How much do grades typically improve between mocks and GCSEs?

[winterrabbit]

DS1 took his mocks before Christmas. Did very little revision so we're not expecting anything great but hoping to avoid a disaster as well. He got his results in Physics, Chemistry and Biology today and got 4, 5, 5 which I am a bit disappointed about as he got all 5s in the same subjects in the last assessments. No other results yet. Any idea what his predicted grades will be based on those and how much kids typically go up between mocks and GCSEs?

I'm a teacher of MFL. I have known kids go from a 3 in the mocks to a 6 in the real thing. That only works for the bright but slightly 'laid-back' brigade who suddenly decide to do some work between mocks and real things, but it's definitely doable. If they keep plodding along I'd expect an increase of a grade or two at most.

This was many years ago now, when GCSEs were A and Bs etc not 1-9.

I was similar to your son didn't put loads of work in around test exams (not sure they were actual mocks).

I was decent at Maths, buy my Physics teacher said he was going to enter me into the Foundation Paper. To this day I am not sure if he worked me out mentally and knew how stubbborn I was and hated people telling me I couldn't do things. Either way it worked.

I stayed late in school and did extra lessons with him he was offering (with some others), and ended up getting an A.

So I think if your son is good at Maths it's possible, but he will need to be movivated to work.

If he's not looking to do it at A-Level, and wants to focus more on other subjects, then the foundation paper might make sense. As others have said, it should be 'easier' to get a 5 on the foundation than the higher paper.

A question of time / effort and priorities is how I would look at this.

Good luck!

Also an MFL teacher: in my 30 years of teaching, the majority improve by one grade but at the same time have seen bigger improvements and seen lower grades! Re: tiers, remember on their certificates it doesn’t say foundation or higher and certainly in MFL a grade 4 or 5 at foundation is easier for the candidate who us borderline foundation or higher. Whatever A levels your child chooses, minimum of grade 6 and above at GCSE in those subjects, otherwise they won’t cope at A levels: massive jump to A level.
loads of past papers!
my own son increased by one grade in most subjects: his maths however went from a grade 4 in the mock to a grade 7 in the real thing. His teacher, who was just amazing, put on breakfast classes/ after schools: he attended them all including those the head of department put on. Any sessions your child’s teachers put on, make sure he attends.
He’s now in his second year of Uni just loving life and GCSEs seem years ago! Infact will graduate in 2025!
I hope that helps.

Over the years I have had many parents complain FT would limit their child. Honestly there is no way your kids teacher will suggest FT if there is the slightest chance they might get a 6.
As others have said FT science papers are much more accessible, miss out a lot of the harder content and in the future no one will know or care whether it is a FT or HT 4 or 5.
Last couple of years we have had two exceptionally pushy parents who insisted their kids were “better” than FT 😳, they both ended up with Us, whereas their peers who took our advice to move tiers got passes.

I don't know about the number grades, but I got a U in my mock and a B in my real GCSE. I was just struggling so my parents got me a tutor and swapped my maths teacher. I myself am a Primary teacher so no experience teaching GCSE but I've taught SATs and I've seen some amazing progress. You just need to really help and support him in revising and making progress now.

There's no set formula imo. My son is bright but lazy..went from a 2 to 7.

My second son got a ungraded on his higher maths, so praying a similar miracle. Or resitting the lower paper. I didn't get A* and still walked a stem degree. I failed maths and English. English twice due to dyslexia. I still had decades working fir global IT company as a programmer.

Yes there is usually flexibility. Dd started with music A level and switched after a week of yr 12.

Of course more popular a levels may not have space. But there is a lot of juggling on results day - pls don’t worry op. 6s and 7s are fine.

If he gets below a 4 on a higher I think it's a fail.
If he put zero effort in then it's possible that with 4 months of effort he can go up by two grades.
They don't decide on which tier the kids are taking until quite some time yet, ask his teacher if he can do a practice mock higher paper in march and see if they'll decide after then.
Ds got a 4 in Arabic on the higher paper in November mocks, he's doing a foundation and another higher paper this Friday to see if there's improvement, his teacher said he can carry on practicing until mid march before they'll make a definite decision on which to put him in for.

I thought the deadline for exam entries was February - is that not correct?

As I understand it it's like a clearing process. So some students who chose certain subjects won't have got good enough grades to accept their place will be trying to get other subjects, or will accept a place elsewhere, so these space become free. We're hoping DS will get at least 5 offers from the 6 applications he's made but he'll only accept one once he has his results. So the other offers become available. The logistics of this process make my headache!

Ds had a 2 in English Lit mock and 4 in Eng Lang mock but came out with 3 grades higher in each
A 5 and a 7. He didn't particularly work really hard between mocks and real exams, I do wonder whether they marked them down on purpose.
He however got an 8 in Biology mock and came our with a 7. Also got lower in Geography than mock.
Maths stayed the same.
A mixed bag really some higher, some lower.

Yes I agree. School sometimes is a really hard enviroment for many children and they fly at college. I hate this whole thing of if you get a 6 at gcse you're looking at am E in A level etc...

It depends. DC did not do as much revision as they should have (and we went away for a bit over Christmas) for Jan mocks a couple of years ago

Mocks: 3, 5, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9 in mocks (then worked v hard)

Actual grades: 6 x 8s and 4 x 9s

Went up 5 grades in DT, 3 in Chem, 2 in Biology and 1 in Maths!

Passed papers is your friend (assuming understanding)!!!

I should add for the above that DC had been given stretch goals/predictions of mainly 8s and 9s.

Grades can go up by one or two levels, between now and the exams proper, but the student does need to do the work. Generally schools put on revision sessions, which help, but it isn't enough. Consistent revision between now and the exams is what will make the difference.

If you work your grades go up
my Daughter went from a five to a nine in one subject with effective revision

some of it depends on the school's marking - most of my son's subjects went up 2-3 grades but I don't think that's normal. he opened his results and wondered if he had been sent the right paper! I think because of covid years / and the subsequent marking its been harder for schools to predict.

actually sorry he went up 2-4 grades for most subjects - including being predicted a 5 for PE and ended up with a 9! It was a pleasant surprise.

@Advicerequest not true. For many, many DC I know of.

@winterrabbit how did your boy do? I hope he got what he needed.

Hi Lougle, he got 965555544 including 6 in English Lang and 5 in Maths so we're very relieved! However, annoyingly the sixth form at his current school where he wants to go won't let him do A-levels with those grades (entry requirements are 4 grade 6s and above) only BTEC so looking at other A-level courses at 2 other local schools where he does have a place and meets the entry requirements. Frustrated as he meets the individual subject requirements for the A-levels he wants to do but does not have 4 grades 6s or above.

Are they massively oversubscribed?

I'm surprised that for a current student they aren't willing to be flexible. Seems very shortsighted.

I know, I am really surprised too as I didn't think they'd be so strict. I also thought that schools operating waiting lists and would offer places to students who narrowly missed the grades if they didn't fill their places. It's a massive sixth form, not sure if they are oversubscribed or not. Would be a lot easier if he could stay there as he has an EHCP naming the school. He got a 9 in French so I am sure would easily manage French A-level, and 6 in Eng Lang which is the requirement for Sociology and Business. I am wondering whether to try to push them a bit more on it.

I would certainly push the fact he has an ECHP in place with the school. It is a very arbitrary requirement 4 grade 6s - probably at least 2 of his 5s were almost a 6!

With a EHCP I would certainly push it, I would be very surprised if he was allowed a place if he has made the grades for the A levels.