So:
Today: - heavy rain, especially in the south but also NW scotland. Snow risk for northern and welsh hills is quite substantial and overnight tonight even lower levels in the midlands may see some. Strong winds - perhaps squally for a time. (so dont be surprised if the weather suddenly gets 'exciting' briefly.
Tomorrow: The storm now seems to take a more northerly track even than the met office predicted. If this remains the case the worst winds will be for Ireland, northern Wales and a swathe up through northern england and southern scotland. High mean speed winds with gusts of 70mph-80mph in those areas, 50-60 elsewhere. Please dont underestimate the effect of these winds. I will post later if the path moves back. Unfortunately it seems to make no difference to the expected rainfall and once again heavy rain will occur, affecting those who are flooded further.
Thursday: A quieter day, showers about but winds calmer.
Friday/Saturday: The storm is there. Not especially windy but another bringer of heavy rain over friday night. This storm just doesnt sit right with me, its coming from a slightly strange angle and I think we need to be prepared for surprises. Not a scientific feeling, just a bit of a gut one. Hopefully it will turn out to be nothing.
Longer term: well no big storms show which is good news, but the rain doesnt really vanish, just in general becomes less intense.
I will be back when I can today. Busy day I'm afraid.