Another severe storm 2nd/3rd November?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Quite possible I'm afraid.

Very early days in forecasting land but it has been showing in the models for a couple of days already.

GFS takes a deep low across northern scotland which would bring gales (severe??) to southern Scotland and northern England.

ECMWF and UKMO have it less deep but further south and not causing nearly so many issues.

NAVGEM brings possibly severe gales to England

GFS spotted last nights storm very early on and actually wasnt a bad forecast. We need to keep an eye on the situation.

I'll be honest, given we're getting married on Saturday I could do without the weather hitting the Midlands too badly before then!

I can cope with rain, as long as it's not so windy to blow my umbrellas inside out!

Morning :) had a lie in woohoo! Will get dressed pronto, do a few jobs and look at the models. Back soon.

Carol Kirkwood mentioned the weekend weather this morning as being a bit windy and wet but not out of the ordinary.

Had a quick look at the BBC weather and I'm a bit worried now. I'm supposed to be staying in a youth hostel in the Lakes on Friday night. Saturday morning is showing that bright yellow/green all across the lakes.

bit early for Carol to be calling that manky, but looking at todays models she's right that at the moment it looks like a normal Autumn low.

GFS - brings strong winds to the north of england but nothing on the scale of yesterday.

ECMWF - strong winds to the midlands

UKMO - brings the strong winds into the channel instead.

The big difference is, is that they all show it as a mature low, so no last minute nasty surprises. Fair bit of rain around though. Flooding could well become an issue.

The Daily Express 'weather experts' say this about the weekend's weather. They're also forecasting a Siberian winter ahead and record breaking snow for November.

I believe every word of it!

RACY means rapid deepening - more than 12mb in 24 hours. (stands for rapid cyclogenesis). It means the pressure gradient is rapidly changing, hence the rapid increase in wind speeds as it deepens.

I believe that they actually put peoples lives in danger Gloria. It means that when the met office put out genuine warnings people ignore them.

I know.

Did you hear PM on Radio 4 last night? They were talking about forecasting storms and how things have changed since the 1987 one. Might be on i-player/listen again if you want to listen ~ was just before the weather at 5.55pm.

oops. Can I point out I only have one head

I did catch that, it was really interesting. It was still a bit of a struggle for forecasters but in the past this storm wouldnt have been spotted until much later in the process.

"I reckon that in the last 26 years I lived in the Outer Hebrides for 10 years and we had force 10/11/12 storms every winter.Even in the 8 years I've lived in Glasgow we've had force 8-10 every year and 11 2 years ago.

I'm sure you're great about it, but the media really doesn't pay as much attention to storms that don't affect the SE of England!"

Isnt it rather the case that the media is not whipping up a storm about hurricanes affecting a place on a regular basis?

In the north of Norway where I am from, there is "storm season" throughout January and February. It is hardly ever mentioned, people just check the weather forecast and act accordingly. All trampolines, garden furniture, ornaments are taken in for winter as a matter of course. There is nothing laying around outside over winter. Aside from snow shovels next to every front door, and bins. These get secured for storms. People just shrugh and say "We know where we live, why would the weather surprise us?"

I reckon it is the same in Scotland? It is not newsworthy when it happens so regularly. This storm, was predicted to be the biggest in 26 years, surely you can see that this would be on the news? People are not used to such severe weather, and dont know how to act, or move things indoors, unless they are told specifically. It needs to be in the news to inform people what to do, what precautions to take, as otherwise they would just carry on as normal.

Having more or less been missed by the first store I noticed there are a lot of council workers out trimming trees this morning. I assume they are clearing the now weakened branches etc in case this second storm is bad/hits us.

06Z gfs gives northern scotland a pretty good storm, with much of the uk having gales.

butterflymum - thanks for that link. That's an excellent explanation of the jet stream, certainly one of the best I've seen.

OYBBK - slightly off topic, but does this new storm that's being forecast mean that bonfires and firework displays on 2nd and 5th Nov are likely to be a washout?

Marking place in case something nasty is heading our way!

There is a risk of that 20thCgirl. I can look at that specifically if you like, not just at the moment, but a bit later.

Oh boo. I've been really looking forward to fireworks too.

I'd much appreciated if you do get the chance to have a look at some point. I'm in the north west, I'd imagine there's a high chance of rain!

The long term forecast for here (south Wiltshire) says that there is no snow due for the whole of November, which seems totally in contrast to what I am hearing about elsewhere.

I am just going to go along with whatever you say! But please give me warning because I need to get wood in!

GFS has the entire UK being washed out on .saturday night :( at the moment the 5th looks a little more showery but impossible to tell at this range and could very easily turn to wet depending on where fronts end up.

Silly weather.

Has been a chilly night here (Leicester) ~ temperature is currently 0.6C Brrrr!

Charts are still all over the place for Sunday. Impossible to forecast for me as they range from generally wet and Windy to more severe gales, any where across the UK. I think the general consensus is for wet and windy, but its important to realise the potential is there for something nastier.

Best thing to do is keep an eye on the warnings page on the met office site.

Sorry, I posted the last update in the wrong thread

Last couple of gFS runs have had the low pressure run across England in a very similar position to the last one but bringing it in earlier than I first suggested - on Saturday evening. It's not as deep and there isn't a potential for a sting jet that I can see but given:

A) there are lots of weakened trees from the last storm
B) there are loads of firework parties

It's probably worth paying attention to.

Will just check the weather warnings...

Warnings are out for heavy rain along the south coast for the little depression that zips up along the channel tomorrow night into Saturday morning for southern coastal counties. Gusts maybe to 50mph along the coastal areas.

Saturday nights low I think may see gusts up to 60mph with inland gusts of 40-50mph. Not too dissimilar to tomorrow nights low but the impact is more widespread and the timing rubbish for parties.

Also keeping my eye on Bonfire night. Another potential nasty, at the moment looks to most likely affect northern Scotland. Will update with more info on that as the models settle down.