Here's some VERY SPECIFIC flying weather Don't worry about what most of it means, (unless you have a thing about aviation forecasts!) These forecasts are THE LAW, and are more accurate than any other weather forecasts I have ever come across. As I fly for a living, this is a good thing, I like to know exactly what to expect when I get there. The forecasts don't go any further than about 24-36hrs as they can't predict quite so accurately beyond then, and we really need to be accurate (can't stress this enough!)
First up, Heathrow. You'll notice it doesn't give a temperature. We don't need to know that kind of thing specifically, only whether its a bit chilly or a bit toasty, and we get the current temperature in the actual weather statement. The bit we're interested in the the bit I've put in bold:
FT 031100 031104Z 0312/0418 34004KT 9999 SCT040 PROB30
0400/0412 5000 HZ PROB30 TEMPO 0410/0417 BKN012
BECMG 0412/0415 18010KT TEMPO 0417/0418 5000 -SN
BKN010 -
So what this is saying is that between 1700hrs and 1800hrs on the 4th Feb the visibility will be 5000m (5kms) in light snow with the clouds covering about half the sky at 1000ft height. I interpret this as meaning there'll be a bit of a flurry, but it's not going to stop me landing the plane. It is enough reduced visibility though that Heathrow Air Traffic Control will probably reduce the landing rate of aircraft and we all sit in the holding pattern for a while waiting for our turn to land. The wind is from the south, which is interesting, because generally with colder weather that brings sustained snow is more northerly. I'd be interested to see the synoptic charts and see where the lows and highs are over Europe, but I'm not going to get that much info till I turn up at the aircraft tonight. I'm due to land well before this time, so it's not going to worry me.
What happens on Sunday is what's worrying me - not from a professional point of view but because I am going on holiday, and I put the kiss of death on the weather every time I go on holiday! I fly every working day, and never come across airports shut due to snow. Europe, Canada, North America - never a problem. And then once ever 2 years I decide to venture out on a flight I have no control over, and bam! Snoclo.
Anyway, Gatwick for the next 36 hrs has this:
FT 031100 031104Z 0312/0418 35005KT 9999 SCT030 PROB40
0403/0411 6000 PROB30 TEMPO 0406/0412 BKN010
BECMG 0412/0415 17010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0416/0418
6000 -SN -
This is slightly different to what Heathrow is saying. The key bit is PROB30 - this means there is only a 30% chance of it happening. We'd disregard that for planning purposes.
Hopefully I'll come back at about midnight to give you an update. I'll just be starting work then, and I'm watching Gatwick like a hawk. It better hadn't cost me the first 2 days of my holiday like it did last time!