Badkitten's 'Will it snow at Christmas?' thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, the moment has come

The 19th December - when many kids break from school has appeared in the GFS charts.....

I'm going to do my best to update this at least once each day, but bear with me if life interferes a bit. My usual disclaimer: I'm only an amateur and I get things wrong. I dont say this out of false modesty but because its true and for important forecasts and for making decisions please refer to the met office.

Also at this range the forecast will be complete crap anyway and will change daily. As we get closer to the Christmas holidays other models will come into range and things will start to become more accurate - hopefully!

So:

Friday 19th (GFS) - The day starts off cold with temps around freezing. Some precipitation but it looks to err on the wrong side of frozen (ie not). Europe isnt looking cold for this time of year and so we are looking to our north and north west for the cold at this point.
That's as far as the model goes but later in the day I would expect it to end up in single fig temps. Might update this on the next model run.

Thanks Kitten, really appreciate your threads on the weather - particularly wintry weather

Oh I love the weather threads.

I live in Norway (on mumsnet coz we are relocating to uk next year) - LOADS of snow here :)

SE.
Clear sky, full moon and many stars but already only 2 degrees. Oh dear.
Feels horribly damp cold outside despite the clear sky .

No way is it "mild".

Cold and clear here tonight - DH had to take DS1 to football training.

I expect it to be frosty in the morning.

I am off out early doors with DD - part of her birthday ritual is a trip round the Christmas Markets and a hot chocolate from one of the stalls - I think we will need it this time!

Icy underfoot here, time for the grippy boots!

Where you relocating to scandimaw

There was some snow on Snowdon last month I think?

Love this thread, we're off to the Scottish Highlands for new year so really hoping to see some snow up there.

Thanks OYBBK

I don't have high hopes for a white Christmas here in SE Wales but you never know!

Silent there was most definitely snow on Snowdon last month and there is snow there presently. Very very cold here at the foot of Snowdon. Woolly jumpers, many layers, Sheepskin boots on, gritters have been out in force for the last week and my fire is blazing every day.
Are you local Silent?

Definitely will be white here - Live in Eastern Canada. Love a bit of snow - not the cold though, it was minus 14 on Tuesday! Brr.

Ooh Muchtoo I'm SE Wales aswell

Snow is only allowed here after 21st Dec I thank you

We have an ice warning here for tomorrow (North Wales) but I'm not holding out much hope of snow for now, I'm all of 400 yards from the coast so it has to be pretty serious before we get any. Although when I walked home in the rain last night, the air and the rain felt like snow, and I suspect that same shower will have been actual snow higher up and further inland.

Kind of torn on Christmas snow - probably not traveling abroad this year for once so it wouldn't be so problematic and I do love the atmosphere. On the other hand, our council is useless and three years ago when we actually had a few inches of the stuff stick around for a bit we had no rubbish collections or mail delivery for a month. And before you have visions of me in a windswept cottage on a remote Welsh hillside, I live in a town, a stone's throw from the county's largest hospital.

Frost on all the cars round here looks so pretty!

Morning all, woke up to -4C here

Friday 19th (GFS) The magic -5C 850hpa line appears today for all away from the SW and Wales. Remember its still way in advance!! With a coldish north westerly feed Wintery showers possible.

Saturday 20th (GFS) The Azores high very irritatingly drifts up bringing milder air. Wet for many, heavy snow over northern hills and mountains.

Sunday 21st (GFS) mild and wet

Early Monday 22nd Azores high begins to retreat again cooling things down.

I'm afraid that until that Azores high sinks away properly this theme could play out in reality. We need a pattern change to bring in sustained winter weather.

Milli, I'm not but my family are.

No mention of snow on the Met Office Xmas/New Year predictions:

UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Dec 2014 to Saturday 3 Jan 2015:

The rest of December through into the first few days of the New Year will most likely to stay unsettled and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. It is likely that the UK will see cloudy periods with spells of rain, but that these will probably be interspersed by clearer and colder conditions with showers, which turn wintry over northern hills. The most unsettled conditions are likely in the north/west, whilst there may be more in the way of dry and settled spells of weather across the south/east at times. Temperatures will likely be around, or slightly above average for the time of year but still with overnight frosts, particularly over the north.

Marking place!!

Silent - 'Wintry over northern hills' is actually alluding to snow in hilly areas.

Fair enough....I wondered but then wasn't sure either. Thanks.

I am living in the tropics and have just done my Christmas shopping this morning in 30 degrees surrounded by glitzy Christmas trees and decorations: surreal! Am wistfully yearning after a snowy, crisp English Christmas ;)

Poor DD has D of E training in snowdonia today - she is wearing lots of layers!

Frosty here in Greater Manchester this morning.

I may have to resort to a Gluhwein at the Christmas Markets.

At least Afflecks Palace will be warm!