How much do grades typically improve between mocks and GCSEs?

[winterrabbit]

DS1 took his mocks before Christmas. Did very little revision so we're not expecting anything great but hoping to avoid a disaster as well. He got his results in Physics, Chemistry and Biology today and got 4, 5, 5 which I am a bit disappointed about as he got all 5s in the same subjects in the last assessments. No other results yet. Any idea what his predicted grades will be based on those and how much kids typically go up between mocks and GCSEs?

Not all sixth forms have closed applications yet - mine is the end of Jan. larger sixth form colleges will accept applications throughout the year, and different for an EHCP anyway as consultation process also has to happen

Can your DC get private tutoring or go to revision classes on one of the holidays? I remember going to a "fun" week of camp for those of us struggling with a subject. Between that, my tutor, and actually studying I went from a C to an A.

Schools accept or reject students based on their actual GCSE grades. I have never heard of a school rejecting someone outright in advance of their GCSEs – unless maybe it was clear that A levels would not be a good fit for them.

If your lad is hoping for 6s and 7s in his chosen A level subjects, then that’s all good. It’s not like uni where there is a limited number of places. I mean, there are limits but I never heard of anyone not getting in to a regular (so not super competitive) sixth form based off predicted grades.

Both my DC that did sixth form had places at two schools offered. But it wasn;t an issue Honestly.

I don’t know about very competitive sixth forms but I gather they exist – but if your son is ay a regular comp then they will be offer him a place based on what you say here. If he doesn’t do well enough in the actual exams then it may be a different ,atter.

Couple of examples:
DS mate 1: got grades needed in most subjects but a 5 in one chosen for A level; they suggested he did another subject where he got a 7; he said no, they admitted him.
DS mate 2: did worse than hoped in his GCSEs (like, 2s and 3) – had had a place at sixth form but was turned down and went to college to retake (which ended well btw).

My point is that the actual decision is made on results day, and until that point most people will get an offer. It’s not like getting an offer to study economics at LSE or sports science at Lboro.

I keep talking to ds2 who has only just started year 10 about this, and he just doesn't seem to 'get it'.

DS has applied to 6 - 4 schools and 2 colleges and the closing dates have ranged from mid-November to February half term.

We've found that they have asked for predicted grades, not mock grades. DS' report gave both. He has his first interview in two weeks time. They have asked him to bring his latest report with him.

In terms of grades most of the predictions are one grade higher, except in one subject where he had a complete nightmare and is predicted two grades higher as the teacher thinks the mock result was just him having a really bad day!

Sixth forms do not admit or reject based on predicted grades.

The process is that he applies for sixth forms. They decide whether they want to make him an offer based on predicted grades and an interview.

So sixth form A might offer eg three 7s and five 5s.
Sixth form B might offer eg all 5 or above with a 8 in the subjects he wants to do.

If he then gets the grades for the offers he is in.

My son got all 2s in mocks.
This caused a lecture from me.
We created a structured revision timetable.
I printed past exam papers.
Grades went to 2x 4s, the rest were 5s and 6s.

It also works the other way too - so if you want to do maths, physics and french but are predicted 5,5,6 the school say yes to french but ask you to change maths and physics to other subjects. But if you then get amazing grades in maths and physics they may well let you change your subjects back.

A lot of the places we've been to want grade 8 in GCSE Maths to do A level and grade 9 if you want to do further maths as well. Seems to be a mixture of oversubscription (lots of applications for maths) and how much more difficult A Level maths is compared to GCSE.

Wow, that is encouraging! What did the revision timetable look like?

Completely disagree. My daughter got all 5s in her sciences at GCSE and took all science subjects at A level and is doing really well. How to demotivate a child by saying if you're not good enough at 15 then just give up!! Hard work pays off, some kids just need a few more years for their brains to advance to a level to absorb complex information. Thankfully my daughter wasn't listening to your advice.

