Possible severe gales on Monday 28th.

[OhYouWickedWickedWitch]

I'm keeping a pretty close eye on developments for Monday. some of the models (in particular gfs) are showing a deep low developing over England, with the majority of the gfs runs taking the worst of the wind over the south.

Massive if. But if the weather were to pan out as those models are suggesting it would be a damaging storm, especially given the trees still being in leaf. I'd keep an eye on the met office early warnings page and if they start warning about it then it would be a good weekend to tidy the garden before you lose your stuff

I'll update as things become clearer.

18Z GFS looks nothing like the previous model runs or like any other of the models. how bizarre! Struggling to interpret it. That's why we still need human forecasters - sometimes computer models do really weird things. It doesnt develop the storm as a discrete entity, timings are different etc.

Unless other models come on board in the morning I'm going to treat it with the same regard as I had for the NAE this morning.

I'm right on the Devon/Cornwall border (very near the Tamar bridge) and it's very calm here now. I'm meant to be driving to mid-Devon (near Crediton) tomorrow for Sunday lunch. Foolish?

Oh OH Sorrel are you in Saltash?? I'm there at Christmas :D

MIL has decided to drive to Brighton on Monday She's not the world's most confident/capable driver at the best of times! And she's meant to be driving to the Marina, that's going to be particularly gusty!! Trying to persuade her not to, or to get a train + taxi instead.

Is it weird that my first thought on reading that Sorrel was in Saltash was "I wonder where she buys her bras?" :o :o

There is all sorts of scepticism about this forthcoming weather event on the message boards of the Mail. Comments are usually along the lines of "What hurricane? I'm in TheArseEndOfNowhere and there's NO WIND AT ALL. Huh! The Met Office are useless." And so on.

Yes, Guernsey just the same with everything stopping, JerseySpud. My dad tried to go to the doctors when the snow was around and couldn't get further than the end of his road. So he stupidly pressed on and ended up having to leave the car in the beach car park and walk back. Great idea when you are over 70. I might just ring them now and issue instructions not to go ANYWHERE. They are on the coast so in theory shouldn't have trees to worry about. Apart from the fact that the only real forest on the island is just behind their house....

Waves at Hester as 1/3 of the Truro meet and almost neighbour without realising of UnexpectedItem...

It's bloody windy in my back garden in London, btw. Not nice at all.

Waves to all the Bournemouth people. Wind just completely dropped here too. Am running outside to gather in the basketball hoop which is currently making its own way round the garden.

Oywww, what does that mean about this model run? Is it still looking really bad? Moved to Devon 2 months ago and had a look At Met monkey tonight and we look like we are right in the bad bit ( mid Devon near Somerset border )

Nooo don't go out. I've made sure i have all the staples in wine, fags, chocolate....oh and food for the kids just in case. Our estate gets blocked off easily by twats and the hill is dangerous at the best of times so we're just not going anywhere.

Just have to dismantle play house and move bin tomorrow

starfish - it doesnt even produce a storm -just an open wave. I've asked dh to come and look at it so we can together.

Both of us have backgrounds of computer modelling. Sometimes models do really odd things - generally down to the quality of data input. This run is called the pub run (cos of its timings) and it really does look like its been down the pub.

If the other models follow suite in the morning then we can call it the genius model and all breathe a sigh of relief. I'm not holding my breath!

Is the Village Urban in Bournemouth overlooking the sea? I am anyway glad I am not there now. I can hear "items" flying outside in London.

My bin is secure.

But what does that mean? Have they cancelled the storm? (in laymans terms?)

They've just upped ours to a F9 within the next 0-6 hours O.o

quints - at the moment I think it means that one model has lost the plot. In the morning when more have updated I'll be able to tell you whether it really was the first indication that theres no storm or whether it was basically a junk run and the storm is till on.

Just snorted Pepsi at cancelled the storm

"Not tomorrow thanks, we're not in the mood!"

^quint* I think you made the right decision not to go to Bournemouth (hopes it was you!) as even if this big storm comes to nothing it's not really sightseeing weather atm

Hi Roly, how are you? Have you secured the trampoline as instructed?

Though it may well come to naught anyway. Here is your forecast! Not too bad is it?

It is pretty similar to the mornings NAE run though.
Fascinating!

Watching the various weather boards implode as they get their heads around it.

watch this space in the morning!

Hi Quints - no the Village Urban is well inland here. Opposite Bournemouth Hospital on the road out of town.

DH is now calling you MumsNetWeatherLady, OYWWW. He's quite interested in this latest turn of events.

Good thanks Hester.

Still have to flip the trampoline but planning on doing that in the morning when we take the tarp off the chicken run!

But it doesn't look so bad for us now - not fancying dh's drive to Reading tomorrow night much though!

I'm due to get a bus from Oxford to London, Monday morning at 4am, do you think this would be ok or should I book a hotel and head down tomorrow.