Snow watch 2017/18 Part 2

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Just in case we need this early next week

Well even BBC weather are on about 'the big freeze' already, let's hope it's a good one!! ❄️

Thanks for the updates 👍

It's coming into the sort of time frame that I'm comfortable with talking about. It does look very likely that we are going to experience some very cold weather with biting easterly winds. (add moisturiser and chapstick to shopping lists) .

Snow risks are highest after Sunday and are primarily in the East. I'd say at the moment that Kent and Essex are in the biggest firing line, but also perhaps those in the Thames valley heading through and beyond. Also, perhaps Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire. These are not exclusive regions, nor are they guaranteed. However these are the areas I'd expect to see to be affected in this sort of set up.

For once the NW should see some respite.

There is potential for this to be a notable affair, especially considering that we are going into March.

March is Spring. Winter & snow can bugger off.

faced here.

OYBBK Can you cheer me up & assure me that we are in for a scorchio summer?

lol!! I was refusing to commit to next week until today!

Think there might be some snow warnings coming out Thursday/Friday if the models carry on with the way they are.

Some thoughts from TheWeatherOutlook. I'm noting this bit - at this stage it is impossible quantify the risk because disturbances in the flow are often picked up by computer models at short range. In general terms the pattern suggests heavy snow is initially most likely in the south and east.

That's quite a statement from TWO

I'm torn between cheering it on in a 'I love interesting weather way' or saying 'nooooo, it's Spring and it's going to cause all sorts of issues'.

For those who are curious, the last notable March snowfall was in 2013

nice article

Other interesting late winters to look at include 1947

I know - I spotted some daffodils on my travels this morning - poor things are going to get a right shock next week! DD1 and I were mulling over how to get her to college (place in the middle of nowhere) and how she might make up for any work she misses in the event of snow. We've come to the (obvious!) conclusion that there's no point worrying about it for a few days, we can't control the weather; it is what it is. Interesting times ahead though.

Ah yes March 2013 - memorable Easter holiday in Wales (static caravan with no central heating, only small heaters in bedrooms/small gas fire in lounge sort of thing.) It was very pretty and all but I remember the chap who delivered the gas bottles to the caravans at the site was very busy the week we were there

We camped in a tent one Easter in the snow.
I honestly thought we might die of cold that night

Can I just point out Gloria's post on page 7 of this thread, dated 7 Feb:

"...SSW in the 2nd half of February. Things might get very cold."

If this cold weather happens, I will be suggesting a bloodless coup of Carol Kirkwood and the immediate installation of Gloria.

Oh gosh, Pavo

I'm in Kent on the south east London border - uht milk in the shopping this week!!

I'm in Kent on the south east London border - uht milk in the shopping this week!!

gttia** you can freeze milk, perhaps just leave a few pints outside the back door

Massive online shop delivered today. Stupid me....guaranteed it will all be gone next week, and we'll be snowed in and starving !!!!

On Twitter they are saying 20cm I'm panicking. Work, school etc! It's makes me anxious when I've got stuff going on.

‘Ello ‘ello ‘ello!

Any snow for us Londoners in this upcoming snowmageddon?

Makes note to locate the kids’ hats and gloves again...

whatthefox - you could well see some snow.

Interesting QuickChat from John Hammond.

And latest Outlooks from the metoffice

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:
Turning progressively colder with a brisk easterly wind making it feel very cold. Mainly dry and bright, but the risk of snow showers in the east by Sunday. Widespread frost.

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018:
Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 21 Mar 2018:
At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March

Think tomorrow/Friday, things will start getting more detailed when it comes to forecasts (and possibly bring weather warnings.)

gttia, who is forecasting 20cm? for which day?

We know it will be very cold. But how much snow very much depends on where the high pressure ends up and therefore how much trough disruption we get and which direction the winds go in.
It's possible some places in the east and south will get a lot of snow. It's also possible that this ends up being a very deep but dry cold.

It's important to warn about the risk of snow, because if it occurs there will be a lot. But I also don't want to hype up the probability to the point that people think that snow is definite. It's quite possible that we will only get 12 hours or so of warning before snow occurs.

There's a chance that by Wednesday we end up with days that don't go above 0 at all.

While people are doing big shops, they might want to consider any outdoor pipes - outdoor taps but also the little condensing pipes from their boiler if they have that kind. Turn off non essential ones and lag what you can.

Having said all that at the moment (and this may well change) Wednesday into Thursday are showing snow potential with gfs showing a shift in wind direction to NE.

Thanks for the heads up re taps, OYBBK. Earlier this week I just turned my outside one on again as I thought Spring was here.

Sorry if I’m repeating something that is already asked. But....is any snow in London likely?

Please no snow in London next Thursday night, I have a flight to catch!
Hopefully my Mancunian presence in the capital will ward off any of the white stuff!