Weather warnings part 2 - will they fade away, or is bad weather set to remain?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

new thread. other one full.

I don't think she's intentionally nasty, Hester.
Just getting very emotional under the strain.
As we all are.

Thanks for your threads, time and effort, Kitten.

I agree with Hester , you are not doing a bloody rain dance or just making things up .

You have always been more accurate than anywhere else and I know most people would rather know what to expect .

I am just looking at the floods in Berkshire and Surrey , shocking .

Yes, sorry It's not easy for anyone at the moment and a lot of people are worrying. However I think most people would rather know what's coming.

That's true, Hester.
You are not exactly haven game ball either.

Having a ball

I really hope this is over soon!

thankyou oybbk it is really helpful.

Sun is out here this morning, I went out after the school run with the dogs as forcast said 'dry day' it rained and we got very wet, several showers this morning but now seems ok, we shall see what tomorrow brings. At the moment the river near us is ok ( seems to have gone down after a couple dryish days ).

Absolutely pouring here again, was quite mild this morning and no rain was forecast for today at all..

updated warnings follow very much this mornings thoughts unfortunately.

However possibly some better news about Friday/Saturday.

The low pressure doesnt really develop in the latest round of the gfs operational model - a big change from the earlier gfs run. It does looks wet but maybe not stormy. I'm still keeping an eye on it as it was coming from a slightly unusual direction and I'm not convinced the models are handling it well. A number of the GFS ensembles show a damaging storm developing so the risk hasnt vanished.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the Seven is going to get out of my hair anytime soon.

Weather is nicer here today, but river levels on the EA website and the pictures of Worcester on the midland news do not suggest the road is going to reopen any time soon.

The good news is that the post 2007 flood defences seem to be holding and property damage is far less.

That is some good news nocomet :)

Bad news is a rash of new flooded roads being reported round Tewksbury.

The friday/Saturday storm I'm afraid is back on the 12Z run. Clearly the models are really struggling with this one so there is no point in attempting any detail, just noting that there is the possibility of it occurring.

SE.
Supposed to be dry here today and was sunny until around 1pm when we had a deluge for an hour and then the sun came out again. Loads of new deep puddles on the sagging asphalt pavements . Little furry dog not amused.

Bugger. I'm supposed to be moving house.

on Saturday hester?

Someone who is getting on with life? The weather is rather badly timed for you. At the moment I'd say friday is a better bet, but it might change and house moves never go to order.

Awful seeing that young chap on the news very upset that his first house was flooded. Really felt for him, poor sod.
oybbk do not feel bad for telling us all what is going on and where - I love you on the Wimbledon threads I love you on this one - good or bad weather, you are a name I always see and smile at. Unlike the fools on the news who have to dramatise every little bloody thing, you give it out straight and are right more than wrong (have you ever been wrong? Cause I can't recall it).
Keep on doing what you are doing.

I really do feel for all of you and everyone else either flooded or at risk of flooding.

Yes its hitting us but not as bad as some places on the mainland

I have been wrong :) I missed that squall that came through a few saturdays ago until it arrived in my garden. That was a bit exciting

Thank you though.

met office twitter feed has maps of the paths that wednesdays storm could take. well worth a look to understand the uncertainty even at this stage. Of course it could fall with in a range of those two paths!

Which track brings more rain to Thames Valley OYBBK? Please.

I've uhmmed and ahhed about that and I genuinely dont know nemno. I'd guess the more southerly track because I think it would keep you in the rain for longer.

The northerly track would be especially bad for Ireland wind wise.

I thought I was being thick because I couldn't decide myself. You've made me feel much better :D Thank you