Another severe storm 2nd/3rd November?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Quite possible I'm afraid.

Very early days in forecasting land but it has been showing in the models for a couple of days already.

GFS takes a deep low across northern scotland which would bring gales (severe??) to southern Scotland and northern England.

ECMWF and UKMO have it less deep but further south and not causing nearly so many issues.

NAVGEM brings possibly severe gales to England

GFS spotted last nights storm very early on and actually wasnt a bad forecast. We need to keep an eye on the situation.

Oh dear kitten, all sounds a bit ominous.

I suppose I should prep DD1 in case fireworks get cancelled...

Thank you for the updates Kitten. I've only just got my roof tiles put back on, so I do hope another lot don't blow off at the weekend. We're up high on the Downs on the outskirts of Brighton, so quite exposed!

We are meant to go to France on a day trip tomorrow - not back until midnight. I've amended it to the start of December. It's a less good time as it's a Sunday and not in half term and I'll have to struggle through work on the Monday after very little sleep.

However, I'm a complete wimp and I will be literally screaming on that boat if the sea is choppy. The shipping forecast shows a gale warning over the Dover part from Friday lunchtime onwards from what I can see and there's a weather warning out for Friday basically saying the same thing.

DD1 has been looking forward to it all term and is very upset with me but I just cannot do the 2.5 hour drive home from Dover straight after a choppy crossing. I hope I've done the right thing!

Placemark, and and for OYBBK while I'm here!

I just want to say I have bought a load of wood in for the winter. We plan to get another at the end of November too, in preparation for 'the big freeze'

I feel prepared now... although I have just heard there is a wine shortage so I might just have to buy loads of that too!

Thank you to mn for changing the thread title to reflect the change in forecast :)

musicposy - a really good call if you dont like rough seas!!

Tewi - not a bad idea. It doesnt look live a severe storm just really badly timed!

Pesto - a huge 'phew' that youve got your tiles back on. The weather this weekend would challenge any tarp!

Thank you Betty :)

Gecko - I've been able to make the most of Monday's fallen trees and have a lot of logs to chop up for next year. It's all I can do to stop myself going back to drag more home but dh is a bit - where are we going to keep it all. I'm going to have to start stashing it in secret places!

Brilliant work Kitten :)

Not much fallen wood round us so we couldnt do the same, I did get about half a loads worth from a woman who had had her tree cut down though which is great.

Still no exciting weather forecast for us, but looks like it's getting colder over the weekend for Scotland.

Thank you kitten, that's reassured me I've done the right thing. DD2 is over the moon as she's busy tomorrow but will be free on the December date and they've added her without charge. DD1 says it will be just as bad in December (she really wanted to go tomorrow) but I think this time of year is often the windiest?

You should be paid for this! You are truly brilliant, often more spot on than the official sources

DD1 and I are laughing at the thought of a layer of hidden logs in your wardrobe/ at the bottom of the washing bin/ behind the sofa

Thanks for the updates kitten. Sounds like all my potential bonfire displays are going to be a washout

Think I'll be more disappointed than DD!

thank you musicposy. dh will be grateful when we are all toasty warm!
I'm out and about at the moment but just saw that some of the official firework displays in my area are being postponed due to the expected high winds. if you are in the south then its worth checking in advance I think.
going to be loads of disappointed kids

perihelion, your turn may come next week. I'll do a model update when im at home and not stuck in a traffic jam

I fear I may never get home to look at the models. spent over an hour covering 10 miles.

:)

The good news is is that it looks like a normal autumn low still. Some strong winds, gale force along the south coast but nothing severe. The bad news is that it is still badly timed for any firework celebrations, so you still need to keep an eye on organisers web pages.

Will take a quick gander at the next low pressure.

In saying the above, I've just looked at the NAE and it does take gales through southern Scotland/northern eNgland on Saturday.
So it's not a complete stand down for Saturday by any means.

I love these weather threads. Never realised they existed before the storm.

Tuesday still looks like its worth keeping an eye on for Scotland. Some tight isobars.

:) afternoonnap. It's a good place to blather on about the weather amongst fellow enthusiasts.

We've decided to stay in this weekend, the kids are still young enough to let us get away with it :)

I'm playing it by ear, going to see how things look Saturday am.

Oh gosh my parents are sailing home (to ireland) from france on Sunday night. They may be in for a very bumpy ride!.

We have bought our own fireworks and live in the Midlands (not far from the city centre. About 4 miles away). We had planned to do them Saturday night, would you advise against? And when would you think is the best time to set them off?

I haven't had a look myself at the models the past few days as been really busy (hence why I am still up at stupid o'clock) but as I said before, don't have as much of an understanding of them as you anyway so would love your advice.

Straitjacket you must be exhausted! If I lived in the midlands I'd be hanging on til Sunday evening. At the moment it looks a lot calmer and drier. Tonight will be wet and tomorrow showery but looks like it gusting up to around 40 or 50mph

OYBBK I love a bit of tight isobar action