The mumsnet annual winter weather watch thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's slightly mad to start a thread before we've even hit October, but I know that many are quite anxious about the prospects of cold weather this winter, so I'll start it early.

The usual caveats apply : I'm not a professional forecaster. I often get things wrong! Please don't make decisions on what I say - especially ones that have safety or financial implications.

This far out all we can talk about is the balance of probabilities, we can't make predictions. And as we know with probability, the improbable happens!

At some point this thread will start to get confusing as everyone gets excited about christmas weather. I'll start a separate, specific christmas thread about five weeks before Christmas.

@TheSilveryPussycat you must be near me. I'm in Whitley Bay. It's utterly miserable and I'm not looking forward to the school run tomorrow!

I don't know why I listen to Lewis ( I do, I love snow and he's more likely to say it's going to snow!) But looks like it's getting colder at least

While we are waiting for the models to stop wobbling around so much,
here's the first Christmas mutterings I've seen.
www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/xmas

Thanks for the Netweather links.

Metcheck is showing snow on Saturday for some areas.
www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/gfscharts.asp#

Models wobbling - hmm, wonder what they will show tomorrow. It does seem to change from rain, freezing rain, snow... so who knows what will happen.

That's the gfs model.
I think any snow this weekend will generally be confined to hilly areas in the north. However, it's possible that the Chilterns might be affected on saturday..

GFS does like the idea of snow on Saturday. Especially in the north and eastern counties. I still think the chilterns could see some. I'm not sure about other places in the midlands and southern areas.
Much of the UK will see high winds on Saturday too with warnings out.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-11-27

@delatron and @photosymphysis AJ is forecasting snow for this Friday night until Saturday. Haven't seen what Harry is saying yet but we may get some. If we get some it's either enough to shut the hills into my village or not a snowflake at all 😀

@tapdancingmum I’m trying not to get my hopes up! I think it will be more up on the Chilterns (we’re low and by the river here). If you’re higher you may get lucky! We often miss it by a few miles.

It will be exciting to see how it all pans out. Winds look intense too? I’m suppose to be travelling in to London but not sure if the snow will end up down there.

Winds do look intense. Saturday could be very unpleasant.
It really depends on exactly where the low pressure tracks. That is really critical to who ends up with what.

@delatron I'm on top of the Chilterns where it drops down to Aylesbury Vale so we can be virtually cut off but a couple of miles down the road there is nothing. I'm supposed to be going to Winchester Christmas market on a coach on Saturday so will be wrapping up really warm 🥶

Ooh I think you have more chance of snow up there @tapdancingmum
I’m thinking of wearing my ski clothes out 🤣.

Saturdays outlook is starting to settle down.
Very windy - widespread gales, perhaps severe close to coastal areas.
Mix of snow/cold rain showers down the eastern side of Scotland and England, perhaps getting into the chilterns. Snow mostly over hilly areas, but could get to lower ground.
As is the nature of showers, some may see nothing at all.

This forecast will probably change a bit.

I'm battening down the hatches on saturday! (NE England - right on the coast!)

Thanks for the update @OhYouBadBadKitten looks like a wild day of weather (and freezing cold) wherever you are’

Weather warnings for Friday and Saturday issued by the metoffice.

First 'snowmaggedon' article in the red tops

www.thesun.co.uk/news/16833033/gale-force-winds-and-snow-this-weekend/

Gloria 🥰 yesss!
The gangs all here and bad weather on its way, same old same old 🌬☃️💨🌪
Batten down the hatches on Saturday 😂

Trouble is, we've been invited out to lunch on Saturday in Halifax... ah, wish the weather wasn't so interesting now

hoochyhooha - Yes, all present and ready for another winter!
We've got a visit to a college open day for DD3 on Saturday so I think it'll be straight out, visit college and then back home again that day!

We're going out for dinner on Saturday night. I was looking forward to getting a bit dressed up. Oh well, better to dress for the weather than the occasion.

I'm meant to be going to York on Saturday to visit the markets and some drinking will no doubt occur. Really hoping there wont be anything too extreme - First I have to walk a couple of miles to get a bus to my actual town centre before going on to York.

BBC weather predicting heavy snow showers for us in West Yorkshire on Saturday 😯 this is in the last hour.

Whatever happens we can't have any nasty weather in Hampshire for a couple of weeks because I don't have any winter boots yet.

Changed to heavy snow showers here on the NE too, hoochy

It is not snow that is an issue - its the very strong winds - widespread gusts to 60mph, reaching 80mph in some north eastern areas. These winds coming from a NW direction, which is unusual, will bring down trees. More than you might expect for the strength of gusts.

The storm has been named Arwen.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-11-26