Battle of the cold and the mild

[OhyouBadBadkitten]

Which will win at the end of next week?
(very brief this morning - running behind a bit)
Cold weekend for all before it warms up again for a couple of days.
GFS then has mild winning.
ECMWF has cold winning (and boy does it look impressive on the charts)
UKMO doesnt quite stretch that far but I think that it is closer to ECMWF and is a bit of a blend solution.

back later :)

Snow in Renfrewshire - according to DM. Not sure of it will come to much though.

OYBBK, I see from your other thread that you're back home now. Hope you're catching up on Zzzzzzzz and have a good nights sleep.

Just a reminder folks about the weather warnings for tonight and tomorrow.

morning all :)
Thanks Gloria for keeping updating :) Going to attempt to work out whats happening with the weather but my brain is like mushy peas....

So the battle continues but for this weekend gfs ended up being closer to the truth than ecmwf. Interesting. Also interesting is that by next weekend the jet stream to me looks really meandering which suggests it is weakening and perhpas the atlantic will become less dominant in our weather. Back later, friend just texted that shes coming round :)

Hope you're feeling better and had a good nights sleep, OYBBK.

This can't be right (and I know I shouldn't be getting excited about this!) but netweather are giving us a 70 and 78% chance of snow for Wednesday and Thursday next week. They're also getting over-excited quite excited on met-monkey about the latest model runs. Could it be possible our winter is about to happen?

Snow forecast on netweather has gone!

Oh well, I'll just have to satisfy my snow cravings with webcams of Iceland, where they seem to be having a snowy day

:)
Dont lose hope yet, next weekend this begin to look interesting and we havent run out of winter yet.

Had 12 hours sleep last night, but I think I'm going to need a few days before I feel like myself. Standing up for any length of time is challenging. Very nice not to have a heart going at a billion miles an hour though.

clearly my powers to type in English have somewhat deserted me.

OYBBK, hope you're feeling better

I'm watching this thread in the hope of some new development! I've never known the MetOffice to be so ambivalent for so long - their longer-range forecasts have suggested two equally likely scenarios for several days now.

When will the uncertainty end?

Feeling better than yesterday - but a long way from being right yet.

Probably March 1st!!!

We are still on a knife edge of it going either way. Jet stream is very meandering. Wouldnt like to call it at all!

Glad you're feeling a little better, OYBBK (and apologies; I'm not being a very good 'deputy' atm ~ DD2's birthday yesterday and had friends/family over today!) Just noticed the metoffice have a warning out for rain, for some western bits of England, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Dont worry! I reckon people can manage for a bit :) happy birthday to your dd.

I'm struggling to see any where any real prolonged cold would come from, Europe looks quite warm to me Some surface cold yes, but not a big giant deep freeze
In saying that early Feb does look quite interesting on gfs (with a possible snow maker scenario) but that is some way in advance and the models are all over the place.

Thank you for your birthday wishes for DD2. Funnily enough the weather on Friday, was exactly the same (very wet) as it was the day she was born 9 years ago!

As for 2012 weather (and this is in my probably very amateur opinion!) that I know we're still in what is classed as winter, but I'm finding the sun's beginning to have some warmth to it now, so the chance of having 'proper' heavy snow is beginning to diminish and adds to the feeling that we're not going to have a cold spell. I know in previous years, we have had snow in February but I think judging by the winter we've just had, it's almost like the weather has got itself into a rut and it just doesn't feel like winter is about to hit us, as it has done in the Februarys of previous years.

In December 2010 and looking back on the models (so say the met-monkey lot!), you could see the cold forming over wherever it came from (think it was the east?) but this year, it seems to be more 'well the models are giving this chunk of cold and then it disappears' scenario and we're getting more weather systems from the west. After the last 2 winters, we were probably hoping that we were going to have a run of cold ones but this winter, we've really had just a 'normal British winter' with a lot less cold and frost than usual.

(Then again, we could be under feet of snowy stuff by the time February comes and if it's found I'm talking complete rubbish, please ignore all of the above! )

I think I pretty much agree with you. I think there is the potential for snow in early feb and it could be quite heavy when it happens but my feeling it would be a short lived affair.

Once again the models are split. GFS=mild. ECMWF=cold.

Any ideas of the weekend forcast some people say we may get snow [bshock]

I think it will be too dry for snow for most. Annoyingly wetterzentrale is down which means I'm having to look at other sites for charts.

It does look like a colder interlude next week I think. Mix of rain and perhaps snow for higher ground in northern uk as we get there.

They're giving us a 68% chance of snow for next Wednesday, on newtweather. That will of course, have turned to a forecast of rain by the time we get to next week!

And that should be netweather (unless we're doing forecasts for our amphibian friends!)

:) at newt weather!

Does look interesting Sunday/Monday now actually. Bit marginal but I think there will be snow around in places.

Interesting to see the snow thread today in some places that I wasnt really expecting it.

Snow at my mums on the banks of the river Clyde - a lot of it and still falling as of 17.30 this evening.

at 'newtweather' too

meteo says sleet for Monday in London. We haven't had any cold weather warnings at work (rough sleepers) yet though.