Christmas weather guess thread!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Christmas eve is in the GFS model range woo hoo!!!
I’m an amateur, don’t rely on my forecasts etc etc, at this range it is entirely a guess, the models will change.....


I only have time for an instantaneous forecast at the moment -
GFS says: cold and settled.

back later for a better forecast.

[leesmum]

Proper heavy snow now in North Manchester, apparently the roads haven't been gritted either so are treacherous

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I’ll be honest, I’m startled.

[anyoldname76]

weve just had really heavy snow in Staffordshire, it was white over in minutes, most of the snow from the weekend disappeared today with the rain

[fortyfourfeasts]

Am quietly excited

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It’s not snowy on this run, but it is pretty chilly, with potential for snow showers along the east coast on Christmas day.

[GloriaSmud]

'Chilly' is in the right direction at least!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

You know, I think GFS may be onto something. It might be struggling with the timing - it now shows the potential for snow midway between Christmas and New Year, but it is being pretty consistent with the trend at present.

[GloriaSmud]

I've been noticing that as well. We might not get snow for Christmas but something wintry could well arrive in the days after.

[RatOnnaStick]

Would be nice. BBC just shows gloom and 8-9° on Christmas Eve for me . A little hoar frost and sunny blue skies would be enough to please me.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Don’t look tonight, it’s depressing

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It’s still very much a guessing game. This mornings run shows a very nice Christmas Eve- Boxing day. Settled, dry, frosty by night for many.

We shan’t talk about what it shows after that

[Sallycinnamum]

Ooh tell us more!

[GloriaSmud]

Sallycinnamum Let's just say it doesn't looking very festive in the days after Christmas But it is 10 days away so a long time into the future when it comes to weather.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It looks as though the atlantic rises up and washes over the whole of the uk after that

[ElizaDontlittle]

wet then!
I'm working with rough sleepers over Christmas - so dry is good, cold less so...
Anyway, I get to come home to a warm house afterwards so I'm the fortunate one really.

[GloriaSmud]

Looking chilly for Christmas Day and hilly areas of the UK might get snow

Boxing Day ~ awful. Low pressure system sits right over the UK, possibly bringing snow for Scotland. For the rest of the UK, really not nice at all. Chilly and wet with gales/high winds for most of England, but really awful for the coastlines of Wales, the SW and the S coast of England, then later hits the west coasts of Scotland, Ireland and SW Ireland. Think there might be weather warnings coming out for that if it continues to be forecast.

The following days ~ temperatures drop, chance of snow for some.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Thanks Gloria, Boxing day does look grim doesn't it. Snow will depend on the exact position of that low.
I'm not sure about the following days though, could be quite mobile with milder westerlies.

[colouringinagain]

Crossing everything for a cold bright Christmas day. I've sooooooo had enough of the mild, grey wet ones...

[ClashCityRocker]

Is anyone finding the temperature much lower than forecast? Last time I looked we were supposed to be 6-7 degrees, but it didn't get above 2 degrees all day.

[BlackeyedSusan]

gloria and oybbk, thanks for doing this.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Clash it does seem to be consistently lower. Where snow persists that seems to be normal, but we've had none here and we keep not hitting predicted temperatures.

You're welcome Blackeyed :)

[GloriaSmud]

Thank you, Blackeyed

Latest run, while not exactly wintry for Christmas Day, shows things looking a little more festive for some from late Boxing Day onwards.
Boxing Day storm ~ not totally disappeared but not looking as bad as yesterday.

[GloriaSmud]

Latest GFS for Christmas Day has a band of rain moving southwards over the country with cold following on behind. Scotland might see some snow showers after the rain clears.

Boxing Day ~ low pressure system moves across England. Strong northerly winds for SW and south coasts. Rain and possibly hill snow for England, sunny and cold in Scotland.

Wednesday onwards ~ cold/sunny in Scotland. Chilly, band of rain/hill snow for England before clearing. Thursday sees a rain band moving in but as it hits the cold, the GFS has it turning to snow as it moves across the country. Netweather has this for precipitation type for that day ~ might be one to watch

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

oh cool! Thanks Gloria, hadn't had chance to have a look today. One of those days where computer says no!

[GloriaSmud]

Was that down to Christmas busy-ness or misbehaving computer? If misbehaving computer, I'd stand over it, holding a rolling pin and glare at it menacingly!

That band of rain for Thursday became a band of rain for the south, sleety, possibly snow mix for the middle and snow for Scotland in the run afterwards. Actually I'm tending to think of the days from Boxing Day onwards as 'a wintry mush' (much like the Christmas dinner leftovers!)