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Weather

Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19

265 replies

GloriaSmud · 14/08/2018 11:08

TheWeatherOutlook have some early thoughts on Winter 2018 here and Autumn here.

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LadyFlumpalot · 03/01/2019 08:09

Also, did you know the Met Office has a You Tube channel? They have their ten day outlooks on there and I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on their last one (from yesterday). As I've mentioned before, my Dad was a senior Met Office bod before he retired and he's always told me that you need to read between the lines with these things.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 03/01/2019 08:15

Shock Ladyflumpalot.
That's some snowdrift!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 03/01/2019 08:36

I think with regards to the 10 day forecast I'd like to see more model consensus and colder temperatures over Europe.

At the moment, GFS brings back westerlies in about two weeks - with a cold potentially snowy flow for a time. But it's the sort of set up that brings transient snow and cold. ECMWF keeps the atlantic cut off at 10 days (that's as far as the public version goes) and introduces a NE feed which is interesting.

GloriaSmud · 03/01/2019 10:31

Interesting developments on the latest 06Z GFS ~ chance of wintry showers coming in from the east for next week?

Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19
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gttia · 03/01/2019 13:41

Oh dear!! I'm guessing we are looking at the back end of next week? X

Frouby · 03/01/2019 14:11

Nooooo, I bloody hate snow. Sorry snow lovers.

Am not looking forward to the next couple of months, I want a mild winter and an early spring, not months of freezing cold wind and wet, miserable days.

Make it go away.

GloriaSmud · 03/01/2019 14:46

gttia ~ for it at least getting colder, it looks like it.

Sorry Frouby. Perhaps it won't be as bad as last winter

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BlackeyedGruesome · 03/01/2019 15:15

yep. on thursday, west midlands, about 11 oclock. this is the time of an appointment we have been waiting for for two years. murphy will do his best to have snow, hoail, thunder, floods, broken down cars, sick children...

Highfever · 03/01/2019 22:20

None for Cornwall I hope.

GloriaSmud · 04/01/2019 10:21

Netweather's thoughts for next week ~ looks like there might be occasional snow but not so bad that it's 'clear the shops of bread and milk, winter is coming' yet.

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GloriaSmud · 04/01/2019 10:58

At the moment, it's looking like from the 13/14th January, some serious cold could be coming down from the north.
Not to be taken literally ~ precipitation-type chart for 15th January!

Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/01/2019 14:04

Looking at the ensembles, the operational (green line) was pretty much an outlier with most members warmer.

It doesn't I think yet link in with the SSW - it's more just ordinary winter weather iyswim.

Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19
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Grace212 · 05/01/2019 13:24

looking ahead on accuweather is worrying me - I hoped talk of the cold spell and snow was exaggerated. My mum won't get out at all if there's a snow spell. Seems to be a risk from 16th onwards - hoping that forecasting 12 days ahead isn't that accurate?

GloriaSmud · 05/01/2019 16:21

Grace212 ~ the GFS has had several runs where it shows something snowy around that date but it's way into the future to say for definite. The metoffice outlook mentions snow in the north/cold spells countrywide but isn't really committing to anything more. They think any possible snow/proper cold could be later/the last week of this month...

UK Outlook for Thursday 10 Jan 2019 to Saturday 19 Jan 2019:
Most areas will be dry on Thursday with some sunshine after an early frost. However, the far southeast will have rain showers and some rain will affect the northwest. On Friday cloud will extend to most parts from the northwest, accompanied by a rise in temperature. However, it will remain mostly dry, perhaps with heavier rain reaching the northwest later, where winds may also strengthen. Over the weekend and into the following week, the weather is set to become generally more changeable, with gales at times and bands of rain crossing from the west. Some snow is expected in the north, especially in brighter, showery, colder interludes between weather systems. The south and southeast can expect the best of any drier and brighter periods. Meanwhile, some frost is still likely.

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Sunday 3 Feb 2019:
The period may start with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, there could be some drier and brighter periods too. Temperatures will vary between mild and rather cold at times, with overnight frosts during settled spells. However, as the period progresses there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather becoming established generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are still possible.

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Grace212 · 05/01/2019 16:32

ah....keeping everything crossed for no snow and much mildness! Thanks.

GloriaSmud · 06/01/2019 14:56

Latest Outlook from the metoffice. Still going for cold around the 20th/towards the end of this month....

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Jan 2019 to Sunday 20 Jan 2019:
Friday will be cloudy for many, with the best of the brightness in the north. It will probably turn more unsettled from the northwest into Saturday, with heavy rain and strong winds followed by showers, and some snow is likely over higher ground in the north. Gales will be possible in the north and west, and it will turn colder from the northwest. The weather is set to become generally more changeable, with gales at times and bands of rain crossing from the west. Some snow is expected in the north, especially in brighter, showery, colder interludes between weather systems. The south and southeast can expect the best of any drier and brighter periods. Meanwhile, some overnight frost is still likely in clearer spells.

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jan 2019 to Monday 4 Feb 2019:
This period is likely to start with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, there could be some drier and brighter periods too, especially in the southeast. Temperatures will vary between mild and rather cold at times, with overnight frosts during settled spells. However, as the period progresses there is an increased likelihood of a change to colder weather becoming established generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are still possible.

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GloriaSmud · 06/01/2019 14:57

Missed this one ~ a weather warning for strong winds affecting parts of Scotland for tomorrow and Tuesday.

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Whywonttheyletmeusemyusername · 06/01/2019 23:15

Blatant place mark for when the going gets tough !!!!

GloriaSmud · 07/01/2019 07:46
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Whywonttheyletmeusemyusername · 07/01/2019 08:10

Sounds promising Gloria GrinGrin

GloriaSmud · 07/01/2019 08:48

It'll probably end up being a couple of frosty nights and that's it whywontthey ~ now I've got all that stock in!

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xsahm · 07/01/2019 08:54

Accuweather is showing up a good two week cold snap at the end of the month, is that still looking likely? It doesn't expect daytime temperatures to fall below 3/4c in the south though so I'm keeping a lid on snow hopes for now!

GloriaSmud · 07/01/2019 10:35

The metoffice seem to think so, xsahm
Latest Outlook....

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Jan 2019 to Sunday 20 Jan 2019:
Friday will be cloudy for many, with the best of the brightness in the north. It will probably turn more unsettled from the northwest into Saturday, with heavy rain and strong winds followed by showers, and some snow is likely over higher ground in the north. Gales will be possible in the north and west, and it will turn colder from the northwest. The weather is set to become generally more changeable, with gales at times and bands of rain crossing from the west. Some snow is expected in the north, especially in brighter, showery, colder interludes between weather systems. The south and southeast can expect the best of any drier and brighter periods. Meanwhile, some overnight frost is still likely in clearer spells.

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jan 2019 to Monday 4 Feb 2019:
This period is likely to start with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, there could be some drier and brighter periods too, especially in the southeast. Temperatures will vary between mild and rather cold at times, with overnight frosts during settled spells. However, as the period progresses there is an increased likelihood of a change to colder weather becoming established generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are still possible.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 07/01/2019 10:46

It does look like it will swing colder again, but the atlantic is persistent!

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