Weather warnings part 3 - February storms.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Really hoped we wouldnt need another thread so soon.

Tomorrow we have one dangerous storm with winds potentially 90mph off welsh coasts, 80mph inland and hitting Ireland very hard too.

met office warnings for heavy rain (exactly where we dont need it but also hitting western scotland), snow, perhaps even down to lower ground at times over night even pretty far south and storm force winds. Also widespread gales across England.

Then friday night into Saturday we have another potentially damaging low. The models have really struggled with this one and it needs a careful eye keeping on it.

Because the winds look so bad tomorrow for some (enough in the amber areas for me to suggest that you consider whether your journey is essential), I'll be logging on around 7:15am to update. My biggest concern is western Wales in the afternoon. However the track may change as the storm develops so the amber warning area may shift. It is possible that the met office may issue some red warnings close to the morning.

Looking further on, although storms may track to their more usual position (north of scotland) as the month goes on, unfortunately the rain looks set to continue, with little in the way of respite.

I would certainly plan on delaying it slowloris til later in the day.

I just had a look at the flood warnings here: www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/142151.aspx

There are loads of flood alerts and warnings across the country. In the SW there is a flood warning for the Cornish coast from Penzance to Plymouth at high tide times in the evening and also a flood warning for the River Lynher around high tide times in the morning and evening.

It looks like almost every river in the south has a flood alert, as well as lots elsewhere.

Really hope things are not as bad as expected and everyone stays safe tomorrow :(

This may already have been mentioned, but for those of you in the amber areas, do keep checking here to see if the status has changed.

We were amber on Tuesday for yesterday, but they changed our area up to red yesterday morning. As I wrote yesterday, I was already at work and hadn't been able to do any preparation at home. I arrived home and it was already dark with no power and I was scrabbling around, scared to death, looking for candles, torches etc.

Driving from here to Bournemouth we follow the river stour/lower stour, a few of the villages we drive through have flooded ( but soon clear once the rain stops ). The river seems to have gone down today but is still high ( burst it's banks, but no way near as high as it was last weekend ), the road in and out of our village also floods . At the moment the roads are ok but if we get more rain tomorrow it might be tricky to get out ( and I hate driving in the wind ).

So just managing to get back on here after yesterday, 13 hours of no leccy, trees lifted out of the ground, and a very shakey DS after a horrific bus journey home, after they closed the school.
Have to admit i was so scared here in West Wales, it was the noise more then anything, (and tree watching!).. the weirdest thing was - all the windows kind of 'misted' over (on the outside) as the afternoon wore on, people here reckon it was seasalt deposits.. got to the point i could hardly see outside, odd thing is, we're 20 mins drive from the sea.

Mind you looking back, chasing a huge heavy coalbunker as it tried to escape through our gate was kinda funny, especially as just trying to remain upright was tricky

Awful jellykat :(

Jellykat, I can imagine your coalbunker incident.
When I got out of the car I was caught up in a whirlwind of the contents of someone's recycling wheelie bin, getting banged about the head by an empty chickpeas tin and several plastic Evian bottles smashed me in the face. Was scared and angry at the time but I bet it did look funny.
Glad you're ok and isn't it bliss when the electricity comes back on!

D'oh it was 23 hours of no leccy, i can't even add anymore.
Am very aware i shouldn't winge as it could be a lot worse.. Thanks for the warning OYBK! because of you i cancelled my appt yesterday, and had i've gone, id've been stranded for hours on the other side of The Preselis.
Yes Herdy, thank you, boy i love leccy!

Could anyone tell me what it's like in Portsmouth please? Supposed to be taking dcs for long weekend and they are so excited.
Not sure what to do or how journey will be (from Birmingham throuh oxford reading way)

Jelly, so glad you are ok and have electric again. That was an awful day wasn't it, glad you are all safe, I've been wondering and waiting for you to post. Sleep well, see you in the morning.

Portsmouth is going have some pretty strong gales tonight

Happy to report that following this thread and my own careful observations, I changed my planned Saturday Caen to Portsmouth ferry crossing to yesterday. There was a bit of a bumpy passage mid-channel, but nothing remotely uncomfortable. Am now happily settled in with DD and DGDs for half-term.

S.Herts
Only 2.6 degrees atm. Hoping to get in an early dog walk without rain as the pm is forecast to be horrible, before I prance off to the dance hall for 10am.

Thanks spotty and emily. Emily I'm glad you made the trip when you did then. Enjoy your half term.
I will rethink our trip. I am one of the lucky ones who has a choice and knows I will be okay if we stay at home.
To those of you in the middle of it all, stay safe.

Sorry fanjo, missed your question as I was in bed. Are you going road or rail and what time are you heading off?

If you are going soon I think other than driving through a lot of rain and surface water you will be ok. The winds will pick up through the day but not reach their peak til mid evening. Looking at 70mph gusts in Portsmouth I think overnight. Tomorrow although the main band of rain will move away, sharp squally showers are likely perhaps with hail and thunder.

Will be able to do a better forecast in a little bit :)

warnings as they stand at present.

Urgh, travelling to Llanelli for my big giant needles of doom, at least on the way back I'll be sedated

What do you reckon about driving from Manchester to Cornwall tomorrow (Saturday)?

we have high sided van which wind catches looking at forecasts don't think were going anywhere

With care Jane I think you will be fine. By the time you get further south the worst should be blown over. It wont be pleasant, it will still be gusting to around 50mph for much of your journey and there could be some nasty squally showers.

Its not a great start to half term is it?

OYBBK I've looked at the answers you've given others but still can't make up my mind so thought I'd ask my question if that's ok!

We're due to drive from south east London to Holyhead leaving at 1am tomorrow morning to catch a ferry to Ireland at 9am. Stena think they will be sailing but I'm more concerned about a night drive cross country. Will the storm have passed?

Thanks so much.

Ok -

Today: Rain has already arrived. Some of the models have another 40mm of rain showing for the SW and 25mm or so for the south in general but lots of heavy rain for everyone other than northern scotland which eventually will have snow, or the usual pennines/Welsh hills etc which may have snow instead.

Through much of the day the wind will be gusty, but strengthening. In the south by mid afternoon gusts look to be in the order of 50-60mph and by the evening the SW coast will be reaching 70mph.

Overnight it looks as though the south coast will see coastal gusts 70-80mph. and inland gusts over around 60mph. Be warned though, some of the models have inland gusts of 70mph right into Hampshire and Dorset. With the heavy rain its going to be a rough old night. Well worth glancing round your garden and securing/removing dodgy fence panels etc.

Tomorrow: The wind takes a long time to subside and the rain gets replaced with heavy squally showers perhaps with thunder and hail.

Sunday: For most, a lovely morning, but some cloud and light rain will move in through the afternoon.

After that: Well, its not a dry picture, but for the moment it is a signficantly improved picture. I think we can relax about mid week, the ensemble members have stopped showing a potential midweek storm. However, I dont know that this whole horrible time is finished for the winter, some of the ensembles reintroduce the very disturbed weather later on in the timer period. But for now, we can try to make the most of half term (for those who have half term this week)

I need this storm to pass through quick, flight from Heathrow tomorrow afternoon. I really hope it's one if the "not as bad as expected" varieties.