry would collapse and this would actually be an enormous environmental benefit. The large ships have the carbon footprint of 10,000 cars and do huge damage to marine ecosystems.

Well, yes and no. It's true that lots of things we do as individuals do not have the biggest impact. But for example, if everyone stopped taking cruises, the cruise industry would collapse and this would actually be an enormous environmental benefit. The large ships have the carbon footprint of 10,000 cars and do huge damage to marine ecosystems

I always fancied doing a cruise but Covid put an end to that fantasy! As it is, we haven't been on an overseas holiday for 16 years and DS has never been on a plane. I wanted him to experience flying but we could never afford it as we'd have to get everyone's passports sorted. I think in this sense we are certainly doing something to help climate change.

A change from amber to red SWW wouldn’t mean any greater impacts, as we are already at the far end of the impact scale, it just means more certainty on location which would be unusual this far out, but becomes more likely the closer we get to the warning.

From the behaviour when we had a red in the winter I don’t think most people understand that distinction (and I don’t blame them for that!). It does make me think about the use of the matrix for warnings (partly because I work in risk communication). Would be really interested to hear other thoughts.

met office matrix - as mentioned in last post