Potential gales Monday

[OhYouBadBadGhostie]

Been too busy to look at weather stuff in any detail at all this week

Obviously details are low at the moment but Monday does look quite interesting as a low moves through. Strong gusty winds, which many of us have not seen for a good while. met office are showing gusts over 40mph right across the uk, 50-60mph in places Keep an eye on this in case the low deepens more than they expect.

hmm, well, it is starting to look much more interesting. If it comes off then there will be widespread disruption. Very heavy rain in some places, gales or perhaps severe gales. As to where exactly - the devil is in the detail as always but could well hit much of the UK Keep an eye on the met office advisories and here of course.

click on gfs on the left side then '90' underneath all of the German weather terms for a look at this beauty.

(if you look at this later then click on a smaller number, you want to end up looking at the 00z map for Monday)

Gosh didn't know Mn had a weather section I love a bit of weather chat Will keep my eyes peeled

I do love your weather updates OhYouBadBadKitten, please do keep doing them

Excellent :) It tends to wax and wane depending on the time of year as you can imagine Noddyholder

I have a bit of time this afternoon to drool over the models.

thank you Seth. Its lovely of you to say. :) I think any free time I have this weekend will be spent looking at this!

I don't understand any of that OYBBK!

WHat am i looking for?

Will it be as snowy this year as last. love snow

Not thick at all Dance, I forget not everyone has the same model watching obsession. Did you end up with a chart when you tried my instructions?

The T is german for 'low'. On the left hand side of the uk you can see how the T is surrounded by lots of circles close together. Those are the isobars - the different air pressures. They are rather like the contours on a map - the closer together they are, the steeper the pressure gradient.

Because the pressure in a low is at the lowest in the centre you can think of it almost like a valley of air. The air on the outside (the high pressure air) flows into the centre to fill the valley. Because of the earth's rotation it doesn't fill straight in from outside to inside, instead like a bath plug, it swirls around and in our case it goes anticlockwise around the low.

So by looking at that, at the time I showed you the western half of the uk would have the strongest winds (where the isobars are closest) and the wind would be coming from a southerly direction.

its not quite as simple as that, within lows you get fronts and interactions which mean that you can get even higher wind speeds in some places but its a good general principle when looking at a map.

noddyholder. Obviously can't say for certain, but I think that we are going to end up in a very similar weather pattern.
certainly cold after this weekend, maybe a bit of sleet at the back end of this low?

I did yes and very pretty it was too

lots of isobars close togethr = low pressure? lowpressure with high pressure behind it = windy?

I am learning v e r y slowly.
In fact i am pondering an OU course in weather if i can get the finance - may have to wait until next year as also want to a diff one lol!

Ho do you know, from that map, which way the wind is blowing?

lots of isobars close togethr = low pressure : yes :)

lowpressure with high pressure behind it = windy? : not really, it is only the tightness of the isobars in the low itself that signifies how windy it will be. (think of how steep the valley is - a ball rolling down it is affected only by the valley and not by the hills around it)

The low pressure is on the left of the uk and the wind goes anticlockwise around the low roughly (but not quite because the air is also moving towards the centre a bit) in the same direction of the isobars, You can see the isobars are running from south to north of the uk and so you can say that is roughly the direction of the wind. As the low sinks further south then we will be at the top of the low pressure and winds will come from an easterlyish direction.

Does that make a bit of sense?

yes it does actually

Gah, i need to find something less taxing as an interest lol!

not at all! a taxing interest is good brain exercise :) (I have still so much to learn too - I'm strongly considering a course next october)

Monday does look very interesting still - very wet, very cold and gales or severe gales on the cards. If it fulfils its potential then power and road disruptions are pretty likely.

Very quick glance at the models today shows the greatest windfield being out over the Atlantic. Still some gale force winds for a time in places. Met office don't seem that impressed by it at the moment. Will update properly later.

Waiting with baited breath as dh driving south on sun night to film and then all the way from the south to the north again moon night.

First advisories are up for this. Western side Sunday night and into the rest of the UK on Monday.

Warnings of heavy rain and severe gales. Gusts to 65mph Inland (will look to see if the met office are undercooking this).
Met office say: "An unusually deep area of low pressure will bring a period of severe gales and heavy rain "

also significant snowfall in Scottish mountains.

Have to say, if you live in an area with dodgy power supplies, then being prepared with batteries, torches etc would not be an over reaction at this point. Tether those trampolines!

Ok, this morning it doesnt look quite so fierce to me. I think there could be some coastal flooding along the south coast and I still think there will be some trees down as the winds are coming from an unusual direction.
North western coasts will begin to feel the effects of this tomorrow evening.

More later today.....

Thanks, Kitten. I absolutely love the weather threads.

OOh, any updates?

Been out all day from the moment I posted this til now so just playing catch up :)

Interestingly I was expecting this deep low to be downgraded a bit by this evening as I hinted at this morning. As far as I can see (quick glance) it has not. Met office still going for 65 mph gusts. That is enough to take down trees particularly with the unusual direction of the wind.

Looking at the gfs model output (in my very amateur way) I think that the NW and then the SW will see the greatest wind speeds and the south coast the greatest flooding risk. I could very well be wrong so don't stake your lives on that!

Don't be hugely surprised if you get some convective activity (going to look at tORRO to see if they have a convective discussion going yet.)

no convective discussions going yet....

Well my chickens are refusing to get up this morning if that's any indicator. We are in NW.