Snow Watch Part 4. The Winter continues....

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

met office warnings For tomorrow for Scotland and NW England, extending to Yorkshire. NW Scotlant in particular looks awful with blizzard conditions.

I'm not quite sure about the warnings for England, I'm going to be really interested to see how they pan out. Tuesday scattered sleet and snow showers for many.

[digerd]

S.Herts
Back in one piece. It is actually sleeting now, more rain than snow.
Another cuppa for me.

[Skang]

The snow is still heavy here in Essex but its melting as it comes and isn't very deep. I'm quite disappointed :(

[digerd]

It is the wrong type of snow - too wet as too mild out +1 here.
Snow on driveway is almost gone now, but if freezes hard overnight, will be treacherous tomorrow.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Lileth, am having a quick spot of lunch and then I've got to go leafleting for a couple of hours (yes, really!) later I'm going to do a really intense look at what the week and into Easter may have in store for us.

[TwllBach]

It's still very cold but no rain OR snow!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

For those interested in our gas supply situation have found where the some of the new info is stored (the old gas balancing alerts have gone)

daily margins report

It's ermmm, kind of fairly important that spring arrives sooner rather than later as far as I can see. The last graph is our storage capacity, which is now less than 36 hours. Can't yet find the easy to read data on flow throughr the interconnecters (which tells you how much we are importing/exporting) but I think I've got a bookmarked link on my pc.

Anyway, lunch break practically over, back later :)

[pepperrabbit]

We were supposed to have heavy rain. We had snow ALL morning, garden white and slushy but the roads are clear now and it seems to have stopped.
We have a lot of guests tomorrow for my MILs birthday, really really hope that everyone can make it!
Cross with snow now

[LillethTheCat]

Thank you OYBBK. In all honesty it can do what the feck it likes from Tues lunch onwards as far as Im concerned, but would like it to get warmer so I dont use so much bloody oil.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Ok.

Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Have started a new general forecast thread here

[TwllBach]

There were definite flakes of snow when I stepped out to the car just now! It's half way up the Island too so I'm sure we will get it soon.

Do you work in "The Weather" OYBBK or is it just something you find interesting?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

something I find interesting :) I'd love to be a professional meteorologist. I've been to some lectures and ive done some courses (mostly very short, but the OU short course was a good intro)

[Perihelion]

No snow or rain in Edinburgh, just cold bitter wind. OYBBK interesting and worrying about the gas, especially as at least two coal fired power stations have been shut down in the last week or so. The one in Scotland, so it can eventually be converted to gas. And Sellafield going offline because of snow related travel difficulties for the workers......Looks like future winters could be really tricky.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It does perihelion, we may squeak by though this one, but if we do, it will have been close.

[PestoFrostissimos]

We've had some snow overnight, but not enough to worry about or ski on

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It seems to be snowing little teeny shards of ice at the moment. I don't know what phenomenal would cause that and google is not being helpful.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Ahh!!! Fantastic guide to snowflakes here

[leesmum]

Kitten that snowflake guide is brill, the Ds's are very impressed :)

[digerd]

In Germany we had powder type snow, but was always -10-20. After sweeping the snow away, the ground was bone dry underneath.
I also noticed the snow flakes were tiny compared to SE England larger ones at -3 to 0.

Today, the snow was better ,not wet, and stayed at -1. Walking over a curved wooden bridge the snow was nice and firm. Snow on Tarmac has melted though, but not on grass. Little dog loved it this morning , so must be good snow.

[mummylin2495]

Oh my god it is actually snowing here in Bournemouth!