Wow, that's great they give you that flexibility. If he doesn't do that well in Maths then he could do Business instead of Economics. Didn't know they let you change your subjects.

Hear hear Lakemum! I also think employers look past A-level grades and, increasingly, even degrees.

So they do offer based on your predicted grades and you could miss out if your grades are below the entry requirements? What if you meet the entry requirements? Presumably it then goes to their admissions criteria if oversubscribed (which most near us will be as we're in London).

Dd went from a 3 in both English GCSe to an 8 in both but we did get her a tutor (just for English) Science went from a 5/6 to 7/7 without a tutor. Can’t remember the rest.

When I interview a candidate the main thing I'm looking for is, can I work with this person! Do they seem engaging, interested, just generally "nice", you can't teach that!!! Educational qualifications definitely down the pecking order of requirements.

Interesting. DS got mostly grade 5s and one 6 at GCSE although it was in 2020 so he didn't actually sit the exams. He might have done better in the actual exams with a bit of work. He did go on to do A level economics at 6th form and is now studying it at uni.

The lessons we should have learned in 2020 (i.e. don't assume your mocks don't matter) seem to have been forgotten very quickly!

There will always be kids that buck the trend and get good A levels off relatively lower GCSEs, but unless there are clear reasons for those grades, it is a high risk strategy.
That said, they can always restart and repeat y12 with something more suitable if they bomb out.

All depends on how little revision they did for the mocks and how much they do for the real thing - one of mine went from a 3 to 6 in English as it gave her the kick she needed. My other dd (in a levels) went from and A in mocks to a D in French as she just freaked out we think

We scheduled an hour weekdays in the evening and six hours over the weekend from Nov of yr 11 to exams in the summer.
My son isn't academic nor likes school work but needed 4s or above for his course in 6th form. I didn't want to make him study for months for hours.

It really depends on lots of things such as how much he cares, how much he understands about the potential impact, how much of syllabus is left to cover, what school plans are for revision & cramming etc.

my son went up 2 grades in some subjects and one grade in others and he still didn’t do enough revision. What motivated him was finally realising he wouldn’t be able to do what he wanted (university) unless he got better grades.

Thanks for starting this thread op. Am reading with interest.

I would also love to see revision timetable examples. Will have a google.

Yes sixth forms do offer based on predicted grades and yes if you do not meet the offer you don't get in.

If you have met the general offer but want to change a levels this is usually ok but strictly it is at the sixth forms discretion.

They then apply the over subscription criteria to the people who have met their offers.

Certainly around me there are some highly academic ones where it is generally acknowledged you won't even get an offer if you are not predicted all 9's and some broader ones that accept a lot of people.

Dd3 has just started her mocks today. I don't remember how her brother (now 20 did in his mocks) - I wonder if they've become more important post covid. I did very badly in my mock O levels - 28% in Maths but got a B in my actual O level and carried on to do A level Maths.
I'm not at all bothered how dd does in her mocks, she's already predicted all 9s. If your ds didn't do any work for his mocks then I would go by his earlier predictions, if he did then without a tutor or other intensive help he'll probably increase by one grade.

Certainly around me there are some highly academic ones where it is generally acknowledged you won't even get an offer if you are not predicted all 9's and some broader ones that accept a lot of people.

Only about 2000 students in the whole country got all 9s in the GCSEs last year so I suspect that either that is a very small 6th form or you are exaggerating.

My DS did no work and basically "failed" all his GCSEs. Less than C in everything (sorry don't know the hew money!). V low grades. We did LOADS of work on revision, how to revise, exam technique, how to answer the questions, practice papers etc etc and he came out with all A* to B. So his jump was huge.

He is ASC and ADHD though but very bright so he knew and understood all the content pretty much. His main issue was with not understanding how to revise, not understanding the benefit of revising and not understanding how he needed to answer the questions. He had a habit for example of never explaining context so his answers were "correct" sort of but made no sense for example.

So I think it depends on where their difficulty lays.