BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

potential is still there I think on the 12Z GFS :) however it also shows a really really deep storm on Christmas eve and also a nasty one on the 27th again, so actually we probably shouldnt be wishing for it to come off.

met office press release

OYMLK thanks for the fab thread. We are supposed to be going ice skating at an open air rink tomorrow mid afternoon in Hertfordshire. I really don't want to skate for a number of reasons.... will it be rained off?

I think the last thing anyone needs is another storm. I particularly don't like the idea as our village looses power easily and we have an electric oven. dp had suggested the option of bbq turkey!

Everything crossed for snow!

Cheesed with daily gales! Monday looks like a belter.

It's going to be very wet in the morning and into the early afternoon qUeen.

Oooo a chance of snow on Christmas Day Just a little bit would be nice but not enough to disrupt people's plans.

Hmm, travelling north to south on 24th and back again on 27th...

ooh, possible chance of white Christmas! Tries to contain excitement. I have always wanted a white Christmas. Even a hard frost would be great.

Oh dear fuddle!

Just noticed it has got milder, after a sunny chilly day max 7. Now has risen to 9 and feels very mild

thank you!

There's an overuse of the word urged, in that Met Office press release. Wet and windy in Edinburgh and back to 10C.

Am as ever, excited at the prospect of snow, but am currently imagining a sideyways blizzard, rather than a sparkling winter wonderland

morning all. has to be a bit quick this am.

met office warnings

today: heavy rain across the south, and across northern scotland. Rain moving in everywhere by the end of the day with strong winds - gale force along the south coast.

Sunday: remaining very windy and some showers about, esp in the far south and Scotland. In scotland some may be snow.

Monday: horrible day. Note the met office warnings. GFS takes the low to a very deep 930hPa. Gusting to 70mph + in the south (esp south east) and also northern Scotland and gales elewhere. Continues into Christmas eve.

Christmas eve - starting off awful but slowly easing through the day.

Christmas day - mostly dry and cold, but maybe some snow showers. The south is I think too warm to snow but elsewhere showers, esp over higher gound might be snow.

Boxing day: winds easing, cold away from the south coast and not too bad a day.

27th: still keeping an eye on this one as at present it would be the most severe storm so far in terms of coverage v windspeed (though I have no idea about coastal flooding)

torro have issued a tornado watch for today. also hail, c-g lightning.

Tornados? In the UK??
I did not know that was possible

Thanks Kitten

Pacific - we get on average 33 a year :)

We have quite a few, Dingbat. I used to watch them coming up the Bristol Channel when I was little, though they'd usually dissipate before getting to land. Sometimes they can be quite destructive (usually in Birmingham for some reason)

Well, I never - thanks for educating me.
Do I have to be worried in Scotland?

We've just discovered that this morning's horizontal rain has entered my bedroom through the window frame... bastard!!

To summarise the two main events I'm watching:

Storm 1 - Monday/Christmas Eve.
Monday is worst for the south, esp the SE - gusts to 70mph+ Then that night into Christmas Eve the main risk transfers to scotland/NI/north of England. The low is forecast to be at 930hPa - which is very deep. Christmas eve could see winds of 90mph in NI and parts of Scotland. Can I urge you to please keep an eye on the met office warnings and be prepared for powercuts and horrid disruption. Build the storm into your plans.

Storm 2 - Friday27th/Saturday 28th.
Clearly this storm is sometime off and hopefully the models will back down but again you should be aware of it as GFS is showing it very consistently - unusual for the time frame. GFS shows it as a 940hPa storm and takes it right over the country - at this point in time it is impossible to say where the worst of it will be but at present I'm hazarding a guess at the west country followed by the east midlands. That will change.

Interestingly although the UKMO also develops the storm, ECMWF really doesnt seem that impressed with it this model run, though it was picking up on it very much so in previous runs. It may be the first to pick up a down grade, or it may be a dodgy run. Time will tell.

Pacific, you dont seem to get very many up there and not this time :) But you have enough to contend with I think.