We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

This is a global policy problem

Yes. From Time magazine: ‘China is leading the world in new coal power plants, building more than three times as much new coal power capacity as all other countries in the world combined in 2020’.

In the numerous countries with hot summers or tropical temperatures all year round, everyone who can has air conditioning - and who can blame them?
Look at Flight Radar - tens of thousands of planes in the air at any given moment.

It’s great that so many UK citizens are taking climate change so seriously but as a pp said, other countries need to be on board too.

Sky news is reporting that Hampshire Council intends to use gritters to spread sand over the roads to minimise the chance of the roads melting and soak up any excess tar. There's a sentence I never thought I'd write. Meanwhile we are back to clouds and drizzle and normal service has resumed in the N.E at least.

I remember melting roads from childhood (Aus) I don’t think anything was put down though

To be fair it's not any hotter this week than previous summers. Monday will be mid 30s but we've also had that before. Rest of week is just usual summer heatwave temps. I hate it but it's not abnormal.

The tarmac on my local pavements was bouncy in 2018, which I presume is the step before melting.

Yes. From Time magazine: ‘China is leading the world in new coal power plants, building more than three times as much new coal power capacity as all other countries in the world combined in 2020’.

I watched John Oliver on Utilities companies - USA has huge emissions per person - - it was so depressing in some states their energy companies are trying to stop people being allowed solar panels - the whole system just seemed indifferent and corrupt.

But when you look at emissions per capita, the average Chinese person emits quite a bit less than the average American. In 2019, China's per capita emissions reached 10.1 tons. By comparison, the US reached 17.6 tons, according to the Rhodium Group.
US vs. China: How the world's two biggest emitters stack up on climate

I'm not saying China shouldn't be doing much more - or that we shouldn't -but China does do most of the world's manufacturing - the west effectively exported the carbon output to them -but USA should really be doing more but probably won't.

The biggest risk in terms of health and excess deaths is lack of nightime cooling. This means bodies and buildings don't have time to cool down. We were 18 degrees minimum last night.

In 2003 the big European heatwave killed lots of older women in France (who often lived by themselves in upper level apartments). Older people on certain medications are also at raised risk. That's why we have weather warnings.

I had a poorly newborn in summer 2003.
It was horrific.

@OhYouBadBadKitten All too late now.
I used to date a Swedish scientist in the late 80s, he said that the damage had been done and that the Oceans currents had already changed and whatever was now done, would make next to no difference, the increases were baked in, so to speak BUT what we could do is prevent further changes.

People won't change in any shape or form & Govts are no better, EV cars are a total waste of time, they have a terrible carbon footprint and eat up resources, they are also far too expensive for the majority, oh and have v poor ranges.

What we need to go for is hydrogen but for whatever reason, won't do this, ffs the UK wont even insulate and or build decent houses.

@Chevyimpala67 so sorry to hear that. I don't really want to ask, so please don't feel you need to reply, but did things turn out ok? Small babies are of course very vulnerable but all small children are more susceptible to heat (for physical reasons I don't really understand)

UK wont even insulate and or build decent houses

I have to admit the retro fitting of new builds that's apparently needed seems very inefficient.

Our house isn't bad for heat retention - but while its slow to heat up it's slow to cool which is unhelpful with hot nights.

We'll still have to use even less heating this winter and we are apparently well below average for a property our size because price increases are so much.

SE here and no rain forecast at all over the next fortnight. Temperatures also don't look set to drop below 27° over that time.

I'm clinically prone to dehydration and have to say, it's a bit of a struggle atm. Off to the pharmacy later to stock up on electrolytes as I can get them down me fast enough.

I do think ever recall the heating blasting in hospitals in the summer but it sounds hellish!

Hi,
Thanks x ...
but all was well (after many years of respitory illnesses....) But he's now a strapping 19 year old :)
But being pg, giving birth and then being in and out of hospital that summer was horrendous. I feel SO sorry for those who are pg or have newborns atm :(

@MercurialMonday Its worse than that, when i lived in Sweden, the standard of their housing built in the 50s, was at a higher standard than we were building in the 90s.

So we have built 10s of millions of houses that the owners are paying & heating the outside air with.

It should be a scandal but like everything else, it wont be, ignored by the right wing press, who still don't believe in climate change.

To show what can be done... a friend has recently built a house out of nudura bloc , its almost passive and will cost next to nothing to heat, even when it was a shell (no roof or windows) you d walk into the place and it would feel warmer than outside - total cost to build a large 3 bedroom is less than 130k and thats the cost to him, Persimmon etc could build for far less.

@Chevyimpala67 that's definitely a positive outcome! Yes, agree with you about poor people going through it ATM. A friend gave birth last week and I'm glad she isn't having to go into hospital in the next week.

Re insulation - completely agree that our housing stock needs improving, starting with enforcing better standards for new builds. I live in a 1930s house which is terrible for being too hot in summer and too cold in winter. At least I have a garden with trees at the end for shade. I know if I bought a standard new build it would be likely to have some of the same issues but with a smaller garden and no shade.

I've been looking into what to do to improve things but it's so hard to know what's best.

Children are more affected by heat because they sweat less, I read . Much like dogs (eyes panting restless hound)

I think it’s the 40 degrees that is most worrying.

Whilst there may have been days above 30 it isn’t as prolonged as it could potentially be.

Hence the alerts.

School has confirmed today it will still go ahead with sports day on Monday and children requires to attend, despite temperatures looking even hotter on the forecast.. But they will get given a ten minute drinks break half way through.. Sprinting in 30 degrees with no shade? Think I may accept an unauthorised absence and keep them off, seems absolutely crazy to me.

That's insane

I think it's now not looking like we will hit 40. Thank goodness .

@Ahhbiscuits - are you in the amber SWW area? If so it's irresponsible for the school to go ahead without making changes (early in the day, in shade etc) but I suspect they will pull it

@Leftbutcameback yes in amber zone. The changes they’ve made are to allow a drinks break and moving it from midday to 2pm. Bearing in mind school policy states teachers cannot put suncream on children; so I put cream on DC at 7.45am, then have to rely on them to top up themselves later on in the day. It just seems ludicrous to go ahead with it.

Both my kids had sports day today and I’ve kept them off, both hate extreme heat and feel ill so there was no way they were running around on a filed with no shade. They’ve both had fun in the jacuzzi all day.

Sorry I am still at the start of the thread. (COVID and all that)

Find ways to cool your dwelling without using lots of power, which is only going to increase the likelihood of it getting worse.

Ventilate at night if safe to do so.
Close windows and curtains to keep thecool in. Fit blinds.

If you own your property fit shading above the windows so you protect from sun in summer but gain solar heat in winter. Plant trees. Encourage your council/ school to plant trees. (Tree preservation orders)

Reduce consumption
Reuse stuff.

North Wales went cloudy yesterday afternoon, rained this morning, still cloudy and so much cooler. 21c I really mustn't complain about our west coast weather