Battle of the cold and the mild

[OhyouBadBadkitten]

Which will win at the end of next week?
(very brief this morning - running behind a bit)
Cold weekend for all before it warms up again for a couple of days.
GFS then has mild winning.
ECMWF has cold winning (and boy does it look impressive on the charts)
UKMO doesnt quite stretch that far but I think that it is closer to ECMWF and is a bit of a blend solution.

back later :)

Looks like a right mixed bag still. Some snow for northern areas today. Looking with interest at Sunday when a warm front looks to try and move across, encroaching on the cold air. Warm fronts bring rain. As they are less dense than the cold air the warm front will lift above it and the rain will fall through cold air. Snow possibly.
Next week? Goodness knows but one to keep an eye on for sure.

Cold here, hail this morning but dry since about 8ish.

The sky looks very snowy in the west though.

Weather warnings have been issued for slippery surfaces and snow for today and tomorrow.

well spotte Gloria :)
beautiful clear blue skies down here.

We've got lovely blue skies as well but 'tis chilly!
On the lunchtime weather forecast, it sounds like it's going to be a real battle on Sunday between that warm front and the cold. Looks like it'll be a case of 'stay glued to the TV/radio' to see what we're going to have.

Actually, scrap what I've just said, it's beginning to cloud over ~ think we might be in for some rain/wintry showers in a bit!
(How are you OYBBK? Are you still on the road to recovery?)

Struggling a bit Gloria, I attempted to go back into work but felt ridiculously poorly, so I'm off today. If I'm not feeling much better by Monday its off to the doctor again.

Tis beginning to cloud over here. Will probably stay dry though and looks pretty much dry across the uk tomorrow, Sunday could be rather interesting for people :)

We had a brief rain (started as sleet) shower on the school run this afternoon, which helped make a beautiful double rainbow as DD1 and I sat outside DDs primary school.

I see that there's a weather warning for Monday for some western bits/Wales. It'll be interesting whether that'll get extended eastwards over the next day or two. I'm also lol'ing at this on Netweather (got the name right this time!) The merest hint of cold and all of a sudden it's snowmageddon!

(Poor you, OYBBK. Can I send some more along with some 'feel better soon' vibes your way?)

netweather are really funny at times, they are very enthusiastic
Am very glad you are keeping an eye on things :)
thank you for the flowers and good thoughts.

Does look like cold wins for a while. A real mix though of snow and rain. Western areas first as highlighted in the met office warnings, but I think the risk transfers east as we go through the week :)

Does look like a rather cold week, particularly for the east as we go through the week. The weakened jet stream is finally letting in some winter. Too early to talk snow specifics, but snow showers at least are pretty likely I'd have thought. However as is the nature of showers, some will get some and some won't. Could be interesting :)

(Just trying to help, OYBBK )

Oooh colder for the east

Is that because the cold stays over us and the longer it stays there, it makes it more difficult for any weather front from the west, to give us rain/milder weather? (trying to learn the ways of the weather here!) And anything that does come from the west, just hits the cold and ends up as snow?

So possibly some proper winter a last! They're getting rather excited on met-monkey about this chart for next Saturday! (Another very enthusiastic bunch although realise that a week is a long time in weather land!)

More excitement about the cold weather/snow from netweather!

(and totally OT, for Mount Etna fans, it looks like it might be on its way to an eruption again.)

Tis more that to our NE a high pressure is building over Europe with some pretty cold air entrenched. If you look at that chart you linked to :) you can see what I mean. Air rotates clockwise around a high pressure and so we are getting the flow directly from the cold continent. As it flows over the north sea any instability in the flow will show in the form of showers (and I have to say that chart does look rather nice. (I need to get well )) Impossible to say exactly where atm but as an amateurish guess I think it would be quite a good set up for shower feeds from the Thames and the Wash and eastern coastal areas in general.

Good old Etna :)

I'm a quiet lurker on this topic but absolutely love it. Kitten, don't feel obliged to interpret the weather models if you are poorly. Get yourself better!

Thanks Jalopy, I'm still enjoying doing it :) , just cant keep up my usual pace at the moment. It will be really good when I'm back up to speed.

looks like ukmo model and gfs are still arguing at the moment so even precip amounts and type are questionable for tomorrow/monday. However the western side of the uk could see significant snow. watch this space (or out of the window!) further on into the week again no model agreement but gfs shows a real cold blast for the eastern side still with the possibility of snow as I talked about above.

met office warnings been updated to reflect the risk for tomorrow/monday.

(Sorry I disappeared ~ I had a date with Aladdin at the local Panto!)

Thank you for your explanation ~ I tend to forget these pressure systems aren't just blobs of warm/cold air that sit doing nothing; they move in a certain direction and can be affected by the weather they 'pick up' as they move over the land/sea.

Met-monkey posters are saying a similar thing to what you said earlier; that the weather charts are almost a sideline now and the weather's doing whatever's outside your window! They're still having major excitement over each run that shows possible snowy weather!

GFS is an absolute corker this morning it shows getting colder and colder through the week and then at the start of next week (Tuesday 7th) it shows a cold deep low crossing the country - guess what that would bring..... blizzards across much of the UK! Before we all hop up and down in excitement/panic (delete as you wish) remember that is 9 days away and one model. A long long time in forecasting land.

Back to today and tomorrow. As wet mild air bumps into the colder air snow is very very likely for western parts. Where exactly is always a bit of a guessing game - it depends how far the the precipitation makes it across the country and how heavy the precipitation is.

Best thing to do is to keep an eye on the met office warnings but be aware further east that there is the possibility of the warnings being extended this way a little. I would certainly think twice before using the A30 tomorrow as well as travel in that general area and through Wales/Gloucestershire/Shropshire and perhaps the Cotswolds.

little bump

Thanks OYBBK.

Please give us good news re half term (13th-17th here!) as my friend and I who work in schools are hoping for no snow that week!

Where are you OYBBK. You said central south England and wondered if you are near me? (Portsmouth area)

roughly in that regionish but less coastal :) Dont want to give location away too much. Fraid I'm not going to attempt half term - it would be random guessing!

Very cold here this morning, but grey and damp now.

How are you feeling today OYBBK?

I've not actually tried anything to see Manky am not too bad at all if I sit nice and quietly, so am sat in my pjs trying to see how quickly I can place counties on a map. Have put a link on a weather section thread (I think that might be pushing my hr up a bit . ) Thank you for asking.

2C and overcast here. It looks very Januaryish out there.