Autumn Gales

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Met office warnings

Nothing exceptional, but it is early and trees are in full leaf so are vulnerable. 3 days of strong winds in various places coming up. Tomorrow night into Wednesday we could see gusts to 70mph across northern Wales and northern England. It could be pretty disruptive.

It looks like it could still be a tropical storm as it grazes the west side of Ireland.

from NOAA

Heard about this at lunchtime on the weather forecast and netweather have a bit here about it.

I'm keeping an eye on this as we're going to be on holiday, not far from Exeter (so not in the warning zone but not far from it) on Monday.....right on the coast....in a static caravan.
Wonderful.

The met office think it will stay to the west of Ireland, but you should keep an eye on the path.

Yes, will do.
DH's going on about how he's always wanted to be by the sea when it's stormy

yes, that’s nice, but not in a caravan! Fortunately you’re the right person for the job for keeping an eye on things!

Oh no ~ I'm going to have to make it sound like I know what I'm talking about again, aren't I?!

but you do :)

We have a separate Ophelia thread going, but while all eyes are on that storm this rather nasty looking system has snuck into the gfs models for next Saturday.

Its going to be storm after storm til spring at this rate lol

Looks like London won’t be affected by Ophelia (highs of 24 ) on Monday, but do we need to keep an eye for next Saturday? Mind you, we don’t get much exciting weather in London...

It’s still there in this mornings models Fox London would very much cop that one!

Oh my.

I’d better keep an eye on this thread then OYBBK.

don’t worry, I’m in the firing line too, I’ll be keeping a close eye on this one!

Little place mark here for the second storm info!

@GloriaSmud there is a hotel built into the cliff in Tenby where the dining room has huge plate glass windows that look out over the sea. We were there for a wedding and it was very spectacular to see the wind whipping the waves while we were eating. Perhaps a location like that would be best for storm watching definitely avoid a caravan

:) it is early days yet and there are a range of solutions in the models from a really deep nasty little weather bomb, to generally just wet and windy.

@Woollybacks
We normally don't stock up when it comes to meals when we're down this way but we've just got a few meals in just in case. Am watching the models a little anxiously.

while we all watch what Ophelia does today, Saturday’s potential storm still looks pretty potent at present.

Remarkable consistency for saturday in gfs still, though the track and intensity bounces around somewhat.

ECMWF has come on board now with developing a deep low pressure friday night into saturday. Solutions still range from wild and wet to full on storm. However, I am quite relieved to see that most of the models show the area filling rather than deepening as it crosses.

Areas most at risk at present, southern Ireland, southern Wales and southern England.

Think there'll be some wind warnings coming out for that in the next day or two.

I agree Gloria. It’s probably a bit too early for the met office to warn about this given the uncertainty.

Thanks for keeping an eye on it OYBBK and Gloria. Interesting times.

It’s not looking so bad on this mornings run :) gusting to 60mph on the south coast, around 50mph inland. So enough to bring down branches. I think the met office might issue a yellow warning today perhaps for along the south coast and across the SW. The low pressure looks fairly daunting as it approaches, but fills, hence the more reasonable outlook.