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Original poster

Snow watch!

978 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 22/10/2018 09:19

I know it will seem quite crackers to start this when the weekend has been so lovely, but we are starting to get some model consistency on GFS for the potential for snow Friday night into Saturday as a northerly plunge looks set to take place.

Primary risk areas are obviously for hillier parts of Scotland and also Wales, but higher ground in the south and south east including over dartmoor and down the east coast may also see some sleet or wet snow.

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PestoSnowissimos · 30/01/2019 09:50

We got a dump last night & it’s looking very pretty here this morning, high on the Downs on the outskirts of Brighton ❄️⛄️❄️

Reastie · 30/01/2019 10:25

Noticed met office predicting up to 5-10cms for thurs eve but bbc forecast this morning were saying up to 10-15cms so I wonder how much will it be and where will be hit.

GloriaSmud · 30/01/2019 10:30

Updated weather warnings.

Tomorrow's warning area has been adjusted ~ the metoffice seems to be following what the GFS thinks and while there is some uncertainty, they still seem to think snow is possible for Wales and quite a lot of England.

pollyhampton · 30/01/2019 10:35

Can I ask a bit of a silly question? Why are weather forecasts for the same area so different? SO, for where I live (south coast) BBC is showing heavy snow tomorrow evening but accuweather shows nothing. Is one a better forecaster than another?

ILikeyourHairyHands · 30/01/2019 10:49

Snow days all round in Buxton!

LadyFlumpalot · 30/01/2019 10:58

Looking at the matrix for the yellow warning for tomorrow I expect it will go up to amber before today is out. It's on the last yellow box.

GloriaSmud · 30/01/2019 11:00

pollyhampton ~ I think it's down to sites using different weather models. Also some of these weather websites, don't have much/any in the way of 'human thought' put into forecasts, so it's going straight from 'weather- model- to- weather- symbol' on the website. Even the metoffice with their weather symbols is like that, the important bit is the written stuff further down the page that's the 'proper' forecast.

Nice one ILikeyourHairyHands Throw a couple of snow balls around on my behalf!

Iloveautumnleaves · 30/01/2019 11:29

Met Office said ‘Snow & ice’.
BBC said ‘Sunny’.

...long boring story, but it caused a bit of a row yesterday because I was in a meeting so couldn’t make any phone calls or read this thread and the other person refused to because the BBC said it would be sunny. IF it had been snowing & those calls hadn’t been made the results could have been the kids failing external exams.

So on one hand I’m pleased the BBC were right, but on the other hand the ‘I told you’ and gloating are making me somewhat murderous. And WHY couldn’t he just make ONE call that would have stopped any stress?

I mean, who trusts the BBC over the Met Office!?

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 30/01/2019 13:05

Gloria is right.

The met office use a suite of different models to create their worded forecasts - much of their output is sold on to commercial interests.

The BBC use meteogroup, another good group that uses a variety of models. (but I don't know which model is used to generate the pictograms)

Accuweather use a different suite of models with lots of american models.

The problem is we all start relying on the little pictograms and they are just computer snapshots. The art of forecasting is in looking at different weather models with different starting conditions and blending these results.

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LadyRochfordsIcedGusset · 30/01/2019 14:33

Just seen how bad it is in the U.S. Midwest! Any MNetters there?

lubeybooby · 30/01/2019 14:55

Checking gfs for tomorrow looks like I'll get snow fairly constantly between 3pm and 9pm (South Shropshire)

the gfs runs all seem to have been pretty consistent with that at least, it's just the amount that's differed slightly (been checking since yesterday)

PAtothegruesometwosome · 30/01/2019 15:05

Is it a definite no for snow if Stafford tomorrow and into Friday? I've been pinning my hopes on it to snow after yesterday's no show of snow.

🙏

ILikeyourHairyHands · 30/01/2019 15:41

Just been out for a walk and sledging, it's very lovely out with no sign of melting.

Snow watch!
Snow watch!
Snow watch!
Lucyben14 · 30/01/2019 15:53

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

GloriaSmud · 30/01/2019 16:00

PAtothegruesometwosome ~ to be honest, I don't think anyone's really sure how far north this front is going to get so it's probably down to 'nowcasting' for tomorrow night now. Hopefully you'll get a wintry surprise when you wake up on Friday morning...

ILikeyourHairyHands ~ how pretty

GloriaSmud · 30/01/2019 16:06

Lucyben14 ~ at the moment, looking like you're in with a good chance there, probably starting late afternoon/early evening tomorrow and continuing most of the night.

Reastie · 30/01/2019 16:06

I think met office have just updated yellow warning to a darker yellow over much of the country tomorrow evening. I am right on the corner of the darker yellow bit in the south east so it may or may not get much.

Everybodylovesablankie · 30/01/2019 16:11

Gloria what do you think our chances are of seeing some snow in Leicestershire? A lot of wet sleety snow last night but nothing settled sadly 😩

GloriaSmud · 30/01/2019 16:24

Reastie ~ think you might be in with a good chance tomorrow night. You're right about the weather warnings, updated warnings to include ice and freezing fog from 10pm tonight.

Everybodylovesablankie ~ (I think you're S Leicestershire, aren't you?) Being south, you're probably in with more of a chance of seeing something wintry. Last night was rather disappointing so I'm hoping that the current GFS run (which is looking rather good for us), is on to something but I don't think anyone's really sure how far north this front is going to get at the moment so we might be in for another let down when it comes to Friday morning.

Everybodylovesablankie · 30/01/2019 16:34

Gloria I’m more towards Charnwood area. Fingers crossed we get some! I saw you had a dusting last night but there was nothing here at all so hoping it’s on it’s way!

GloriaSmud · 30/01/2019 16:41

Everybodylovesablankie ~ apologies, wrong bit of Leicestershire! We'll have to see, as I said to 'PAtothegruesometwosome' earlier, I think it'll be down to 'nowcasting' tomorrow night!

PAtothegruesometwosome · 30/01/2019 16:49

Gloria - are there any particular sites you use to look? I currently have weatheronline/metcheck/met office and BBC on the go and they all tell me a different story!

Can you tell I'm desperate for a whiteout?!?

Also, what do you think Coventry will be like? Am supposed to be at a meeting down there first thing on Friday which I'm reticent about if weather conditions are poor.

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 30/01/2019 17:17

I think the northerly edge of the system is in danger of getting no precipitation and the southerly edge is in danger of being sleet/rain instead. In between, it will be like any other shower system - some areas will get lots and some other areas will see hardly any.

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Titsywoo · 30/01/2019 17:20

When you say southerly edge what do you mean OYBBK? Just on the coast or further inland than that?

shecamefromgreece · 30/01/2019 17:22

We've had a pretty big dump of snow and schools are closed.
I'm in Altrincham (south of Manchester) and we never get snow the last time schools were closed was ten years ago.
It's still there but has melted a bit and main roads not too bad but slushy.
I'm dreading tomorrow as the temp is already dropping and driving on compacted frozen snow and slush is not funSad