How much do grades typically improve between mocks and GCSEs?

[winterrabbit]

DS1 took his mocks before Christmas. Did very little revision so we're not expecting anything great but hoping to avoid a disaster as well. He got his results in Physics, Chemistry and Biology today and got 4, 5, 5 which I am a bit disappointed about as he got all 5s in the same subjects in the last assessments. No other results yet. Any idea what his predicted grades will be based on those and how much kids typically go up between mocks and GCSEs?

What does he want to do?

At my school that is what we focus on, what does he want to do next?

If he needs a science grade (ie teaching) then do the lower paper, I have had students capable of getting 6s do the lower paper because it takes the stress/workload off.

Although you can only get a maximum of a 5 on a Foundation paper, that paper is generally easier than trying to achieve a 5 in the higher paper. DS was on the cusp for Spanish, and was entered for Foundation - he absolutely smashed his 5 very easily (needed 165 to get a 5 and he got 173).

Dd (and everyone else graded dropped too) got 4 and 5 in physics and chemistry in her mocks (she excels at English/ humanities/ languages) - we got a shit hot super expensive tutor and she worked really hard and got 88 in the real exams.

I agree with this. I wouldn't say it about ALL subjects, but science is bloody hard at A Level, and if he needs to work so hard at GCSE he will find it impossible, particularly if, as it seems, he's not inclined towards independent study.

Foundation paper has less content to revise (and it is the 'harder' bits of each topic that genuinely get dropped, I compared the revision guides) and the questions are a bit more straightforward imo.
The grades on higher go U,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 whereas on Foundation go U,1,2,3,4,5.
Unless you honestly think he stands the chance of a 6 then Foundation may be better. I'd be guided by the teacher unless your DS knuckles down.

A 3 is a 'level 1 pass', a U isn't. But yes, neither are a Level 2 pass. Doesn't make much odds unless you are scrabbling around for grades in which case having 3s gets you onto Level 2 courses whereas Us won't.

4s/5s at GCSE is really old Cs and your DS may be better off doing T-level/BTEC rather than A levels both from ability and work ethic if that is all he achieves in the real things cross the board. It is better to look at Plan B and Plan C now than be bounced into an ill thought out choice at the end of August if higher grades aren't achieved. You can still go to uni with T-Levels/BTECs.

He may need to think again about the Economics. It's really challenging for someone working around 5 in GCSEs.

Based on my two kids experience (one hardworking and one less so) I would say one grade is the usual improvement with work. Two grades improvement is unusual.

At my kids school you have to be academic to sit A level economics. Both my kids were interested, the one with a 9 in maths and 8s in triple science was accepted. The one with a couple of 7s, lots of 6s and a couple of 5s was not and did Business instead.

Yeh @winterrabbit what @TeenDivided says - and others too - the F paper is a lot easier so it is much more accessible and easier to gain a 4/5.

MFL is my subject not science; the MFL F paper is so so much easier. Anyone who was gaining a 4/5 at this stage in year 11 would be advised to take F. Presumably they are not planning an A level in the subject so an easier pass is the badger.

A student I know who is actually pretty smart took F French as he had no plans to take it further - he quite honestly said to me "I need to translate 'My uncle lives by the beach' into french - that's simple". I thought that was pragmatic and eminently sensible.

If he is un likely to get a 6, F where available is the way. Certificates don't say he did foundation btw just the grade.

French A level is great but what grade is he likely to gain? If below a 7 I wouldn;t advise it tbh.

Both mine improved at least 2 grades in all subjects, eldest was a total surprise to the school (too quiet for her own good), younger was shocked by the low grades in mocks and was motivated to pull his finger out.
Funnily enough eldest was the same at A levels.

Thanks all. We don't have formal predictions yet as the mocks were only take before Christmas and results only coming out now. So far all I know is what the teachers have told me and may change. Teacher said today he'll be predicted 6 for Biology. Not sure about Chemistry or Physics but Autumn prediction was a 5 for year so I would say 6 in Chem, probably 5 in Physics. English should be a 6 but not sure yet as no mock result. Maths's autumn prediction was a 6 so will hopefully be at least a 6 or 7 (his maths author thinks he is capable of at least a 7 and he routinely scores 6 in past papers). French is strong, should be at least a 7 (dad is half French). No idea about Geography or PE - could be bad.

