Weather warnings part 3 - February storms.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Really hoped we wouldnt need another thread so soon.

Tomorrow we have one dangerous storm with winds potentially 90mph off welsh coasts, 80mph inland and hitting Ireland very hard too.

met office warnings for heavy rain (exactly where we dont need it but also hitting western scotland), snow, perhaps even down to lower ground at times over night even pretty far south and storm force winds. Also widespread gales across England.

Then friday night into Saturday we have another potentially damaging low. The models have really struggled with this one and it needs a careful eye keeping on it.

Because the winds look so bad tomorrow for some (enough in the amber areas for me to suggest that you consider whether your journey is essential), I'll be logging on around 7:15am to update. My biggest concern is western Wales in the afternoon. However the track may change as the storm develops so the amber warning area may shift. It is possible that the met office may issue some red warnings close to the morning.

Looking further on, although storms may track to their more usual position (north of scotland) as the month goes on, unfortunately the rain looks set to continue, with little in the way of respite.

OYBBK... my mum's supposed to be driving up on Saturday morning from Kent to Norfolk. Do you think there's likely to be major disruption?

Ok, a bit of a one off forecast for the moment and then I'll catch up with you all again later. A little wiped out today but a nap and a rest will sort me I'm sure.

ambers for wind too now along the south coast unsurprising.

Its two issues really. The rain, which will arrive tomorrow morning. Effectively we will have about 24 hours of rain in the south, with a little respite part way through. Maybe 30mm in the SW 15-25 mm elsewhere in the south.

The winds become a real problem tomorrow night. Looking at 80mph along the south coast and 70mph even pretty far in land in the SE. Please dont underestimate the strength. Its an order of magnitude down from yesterdays storms but nevertheless, once it gets to about 50mph you start to notice it and 70mph is enough to rearrange roof tiles. By saturday morning it should begin to calm down to leave a day of squally showers with hail and thunder.

Longer term. I'm not sure. It depends whether the ridge of high pressure to our south builds sufficiently. There is a lot of optimism in the media and some forecasting forums, but I'm not ready to be optimistic about it yet - there keeps being hints of a storm mid week in various guises. As gfs farted about with this weekends storm with it being on and off again I will reserve judgment until after tomorrows storm. Even if the high pressure does build there seems to be a lot of moisture associated with it and warm temps so I'd be thinking big beefy showers.

Will be back with to answer questions later (though I might hang around making inane comments for a bit!)

OYBBK I just wanted to jump in while you're there to say thank you for all of your hard work on here. You sound really busy, and I think there are a lot of demands on you through your posting on here, so I appreciate it can't be easy.

I usually keep a close eye on the weather, and so I was aware it might be a bit windy yesterday but I had NO idea it was going to be as bad as it was, until I started reading this thread. The media, while surely privy to the same information that you were, completely neglected to give out advanced warnings of the storm.

It was completely down to you that I was not only aware of what was about to hit us (in North Wales), but was able to warn my family. I was reading this thread, and phoning my Dad to tell him to tie down the trampoline. He, like me, was not aware of the impending storm. I warned him that the electric might go off, and to be prepared. Their electric did go off, and I'm sure they were glad of the warning. I called DP who was out on the road, and he had no idea what was coming either. I filled a flask and cooked dinner early (but didn't need to, as our elec was fine!)

I watched the weather outside, and before it got too bad I moved my car and secured the garden furniture. And while I was frightened by the wind, I knew when it was at its height, and I knew when to expect it to be over.

You are single handedly responsible for me and my family being prepared for what hit us yesterday, and for keeping us informed throughout.

Thank you OYBBK - keep up the good work!!

My old school has just been on Sky News because of the tree falling down in the grounds

Glad, I am really pleased I was able to help yesterday. Thank you for your lovely words :)

OYBBK can I ask a question please?

Whats the weather going to be like on sunday? I have todrive from kent to dorset to pick up my dsc, im really not not looking forward to driving it if its going to be stormy

Sunday looks pretty nice. A good day for travelling (apart from left over water/trees on the road!). Some showers moving in later in the day perhaps.

