We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1074023/Heatwave_Plan_for_Engand_2022_May-2022-v2.pdf

Yes, it looks like MetOffice are wanting local heat plans activated, and that may result in Cabinet Office declaring Level 4.
"Central government will declare a Level 4 alert in the event of severe or prolonged heatwave affecting sectors other than health."

Its only early days too.

In terms of fire risk, please don't take any chances at all with cigarettes, bbqs etc. Even think about garden fires and whether they might spark something.

What kind of temp is forecast for Wednesday 20th please? I have to make a long journey by bike and public transport in business attire 😅

Or how far out are forecasts reliable?

As a childcare provider, my local authority has emailed today to issue Heatwave Alert.
"A Heat-Health alert Level 3 (amber) Heatwave Action has been issued by UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Met Office. There is a 90% probability of Heat-Health Alert criteria being met between 0900 on Monday, 11 July and 0900 on Friday, 15 July in parts of England. A Level 3 alert has been issued for the East of England, South East and London regions. www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/?tab=heatHealth&season=normal#?tab=heatHealth "
They then have gone on to give some guidance including "noting that children’s susceptibility to high temperatures varies; those under 4 years of age, who are overweight, or who are taking certain medication may be at increased risk of adverse effects. Some children with disabilities or complex health needs may be more susceptible to high temperatures. Children cannot control their body temperature as efficiently as adults during hot weather because they do not sweat as much and so can be at risk of ill-health from heat. Heat-related illness can range from mild heat stress to potentially life-threatening heatstroke. The main risk from heat is dehydration (not having enough water in the body). If sensible precautions are taken children are unlikely to be adversely affected by hot conditions, however, teachers, assistants, school nurses and all child carers should look out for signs of heat stress, heat exhaustion and heatstroke."

So by issuing the alert now, the Met Office are making sure that local authorities are putting action plans in place, getting the message circulated.

Thank- you @OhYouBadBadKitten . I’d have to go by train anyway ( on the Saturday) and the tickets are luckily changeable so I’m tempted to get them as a back up ( I go up quite a bit!).

I’ve also discovered net weather through this. Crikey! There are posters on there who seem desperate for the extreme heat!

In case anyone is interested this is a really comprehensive and interesting podcast on heat illness.
www.theresusroom.co.uk/heat-illness/

I follow Ventusky and surfing sites being coastal here. I feel for folks inland and in concrete city areas it's grim. We're in Leeds on Friday for graduation then back to n Wales thank goodness

I wonder if schools would close if we get up to 40 plus next week?

Poster from Government... not sure how useful that will be but I guess my LA is wanting us to print it off and display it - I won't be as I am not running a nursery but the nurseries might.
PDF for printing: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1075144/Beat_the_Heat_Poster_2022.pdf

@Icanseeclearlynow12 I hope not it's almost the end of term and end of primary for the year 6. They deserve a chance to say goodbye to friends etc. Parents could chose to keep their kids off but ours would be perfectly happy with a water bottle, hat and sun cream even at 40+ it's the sort of temperatures we travel for!

I remember when Greece hit 40 tourists were told to only go outside early morning and early evening

A little respite will be helpful.

Yy to cloud making a difference. A LOT of cloud has arrived outside my flat. I want to cuddle it. It has brought the temp down (inside the flat) from 33 to 28. Yay!

I always ignore newspapers!

This is so true, I'm melting at anything above 22c (northern scot). It's been 24/25 here today and I've stayed in most of the day can't imagine what's it's like on the London tube right now.

And yet my DCs school have still said sports day will go ahead at lunch time next Monday 😔 (in amber zone) a field with zero shade at all. WIBU to not send DC in? Other parents seem to think I will be over reacting so I’m not sure.
Thank you for this thread @OhYouBadBadKitten extremely useful to all.

@Ahhbiscuits - I guess the school can’t say anything yet as we still don’t have definite temperatures yet.

I won’t be sending my DC into school
full stop if it is 37 type temps or hotter. Even the amber alert notes that changes will need to be made to daily routines and work. I don’t know what a red alert entails but if we got to that then I seriously doubt sports day will go ahead ( I think at that point it’s a national emergency).

It's interesting the effect of heat on the body, it's not just dehydration, it was being discussed on the world at one.

Which got me thinking as I've (unusually for me) had terrible indigestion and really painful bloating since yesterday and I googled it and it's a side effect of dehydration in hot weather ! I've just been drinking my usual teas (decaf) and coffee. Have now added some water in doh! Didn't even consider it as wfh so not wandering about London with a bottle of water like I normally would .

Tomorrow I'm going to fill a bottle and make sure I drink a lot of water

I'm curious. Those who think we should all just stop exaggerating and that there's nothing wrong with occasional 40+ days: Given that most of the world is woefully failing to get anywhere near where climate scientists say we need to be to reverse this (if it's even possible now), what makes you think it will stop there?

So 40 degrees is OK. OK then.

What about 50?

60?

Is there a number, at which this will actually penetrate your skulls as the once-in-an-aeon existential catastrophe it is, rather than "hysterics"?

Do you have exceptional in car climate control? If not, I really would postpone. We drove liverpool to Brighton today and that was utterly intolerable. Actually cried about 3/4 of the way down and threw up when we arrived.

It's not possible. Infrastructure just needs to change rapidly to accomodste it and protect people.

@MiniPiccolo we have air con which does feel really cold. It's a trip we kind of have to make unfortunately. But our plan is to leave at 6am and be at our destination for 10am. That's about the best it's going to get I think.

I'm letting my DC skip sports day tomorrow. He was dreading it anyway and he will absolutely burn to a crisp, it's not worth it.

I wish people would take sunburn more seriously. From Cancer Research UK: getting sunburn once every two years can triple your risk of melanoma

Parents could chose to keep their kids off but ours would be perfectly happy with a water bottle, hat and sun cream even at 40+ it's the sort of temperatures we travel for

The difference being countries that often get 40 degrees have buildings and homes designed with that in mind. Our buildings are designed to retain heat and most of them do this very well.

@Ahhbiscuits I wouldn't be insisting my child did sportsday on Monday

I have an upset stomach, cramps and diarrhoea. First thought was covid as family have had the same symptoms. But negative test as usual. Maybe it's all heat related. Really worried as have to work the weekend