Will be guided by his teacher on the Physics paper - he's doing the higher papers for all other subjects.

In terms of A-levels, his maths is strong and one of his best subjects but we've been put of choosing it as an A-level as it's known for being super tough and not sure he'll put in the work. Economics seems a good compromise and more academic than business plus he has (rarely) expressed an interest in this subject. I think he has to do French as it's his best subject and should be fairly easy for him to do well. Sociology he chose. So not looking to study any of the sciences at A-level but I still want him to get the best results he can.

This is incorrect. The lowest grade you can receive on a Higher Paper is a grade 4 for single Sciences and anything below this would be unclassified i.e. U. In combined science you can obtain a 4,3.
The grade 3 was a temporary measure when the 9-1 courses were introduced and has now been discontinued.
Most dcs do improve by 1-2 grades between mocks and the actual exams. But there are some who do not improve and some who will do worse in the real exams. Anything more than 2 grades is unusual, but not impossible.

He's not contemplating doing sciences at A-level. Where have I said he is?

Yes, that is my understanding too.

The entry requirements at his school for Economics are a 6 in Maths I think and a 5 in English Language. Working around a 5 now in three Sciences hopefully isn't going to impact his chances of applying for this A-level especially if his grades increase by one level to 6s. He IS working around a 6 in English Lang and Maths which would seem to count more?

I should also mention that he has an EHCP so I believe if he gets the required grades they're obliged to admit.

I need to add that if you obtain a grade 5, it does not say anywhere on the GCSE certificates whether your dc took the Higher or Foundation paper, it will simply say GCSE (Names of subject) 5.

One of mine was OK at maths, the next one struggled. The 2nd one did the foundation paper and they both came out with a 5.

Bit confused by this as there are plenty of posters here who have said their DCs were getting 4s and 5s in the mocks then started revising and their grades went up in the finals. It's good to have a back-up plan but I am not going to limit his options at this point by ruling out A-levels. He's a bright more and considering he missed over 3 months of school in year 10 is doing pretty well. I'm not going to rule out A-levels at this point.

Bright boy not more. Sorry, faulty keyboard is making typing hard!

I did say if that is all he achieves in the real things (a)cross the board

So it does all rather depend on whether or not your DS works or not.

(ps I take note re Higher going from a 4 straight to a U without the grade 3.)

My experience is that most students will improve a grade between mocks and real exams if they do the work in class, attend revision sessions and do some independent revision.

Some students have bigger jumps but that's usually in situations where:

• they've done an exceptional change in attitude and effort
• they've had an excellent attitude to learning throughout year 10/11 and they continue to pull all the stops out
• something went unusually wrong in the mock exam (eg answered the wrong question, missed some pages stuck together)
• they were unwell or had something outside of school going on that affected their mocks so the mocks weren't really a fair reflection (eg family bereavement, mental health crisis, illness, time off for surgery)

Clary, what do you mean when you say that predicted grades don't count? Won't 6th forms admit or reject him based on his predicted grade? I thought all the places are allocated in the spring? He has an EHCP so we need to follow a slightly different process.

HRTFT but DD's sixth form wanted at least a 7, preferably an 8 to study sciences and maths at sixth form.
She achieved the predicted grades in those favoured subjects (8s) but went from a 7 to an 8 in English and French and from a 7 to a 9 in history so two grades is definitely possible.

DS was a bit of a mixture. He went up a grade in 4 subjects, up 2 grades in 3 subjects and stayed the same in 1 subject. But he also went down in 2 subjects. It's hard to predict.

Secondary school teacher here.
We usually bank on students making about a whole grade of progress from mocks to summer exams - but that’s an average. Some make more progress, some make less. For predicted grades we take into account how representative the mock grades are compared to previous assessments, and how much of the course was examined in the mocks. For subjects like Art, Music etc, coursework is also considered.

Sixth forms usually give offers of places based on predicted grades - but actual enrolment in summer will depend on their final results.