The mumsnet annual winter weather watch thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's slightly mad to start a thread before we've even hit October, but I know that many are quite anxious about the prospects of cold weather this winter, so I'll start it early.

The usual caveats apply : I'm not a professional forecaster. I often get things wrong! Please don't make decisions on what I say - especially ones that have safety or financial implications.

This far out all we can talk about is the balance of probabilities, we can't make predictions. And as we know with probability, the improbable happens!

At some point this thread will start to get confusing as everyone gets excited about christmas weather. I'll start a separate, specific christmas thread about five weeks before Christmas.

We only had a bit of sleet in Dorset..South Wilts had a mix but it didn't settle...'prettypup' is a 'snow dog'...would love a bit of snow this winter.

@DaisyNGO

hope this is the right thread to ask

does anyone have any thoughts on London weather, this week or next week?

looking online, I get all sorts. The cold is pissing me right off, I really want it to go away. There's even one odd forecast saying Wednesday will be better but Thursday will be shit freezing again.

excuse the swear words. I am very much hoping for a return to mild weather! It doesn't normally affect me this much but it feels really bitingly cold at the moment.

The forecast is all over the place. I'm not sure anyone can tell you what is going to happen by the weekend at the moment. I wish I could!

Thanks OBBYK

The forecasts do all seem to think tomorrow will be warmer, I really hope that's right.

My parents boiler has packed up now and they are in their 80s. I suggested a hotel but they are hoping for a repair tomorrow or Wednesday.

Thanks @OhYouBadBadKitten. Will prepare for both! Hope for mild. X

Tomorrow will be warmer (but for those in snowy areas that might be less warm than forecast)

Thanks OBBYK

It might be 10 in the day tomorrow, which would be very welcome.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-djfv1secure.pdf

3 Month outlook is out. Met office are still favouring the most likely outcome for winter as being most likely to be average or mild temperatures, with average precipitation. They still point out that it could be cold or that we may have some cold spells.

I'm seeing a lot of fairly fervent disagreement with them on this outlook. I guess time will tell.

Definitely seems to be two tales going later into winter.

Forecast here on the NE coast for tonight is heavy snow from 1am. We will see..

Rainbow, do you want snow?

No mildness in the South East. Boo, hiss.

@DaisyNGO

Rainbow, do you want snow?

No mildness in the South East. Boo, hiss.

Wouldn't mind the snow. Just not fancying the ice warning that accompanies the forecast for school run tomorrow

Potentially looking rather stormy early next week. Especially Tuesday. One to keep an eye on.

2C and rain/sleet/snow,/can't make it's mind up precipitation, in Edinburgh.
Got wind forecast for Wednesday, but only 40mph gusts....but from the North again
New winter boots arrive Monday

Seems a lot colder in London than forecasts say, especially at night.

Met office warnings are out for Tuesday.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings

Thankfully the low pressure responsible for these warnings looks to be filling as it crosses us and so while it will cause some trees to come down etc, it doesn't at present look too nasty. I know it will be unwelcome for those struggling to get back on their feet from Arwen though.

It has been named as Storm Barra.
Looks like it could cause some issues over Ireland and Northern Ireland I think. Less so over England, Wales and Scotland as it fills.

I've created a Barra thread. www.mumsnet.com/Talk/weather/4419493-Storm-Barra

Shifting back to this thread to give you GFS suggestion for Tuesday.

That looks 'interesting!'

What does it mean? Is that some weather excitement coming our way?

It means that one of the models on one of its model runs is forecasting snow for many on Tuesday, along with gales on the South Coast.

And it persists with the theme in the model run 6 hours later. That'd be fun for the return to school!

Oooh, crikey! Doesn't seem possible when you consider how sunny and mild it is today!

We need to loose 10-12 degrees at last by Tuesday. BBC says 7° and raining for South Kent. I want to believe you but the weather has been so disappointing this winter that I daren't trust anything yet...

And just like that. The 12z model run takes the low into France. Bye bye snow!