Weather warnings part 3 - February storms.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Really hoped we wouldnt need another thread so soon.

Tomorrow we have one dangerous storm with winds potentially 90mph off welsh coasts, 80mph inland and hitting Ireland very hard too.

met office warnings for heavy rain (exactly where we dont need it but also hitting western scotland), snow, perhaps even down to lower ground at times over night even pretty far south and storm force winds. Also widespread gales across England.

Then friday night into Saturday we have another potentially damaging low. The models have really struggled with this one and it needs a careful eye keeping on it.

Because the winds look so bad tomorrow for some (enough in the amber areas for me to suggest that you consider whether your journey is essential), I'll be logging on around 7:15am to update. My biggest concern is western Wales in the afternoon. However the track may change as the storm develops so the amber warning area may shift. It is possible that the met office may issue some red warnings close to the morning.

Looking further on, although storms may track to their more usual position (north of scotland) as the month goes on, unfortunately the rain looks set to continue, with little in the way of respite.

arrghh cross posts. breezy take off then

beginnings, no it wont have passed I'm afraid, you will be driving at the peak of it. Sorry to be blunt! You'd be looking at gusts of around 60, and just possibly 70mph for a little while, so it depends what you feel personally is an acceptable risk. I wouldnt do it with a caravan. If you could leave earlier and find a travelodge for the main part of the night I think that would be the safest option. Certainly allow plenty of time for your journey so you can travel at a speed you feel comfortable with.

breezy d&p but apart from knock on effects from earlier in the day shouldnt cause too many issues hopefully.

Thanks for all your updates OYBBK

Not at all Excuse :)

thanks oybbk as long as we can get to the a3/m25 should be fine.I'm compulsively early anyway

Thank you so much. Shit. Off to have a tricky convo with DH. The DDs are 21 months and 4 months so we're in a permanent state of exhaustion and I'm not sure it's worth the risk in those conditions.

You're a star OYBBK, a true national service! Thank you for keeping us all safe.

Thank you OYBBK. The train service has been awful and basically stopped running. The bus goes down the motorway and has been faily good so far but I may sleep easier at a hotel at the airport. And I can make my way to my MIL's house in London the next morning if the flight is cancelled.

Quick follow up - if we go tomorrow night instead will it be calmer

You are really welcome both. Sorry beginnings that I didnt have more positive news for you.

Yes, it will be beginnings, much better :) (better sea journey too I should think!)

It would be what I would be doing oranges. It may well be fine, but theres a reasonable chance that it wouldnt be.

Did we hear back from MillyBlodyn? Is she OK?

I'm worrying a bit now... We have to drive to Bristol airport from Cheltenham at lunch time. Flight is at 3pm and no idea if everything is going to go as planned!

mrsquagmire ~ there was a post yesterday at 11.29am from Milly. She seems OK but had a bit of storm damage.

Very much 'quiet before the storm' here (Leicester) this morning ~ dull, not much wind and 4.3C.

Thanks Gloria, just found it - poor Milly.

Down here in the central south it is pretty quiet so far, just light rain.

Thanks OYBBK, ferry booking changed to Sunday morning. We looked at the met office maps and even we can see it's the right plan!

:) I'm really please you could do that beginnings. It should make it a much happier journey!

I don't think the rain hit us quite as hard as expected in my town, but elsewhere in Cornwall and Devon roads have flooded. There are also already some trees down further west into Cornwall, but the wind hasn't really got up yet- I know it's not really supposed to until this evening.

So I am starting to hope the met office have overestimated the severity of the storm, although perhaps that is a bit optimistic!

Really windy and rainy where we are, but probably not storm levels

Anybody got any idea what is supposed to be happening next week?

No real change to the forecast other than a slight increase in wind speeds. It is possible that gusts will reach 90mph on exposed headlands tonight with 80mph gusts generally on SE coasts possible. There is still a fairly substantial risk of 70mph gusts late tonight even into the London area (so if you are having a night out on the town you might want to consider transport disruption.) and through southern EA.

In fact I've just checked the met office warnings here which substantiates my thoughts.

The rain at present is coming from a fragmenting warm front. Its when the cold front comes through later that the rain fall will substantially increase. A lot of moist warm air is being dragged up from southern Europe in this system. The storm hasnt really started to affect us yet, its a bit of a long haul one this one and so it shouldnt be written off yet.

Rufus, damp at times but less stormy. Please see post timed 08:59.

Read it now, thanks for the information

We are away for half term and I don't want to drown!

Interesting to see that the storm isn't at its peak yet, we normally get mild weather in the south but some of the waves on the coast are spectacular

Just read that Harper Adams University in Shropshire recorded a gust of 93.9mph late Wednesday afternoon. No wonder half Newport was blacked out.