The mumsnet annual winter weather watch thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's slightly mad to start a thread before we've even hit October, but I know that many are quite anxious about the prospects of cold weather this winter, so I'll start it early.

The usual caveats apply : I'm not a professional forecaster. I often get things wrong! Please don't make decisions on what I say - especially ones that have safety or financial implications.

This far out all we can talk about is the balance of probabilities, we can't make predictions. And as we know with probability, the improbable happens!

At some point this thread will start to get confusing as everyone gets excited about christmas weather. I'll start a separate, specific christmas thread about five weeks before Christmas.

Lightningmaps.org is great and very precise. I know from the huge thunder storm we had in Edinburgh in the summer, when I could see a lightning strike showing on the map, hitting the local park. DD was in the local park and had the experience of her hair standing up on end, as she was so close to it
7C in Edinburgh, the winter coat is being used. Crazy amounts of rain. Feel like we're making up for a dry summer.
Hoping for a break in the cloud over the weekend as there's a possibility of an inbound X class solar flare.

Possibility of seeing the aurora tomorrow night is really really good where skies are clear.. Even perhaps down to Lincolnshire.

I love lightning maps. Turn on the sound - it will click for each strike.

I think it tracks ground strikes. Rumbles of thunder could be cloud to cloud so not show up. (If am right about cloud to cloud thunder. Anyone?)

Thats pretty much what I understand PussyCat.

Tomorrow could be a pretty wild day, with some severe short lived winds, especially in the east.

Thank you - added lighteningmaps to my favourites. Have only recently discovered Accuweather after being recommended it - so surprised by how much more accurate it is than the bbc weather app that I’ve been using for years!

@OhYouBadBadKitten

Thats pretty much what I understand PussyCat.

Tomorrow could be a pretty wild day, with some severe short lived winds, especially in the east.

We're in the East and it's certainly cold tonight with driving rain.

Two days ago we were walking on the beach in Teeshirts. Crazy.

It’s been heavy rain and windy here in West Yorks. I wouldn’t say overly cold yet though.

Frosty morning here today in Co Durham, had to scrape the windscreen!

The Christmas tree is up in the square at Rovaniemi!

Nothing is really showing at the moment that indicates anything more than the current chilly spell and it looks as though it could warm up through the month. However there are some teases for December. (as always!)

Bloody freezing icy wind at the park this afternoon. Car said 9° but it felt much colder to my underdressed self.

Ooh I'm a bit late to the party but lovely to see the thread, thanks OYBBK! I'm going out but marking my place to come back and read it later. ☔️

Ooo Gloria! Lovely tree! Could make a few sledges out of that one
In Aberystwyth, all very mild and rainy atm

The wind is scary as hell here in the NE of England. Forecast says 'Fresh Breeze' fresh, my arse. Though it did just nearly knock me on my arse!

Short to mid term, it looks like the rather unsettled period 'up north' will calm down in a couple of weeks, to join the south (east) in a calm, settled and drier time. Frost and fog will start to play their roles a bit more.

Hints of some hill snow later - there's is some teasing about snow in northern england around the 18th Nov, with chilly for all.

Saturday, we had 40+ knots of wind while sitting in a cloud, and that cloud opening up as we got to the bottom of the hill.

Sunday, we had blazing sunshine and we were wearing just t-shirts outdoors for a good 2 hours supervising Cub Scouts...unheard of for November!

My car was saying 15.5 degrees yesterday in the afternoon.

So there's really not much sign of winter yet here.

No, there is no real sign of winter and with the polar vortex being modeled to strengthen again, I wonder when it will come.

Good morning just seen next week's forecast, starting to get colder ❄️🥶

Ooo I know @leesmum hope OYBBK will be along to tell us what is happening

A few mentions (Facebook weather guy) saying possible snow around 27th Nov. Checked the very unreliable BBC forecast and it does mention sleet here in the SE around then.
I know it’s over 10 days away but a possibility is exciting.

I’ve been ignoring all the sensationalist tabloid headlines but FB weather guy has gone from saying ‘zero chance of snow’ it’s all bollocks yesterday to ‘possible snow’. So something may have just changed in the forecast.

Looking quite chilly a bit further out @OhYouBadBadKitten 25/27/27 November. Any hope of anything exciting?

Ah here you are, this thread never bookmarks properly!

Frosty today. North Hampshire.

Morning all :)
I didn't want to start shouting SNOW! yesterday as the models have been a little wild. They still are really, we have a range from a little chilly for a bit, to a whole lot of ridiculous levels of snow.

The principle leading model for buckets of snow is GFS. It's famed for doing this on the 10 days ahead forecasts. So I wouldn't read too much into it yet, until other models come on board.

For polar vortex watchers - instead of weakening, at present it is forecast to do the opposite.

@OhYouBadBadKitten

Morning all :) I didn't want to start shouting SNOW! yesterday as the models have been a little wild. They still are really, we have a range from a little chilly for a bit, to a whole lot of ridiculous levels of snow.

The principle leading model for buckets of snow is GFS. It's famed for doing this on the 10 days ahead forecasts. So I wouldn't read too much into it yet, until other models come on board.

For polar vortex watchers - instead of weakening, at present it is forecast to do the opposite.

Would we prefer a strengthening polar vortex or a weakening one?