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Weather

Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19

265 replies

GloriaSmud · 14/08/2018 11:08

TheWeatherOutlook have some early thoughts on Winter 2018 here and Autumn here.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/12/2018 08:57

darn it. Outputs are not looking so good today. The metoffice haven't lost the faith with a colder spell coming up for mid January's on, but it looks as though the polar vortex split might end up badly aligned for us and not really produce very much.

hoochymama1 · 29/12/2018 11:32

Ah never mind. This may be better news for @whojamaflip- winter camp, brrr...
Met office say it will be colder here from Thursday (West Yorkshire)
Grin

OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/12/2018 12:09

Others aren't losing the faith as much as me!

GloriaSmud · 29/12/2018 17:09

I think the latest GFS run, especially at the end, is not without hope..

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/12/2018 17:47

It shows some reasonable cold building to the east doesn't it. Fingers crossed.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/12/2018 21:07

We might need to watch for some freezing fog at the end of the week in some places.

GloriaSmud · 30/12/2018 11:36

'Tis waaay into the future but snow risk map for the end of next week

Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19
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TokyoSushi · 30/12/2018 12:37

Ooh I'm just on the edge of one of those areas @GloriaSmud - tentatively excited!!

GloriaSmud · 30/12/2018 13:51

It's for the 11th January so don't get too excited just yet. We've had similar this winter before and it's all changed after a few days. Interestingly, the ECM (goes up to Wednesday, 9/1) also brings in some cold as well.
Think it's a case of just watching and waiting now to see what happens....

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Justmuddlingalong · 30/12/2018 17:02

Sips a hot chocolate...waiting.🤞

GloriaSmud · 31/12/2018 10:07
Xmas Smile
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GloriaSmud · 31/12/2018 16:49

According to this, a SSW is underway.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 01/01/2019 00:27

Happy New Year Weather Watchers!

GloriaSmud · 01/01/2019 00:32

Happy New Year, OYBBK Wine

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 01/01/2019 00:36
Wine :)
megletthesecond · 01/01/2019 00:42

Here's to another 12 months of excellent MN weather reports 🥂.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 01/01/2019 01:17

Grin Gin

perhapstomorrow · 01/01/2019 02:39

Sorry if I am asking a silly question, but as the SSW occurs over the north pole does this mean higher ground temps in the north pole? If this is the case, then this can't be a good thing as the ice will melt quicker. [Confused]

GloriaSmud · 01/01/2019 09:21

perhapstomorrow ~ I've done a 'Google' on this but can''t find an answer! I think an SSW does affect temperatures eventually but it's kind of a 'ripples through the atmosphere' thing.

This is quite good at explaining the stratosphere/SSWs.

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GloriaSmud · 01/01/2019 09:23

Latest Outlook from the metoffice ~ still thinks it's going to get colder....

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Jan 2019 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:
The first weekend of the New Year starts on a settled note, with many places dry with sunny spells after frosty starts, although some fog patches may be slow to clear. The far north and northwest may be cloudier with some drizzle over the hills, with these conditions perhaps spreading to eastern areas. This weather pattern continues into the following week, but by the end of the week there may be a change to more unsettled conditions for most areas, particularly in the north. Periods of rain and strong winds, interspersed with brighter showery periods are possible, with a risk of some hill snow in the north, but perhaps to lower levels at times too. Rather cold to start, but temperatures probably recovering closer to average with some milder interludes.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:
It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These conditions may then continue to the end of the month, but some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

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GloriaSmud · 01/01/2019 09:49

Today looks like being the last 'mild-ish' day for a while as things turn colder (and with hopefully brighter spells, so we see some sun.) Some New Year thoughts from TheWeatherOutlook and Netweather.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 01/01/2019 10:20

When we had the 'beast from the east' in Feb/March, arctic temperatures were 10-20c warmer than usual. In fact parts of Greenland had temperatures above freezing in February.

perhapstomorrow · 01/01/2019 11:52

Thanks for the link Gloria. Makes a bit more sense now.

@ohyoubadbadkitten that is a shocking rise on temps!! 😯

Dockray · 01/01/2019 12:27

I went over to Netweather and got rather over excited so ordered new sledges. Hope I haven't cursed it...

OhYouBadBadKitten · 01/01/2019 13:53

It is Perhaps.

That's torn it Dockray!

I'm just a bit sceptical that this is going to deliver much to us if I'm honest. I still think the european part of the split vortex is going to go too far east, even if it does propagate down to the troposphere.

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