The mumsnet annual winter weather watch thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's slightly mad to start a thread before we've even hit October, but I know that many are quite anxious about the prospects of cold weather this winter, so I'll start it early.

The usual caveats apply : I'm not a professional forecaster. I often get things wrong! Please don't make decisions on what I say - especially ones that have safety or financial implications.

This far out all we can talk about is the balance of probabilities, we can't make predictions. And as we know with probability, the improbable happens!

At some point this thread will start to get confusing as everyone gets excited about christmas weather. I'll start a separate, specific christmas thread about five weeks before Christmas.

weakening for cold cold!

Fascinating! Another model is coming into line for bringing in 'proper' cold and snow for the end of next week. Maybe GFS is on to something!

@delatron the other FB guy seems to be agreeing (sort of) with the FB guy that you mentioned 😀 not a stalker but remember you from other threads where we ascertained that we both follow a certain FB guy.

Yes I remember @tapdancingmum !

He was adamant a few days ago there would be no snow and it was all rubbish. Then changed his tune yesterday. Also follow the Chiltern weather alerts on FB now as they’re quite good. Seems everyone is agreeing that there is a possibility. And that’s exciting!

Thanks for the updates on the models @OhYouBadBadKitten I guess we’ll know more in the next few days.

Eeeek come on @OhYouBadBadKitten we can do it!! (I seem to be of the very misguided view that if you want it badly enough you can will it to happen!)

Failing that we're off to Austria in Feb 22 where I'll have a much better chance of my beloved snow!

I've just come on here to see if rumours of a cold snap (according to my phone!) are true.
And to place mark

:D

There is more model agreement about a cold spell from around the 25th onwards. There are also hints about some wintry stuff mixed in. I'm starting to get a bit interested in this now!

Ooooh exciting

Definitely getting exciting. I think the models are over egging it, but they range from a mix of wet/wintry through to snow showers through to above welly boots depending on location, model and model run.

It’s starting to feed through to some of the forecasts. Then one on my phone now saying 50% chance of snow next Fri/Sunday. They are getting very excited on the net weather forum! 🤣.

It will be interesting to watch how it all pans out. We’re in a bit of a snow shield area where I am so I won’t get my hopes up. Very low lying and mild area of SE. We’ll have to see what happens! Snow must be so hard to predict, I see the Met Office are being cautious and saying only about 25% chance of snow.

Oooo where's that sledge

locate the sledge, but don't dust it off yet there is still a widespread of scenarios - from dry and settled and cold, to cold rain to plenty of snow.

Is the FB weather guy Lewis, by any chance?

He has been very excited this week!

I've come along to see if OYBBK is with him or not!

I'm sitting on the fence.

Love these threads. ❤️

GFs keeps flinging snowy forecasts out, from 100cm deep in Ireland at one point (yes really) to 25cm across the Midlands.

It does look like after getting somewhat colder this weekend, we then all become notably colder towards the back of next week. But that's about all the detail we can really nail down at this point. There is a lot of snow potential in the models, that's all it is at present - potential.

If it helps guide thoughts though - I've checked that I know where our gloves are. (and just had a thought, dhs boots have too many holes in to be ever made waterproof. oh dear).

Which sites are good for looking at the GFS snowfall predictions?

Have put the electric underblanket on the bed. It's getting near that time when it may be needed. Roll on the cold and snow.

Is there a recommended site or something to see the predictions and models? I love looking at this stuff!

www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data will give you some snapshots.
When looking at GFS it's a good idea to check out the ensembles which basically tell you the confidence and range of predictions of each model run. But remember that is only one model.
www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ensembles
When looking at the ensembles, the 850hpa plots are temperature forecasts for around about 1500m up ish. As such they aren't subject to diurnal variation. Look for temperatures less than -5c as a very rough rule of thumb.

GFS is infamous for predicting snow 10 days out and the 18:00 run which comes out late evening is known as the pub run and often shows quite mad predictions.

I’ve ordered a beanie hat and fixed the upstairs radiator. It will be colder and anything else is a bonus.

Thank you! I’ll go look now.

4 degrees here and some very fine rain which almost looked snow like. NE England.

Got my new boots, orthotics fitted, thick socks. Am now off to put the hats and gloves on the hallway radiator!

Horrible here in the NE. Cold, damp and raining.