We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

@OhYouBadBadKitten makes sense.

I always love these hot temperatures when I'm in a drier climate but I can't cope in humidity - I loathe sweating!

Agreed. The humidity makes high temps soooooo much harder to manage.

What can we do to help wildlife? Will our native species be able to cope with these temperatures?

So my dehumidifier and aircon unit should help us through this at home then? My parents are in their 70s - so I guess I'm sorting that for them tomorrow.

The good thing is that everything is in full leaf right now, so that will provide plenty of shade for a lot of wildlife.

The best thing you can do is provide water. If you have space for a birdbath, that’s great - provides drinking and cleaning facilities for the birds. The water will evaporate fairly quickly, plus the buggers often poo in it! So rinse it out and refill as often as you can.

Im also leaving a couple of small bowls of water at the bottom of my garden as it stays mostly in shade. I’ve had a wild rabbit visiting recently, so want to make sure he has a water source, plus who knows what visits when I’m not there to see.

Even if you only have a balcony, a bowl of water on there will be valuable to birds etc.

The 00z gfs was more in keeping with the 18z gfs for next weekend. Slightly lower temperatures but focusing the highest heat more on to Monday 18th.

30.7C here (Leicester) but at least there's a bit of a breeze. There's going to be a lot of watering going on at the allotment over the next few days.

My dog is really unhappy, I'm trying to keep him cool, but he's pacing and panting despite a fan, cool cloth on him, I keep mixing bits of his food with water to get liquid into him. Redheaded dd is at school but is coping - school has advised pe kit for the rest of the week although that's a lot more pale flesh to burn!!It's going to be a long ten days or so!

30 here also so not insanely hot (yet)

Just seen this

Yes, extreme heat warning out for Sunday. www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-07-17

The really important thing to notice is the impact matrix. One below a red warning, based on likelihood. At the moment the met office are considering extreme heat as likely, rather than very likely. It's also been issued a long way off. It's unusual to see this being issued 6 days in advance. To me, that says that they want local heat plans to be activated.

To add to that, if this doesn't change, I think they will be strongly considering declaring it a level 4 heatwave, which becomes a national emergency. I don't have an insight into their thresholds for that though.

I've been following your weather threads for many years OYBBK but hardly ever comment. Just wanted to say thank you very much for your contribution as this is first place I look when any severe weather is forecast 🙂

Never known an amber warning for heat. That is really concerning!

Anyone know what implications are if declared Level 4 Emergency? I am due to be moving heavy stuff in a school next Monday. I think I'll melt!

I'm interested in this too as we are supposed to be driving from Liverpool to the South East first thing Monday morning

I'm trying to share the images, but mn server is melting it seems. Met office are warning of:
heat exhaustion
potential loss of electricity, gas and water supplies
failure of heat sensitive equipment
water safety incidents,
disruption to travel.

In short, this isn't just 'summer' that is being warned about it's not a matter of 'just getting on with it'. It's not just let's head into the paddling pool and eat icrecreams. There is the potential for a dangerous situation. Let's just hope it doesn't happen.

It's tempting to go mad with the watering, but take it easy in the south, better to let the lawn go brown than end up with loss of supply.

Met Office press release.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/extreme-heat-warning-issued

I believe the warning system for heat waves was only introduced last year, or very recently, as part of a shift to thinking about heat waves as extreme weather events rather than an excuse to wear a bikini, go to the beach, and eat ice cream.

I often find xcweather a reliable forecast, (though nothing is reliable atm and not more than a day or two in advance).

However, it's currently showing that Friday in my neck of the woods (London) will drop down to 23c which is the only day it has a nice temp. If it's correct, it will be a good day to get stuff done, especially stuff requiring a Tube journey. But it's such an oddity...I find it hard to believe we are getting a one day respite.

This is the last thing the NHS needs, there will be people getting heatstroke, and probably drownings. We're not used to being told to stay indoors because of heat in this country.

Can I ask when we can have confidence in the weather predicted temps? Is it about Wednesday ( half considering fleeing to the far north where I’m from if it looks really awful and sustained)

NHS Trust covering Portsmouth and the Southern Region ambulance trust have just declared a Critical Incident. Covid plus heat...

planetradio.co.uk/greatest-hits/south-coast/news/critical-incident-declared-at-portsmouth-qa-hospital-2/

I definitely wouldn't be relying on any apps, but yes, we do get a little respite hopefully before the weekend.

In terms of pegging down the temperature, I hate it when people make a decision based on what I say - I'm only an amateur! But I think by Thursday we will have a reasonably good idea. I dont think we could say for sure until it actually happens what the highest temperatures will be. It only takes a little unforecast cloud to pull temperatures down an little.

I would say, it's best to keep a close eye on what the met office are saying directly from their site or social media. Some of the BBC weather presenters also do excellent local forecasts on social media and are worth keeping an eye on. I'd ignore any newspapers