Autumn Gales

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Met office warnings

Nothing exceptional, but it is early and trees are in full leaf so are vulnerable. 3 days of strong winds in various places coming up. Tomorrow night into Wednesday we could see gusts to 70mph across northern Wales and northern England. It could be pretty disruptive.

Um, so camping on a small island in the Irish Sea on 30th September is not the best idea?

let me have a look :)

Based on today's gfs run Biddy, I'd invest in some good delta pegs

Oh dear!!

Something to add to the list - and it makes me more certain that buying a small (but decent!) 2 man tent to lie low to the ground is better than taking the 4 man I normally use on scouting activities (I will be alone in this tent and as it is Scouts not Cubs, I don't need half a household of spare gear and blankets and first aid stuff for the little darlings on this occasion - their main leader will have anything that's necessary!!).

Thanks OYBBK

Sounds like some good planning Biddy!!

GFS is still showing wet and perhaps slightly wild weather at the beginning of October. Make the most of any lovely bits this month.

fwiw - ECMWF has just come into that range and doesn't show gales for us at all!!! it shows a blocking high out in the atlantic and settled weather for us.

Please could I order some nice weather for DS1 for Sunday, he's cycling 100 miles near Birmingham and whilst I want him to be safe and dry I'm more concerned about me getting soaked and miserable waiting for him .

Which model do we believe? Time will tell I suppose, weather is so fascinating because it's so unpredictable.

Sunday looks fine at the moment, cool, bit of a breeze, dry.

ECMWF seems to have had a better handle on Irma and Jose than GFS did. It will be interesting to see which is better for us this time.

Cool, bit of a breeze, dry. Thank you for putting the celestial order in, that's exactly what a boy needs to do an epic bike ride. If you could see to it that the forecast remains that way I might find a way to tip you

I was just checking the path of Maria and noticed this swirling around between the uk and Iceland. Is it likely to turn into something, or is it just an enormous but completely normal event?

link here

Yikes! Please let it be nothing, I haven't fixed my roof yet

That's fine cup, very much an east west split over the next few days with wet and windy weather in the west, the further east you go, the nicer the weather pretty much. Nothing too drastic in the west though, just normal wet and windy stuff.

Beginning of october (next weekend!) and then into mid october we are looking at a rather unsettled spell with the potential for gales, perhaps severe later on.

Both Lee and Maria look to be heading in our general direction. Is this something I should be worried about? I have an exam in October and need to travel between London & Leeds. Do I need to worry about travel disruption?

I've not been commenting on ex Maria and Lee simply because every model is wildly different and I have no clue what will happen at the moment.

Eeek, I hunted down this thread especially for OBBK's view on what to do about Maria. I'm organising a charity event (all outside...) on Sunday from 10-2 and the forecast is not looking great at the moment. We're in Cornwall though and the weather rarely does what is forecast in advance so I'm hoping it will either hit earlier or later...

I'm still not sure pigeon. Showery and blowy seems most likely.

Thanks! I'll keep checking back... Its very showery and blowy today.

Eeeek, are the remnants of Maria and Lee coming our way?

How much weather will we be getting?

It will be affecting our weather this weekend and into Monday, but to what extent....?

I'm watching an interesting kink starting to show in the isobars of the gfs model for Monday. I'm going to keep a very close eye on how that evolves and in general the weather Sunday/Monday. It has the potential to be 'interesting' I think. But I don't feel ready to talk about specifics yet.

Thanks OYBBK. Will keep an eye out for your posts as things become clearer.

met office update on why we know more about what will happen at the end of next week than we do this weekend!

met office warnings for much of the west on Sunday into Monday. I think there will be some flash upgrades to the warning as we reach Sunday or Monday.

thanks. weather man mentioned it on the 5 to 8 weather.

will keep an eye on it.

The main risk is for flooding at present, but there is potential for some embedded wilder weather.

cool Blackeyed :)