Another severe storm 2nd/3rd November?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Quite possible I'm afraid.

Very early days in forecasting land but it has been showing in the models for a couple of days already.

GFS takes a deep low across northern scotland which would bring gales (severe??) to southern Scotland and northern England.

ECMWF and UKMO have it less deep but further south and not causing nearly so many issues.

NAVGEM brings possibly severe gales to England

GFS spotted last nights storm very early on and actually wasnt a bad forecast. We need to keep an eye on the situation.

And does the fact that the jet stream (or which ever stream it is) has switched direction recently have any impact on the winter? Quite a lot of rumblings about winter being colder than last year.

I'm not sure I know of anything that switches every 14 months jet stream always goes in the same direction except it waggles north and south, but yes - the jet stream seems to have woken up.

d&p. I've not seen that potential, looks benign to me. I wonder if I'm missing something.

should be ok captainmummy - it might be a bit blowy, but the storm will have merged with another low pressure well north of you. Have a nice flight :)

marking my place.

I'm hoping it will be calm

Been finding this all very interesting. Been looking at the charts myself for next Sunday (although I am no where near as clued up as you OP and barely understand them much) but will be keeping an eye out on them, and here, as I have family up North.

Thankfully last nights storm missed us (Midlands) and we just got away with some winds and rain. Nothing bad at all.

Really in awe of you OP, I wish I could understand them like you do. Keep up the good work (but remember to have breaks for and more importantly and )

I was only half paying attention assumed it was Sunday one then I saw Friday at the bottom of the graphic!

Ah, this was bound to happen. Last night's storm was pretty bad here (one of the fatalities was down the road), and this weekend, we're off the Blackpool and the Lakes..

Marking my place.

When is the snow coming, thats what I want to know. Need to be prepared for the 'big freeze'

Lets have autumn first :)

That is the right answer!

I dont want snow (yet) but I want to make sure that I am not left out in the cold and we have stocked up on wood and food. Its impossible to get our car out of the lane in the snow.

OYBBK can you promise to start a snow thread when its going to hit?

You dedication knows no ends OYBBK

Gecko that certainly is the plan :)

Youarewinning, no weather for ages then it all comes at once!

That's true - then it'll be the big freeze and then the snow and then everyone will want to know what the weather will be like Christmas day, a few days either side for travel, over new year and then back to freeze and snow.

So cancel any plans you had before next April

If only I could get paid for it!

Michael Fish did and he was wrong

You've probably saved people thousands with your advice - so you ought to be paid.

Do you need qualifications to do this as a career? I reckon you'd be great.

"and now lets pass over to bad kitten on the banks of the Thames to let us know what's happening with our weather today" See? Would have a fab ring to it on Daybreak

Oh, I read in yesterdays Sunday Times that it switches direction every 14 months... just checked it again and it definitely said jet stream. Can't link to it because it's behind the paywall. I guess they've used some duff science there.

For those fascinated by the jetstream - some 'bedtime' reading:

www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=1967

Thanks butterflymum! Looks like a good article (have bookmarked to read properly later)

Oh no! We're meant to be travelling from London to Durham by train that day...

Headfairy, did it say it switched from west to east to almost north to south? That's the nearest I can find. It's true that it has been meandering north and south a lot for rather a long time but it still moves from west to east while it does so. There's no obvious 14 month switch either, it would be so much easier to forecast if it did. It has zoomed up in speed recently. Hence these vigorous storms that are starting to form.

Geckos - this time last year we did actually have snow settle overnight. It was on the night of the 27th. We were meeting my parents in York and had to clear the car first!

Gah!!! It's DD1's 3rd birthday party on Sunday...20+ of us going to Chester Zoo for the day.

Kitten you do are fabulous, I spent hours the last few days lurking on weather forums, it was so very exciting but at the same time confusing (I still don't understand what RACY is).

It snowed this time 5 years ago too! It was DS's birthday today and it snowed when we brought him home from hospital [ smile]