Thank you

Thats a relief its a bad enough journey as it is without adding a storm into the equation

You are welcome :)

So the latest GFS shows the worst of the wind in the south and especially the SE tomorrow night. Heavy rain (or snow in suspect areas) will cross the country affecting all at some point but especially giving concern over those areas flooded already.

The good news is that GFS is starting to follow ECMWF midweek taking a deep low to the north of the UK which frankly is where they belong. Although it doesn't look dry, it does look less stormy.

Hello OYBBK, I've just been advised to come and see you about a question I asked in chat...I can see why, you're doing an amazing job!

I'm due to be travelling from Manc to London and back by train tomorrow - early start and finish, should be leaving London 4pm at the latest.

Looking at your last post, it seems I might miss the worst of it. What do you reckon, should I risk it?

SE.
The forecast here is for it be raining and windy by 9am tomorrow, so out with little dog to get home before then as don't want a repeat of yesterday's afternoon walkies nightmare weather.

We had a nice relief today.

can I ask some advice? I'm meant to be on an 8am flight out of Heathrow Sautrday morning, and will have to get a bus from Oxford at about 5am early Saturday morning to get there. Is this going to to be viable? Am having visions of standing at a deserted busstop in gusting winds with no sign of a bus. I could travel to London on Fri night and stay over there, but I wonder if that would be worse, if storms hit then and trains stop running again.

My dd is supposed to be travelling tomorrow afternoon, along the south coast, by train. I'm trying to persuade her to wait until Saturday!

Sofa, apart from ongoing delays due to existing storm damage I think you will be fine weather wise. You are heading in the right direction in the afternoon. It will be very wet and blowy but should be ok for travel.

Oranges it will be very wet by then and I know some parts of oxford are struggling with flooding but I don't know the bus route well enough. Winds will be gusting up to about 60mph around then.

Normally I'd say go for it or get the train but the infrastructure is struggling. Can you stay at heathrow over night? I don't think you'd need to but it would be less stressful for you. There might be delays at heathrow, I'd bare that in mind.

Excuse, I'm not sure that's the best idea unless she can go fairly late Saturday. It will take a while for the winds to die down Saturday and they look lighter tomorrow afternoon than they do say sat lunchtime. Add to that the cumulative effects of potentially 24 hours of rain and it could be pretty disrupted.

Sunday looks nice :)

Thank you so much OYBBK, really appreciate your time.

You are really welcome sofa :)

We have had every kind of weather today, sun, rain, sleet, snow and hail. We are on a amber for tomorrow for rain followed by strong winds, getting slightly fed up as every weekend I arrange to go and look at a car to buy then a storm hits, I can't get there and they sell the car to someone else ( have missed out on 3 now ), any ideas on my chances getting to Bournemouth on sat to look at another one?

What has been the preventing factor Marne?

First chance to update, as our electricity went out at 4.30pm yesterday, and only came back on this evening.

The wind last night was terrifying. The drive home from work was so scary, with several fallen trees, debris flying around and hitting the car and gusts that were lifting/moving a heavy 4 x 4. My hands were trembling when we finally got home.
We had to drive home as my friend lives with and cares for an elderly parent who was at home alone. If I'd been on my own I would have just booked into a hotel near the office.
Anyway, we did get home safely albeit very scared. We got home around 5.15pm and the storm seemed to peak around 6pm.

Thoughts to those who are without power or flooded.

Thanks to kitten as ever, for your input, forecasts and advice.

Oh thank you OYBBK. She has to go back on Monday morning so coming on Sunday is out. We will just see what tomorrow brings and then get her to come if it doesn't look too bad.

I'm really glad you came out of it unscathed Herdy. It must have been truly terrifying.

Your welcome excuse. I think you are down to the mercies of public transport.

I am worried about Saturday now. I normally spend Saturdays at the stables which are quite isolated, and my drive is probably just a little bit north of the orange zone. Trees have come down on my route last Saturday and yesterday. There's also a stretch of road that is very exposed to winds.

Am I right in thinking that if the warnings stay as they are, I probably shouldn't go? Obviously I will try and assess the situation on Saturday morning.

Really want this bad weather to be over now.

Luckily I don't have to go anywhere tomorrow. Drove into Plymouth today and there was standing water in places, so tomorrow will be worse.

Thanks for all the information OYBBK and everyone else. Hope everyone stays safe.