How maths GCSE result predicts A-level maths result (important for grade 6/7!)

[noblegiraffe]

I couldn’t figure out a decent title for this thread but I know that a lot of students are advised to take A-level maths without it being made clear to them the lower the GCSE grade they have, the less likely they are to get good grades at A-level.

I think maths is the A-level that relies most on achievement at GCSE as it builds directly on the most difficult GCSE content.

Pearson have (very roughly) mapped their GCSE outcomes in 2017 to A-level outcomes in 2019 in the grid attached.

You can see from the mapping that students doing A-level with a grade 6 are most likely to get Ds and Es (and actually I would suspect that a lot of grade 6 students drop out before even taking the exam), and grade 7s are looking at Cs and Ds.

Obviously someone could work really hard, hit their stride and ace their A-level, or could peak at GCSE and struggle, but I think it’s worth having this info when deciding A-level choices.

@HainaultViaNewburyPark usually if a student takes A level physics without taking A level maths, a lot of sixth forms make them take core maths which is half way between a GCSE and an A level as GCSE maths isn't enough to cover it. I am assuming his school doesn't offer this which means he could well struggle.

None of the schools in my area will allow anyone to take Maths A level without at least a 7 in GCSE. My DD was very disappointed to only get a 6 so cannot take Maths A level.

My school would let her take it with a 6 and every year it causes massive problems for those students.

I've been told by parents that they wished they'd known what a struggle it was likely to be, and the money that they would need to spend on tutors.

Did the Poster who said her son couldn’t do Maths as he had a 6 say he was doing Physics?
Surely people don’t do Physics without Maths? And someone with a 6 at GCSE Maths, even with an 8 on GCSE Physics, is going to find Physics A Level extremely difficult. Don’t the sciences have not only a GCSE science requiremt, but also a 7 requirement in Maths?

As I said previously, you can access humanities with a 6 or possibly 5 and cope with the course, even though likely outcome is D/E, but for sciences and Maths a 7 is surely the absolute minimum.

I dindvit shocking places let someone with a 6 do Maths or Sciences. I know people often beg and don’t grasp how difficult and demoralising it will be, but schools know ...and the only excuse must be for finding purposes, not the good of students.

Especially these last 3 years where grades have been more generous, someone without a 7 really isn’t going to be of the standard. Miserable for them, plus must make moving at a good pace for able mathematicians much more difficult too.

So is Maths and Science A Level too difficult? Or is it just that it’s not more difficult than other subjects at the top grade level, but that the issue with accessing even the basic levels, and that a student is more likely to feel ‘lost’ more quickly - poor understanding and outcomes are perhaps more obvious and more apparent to the student themselves, as well as teachers early on. This might differ to humanities where the weaker 5/6 student can join the class, enter discussions, read the texts and fill pages with words....even if the understanding is quite poor. They can generate an essay and be participating. They can rite learn some basic facts if their course....these might not get them many marks in exams which require analysis and technique, but they will feel like they are participating.

And actually, although most with 5/6 on GCSE humanities won’t get top grades in humanities A Level, there will probably be more who do hit C or B grades than those taking Maths from similar starting points. But students and parents don’t know this. To some Maths is a ‘must-have’. I agree that the chart (or an updated version when grading hopefully eventually settles down) should be shared with parents and students. But I suspect some schools and colleges would refuse that, as it’s all about bums on seats and they fear students leaving to go elsewhere.

Sorry, just spotted the earlier Poster said her son was denied Physics A Level due to a 6 in Maths. Seems right.
She said he had an 8 in Physics but 7 in Chen and was allowed to do that. Personally I’d think the Maths was weak for Chem too, but I guess it’s perhaps more accessible, even if great grades are unlikely.

Students with 6/7 grades are in the tricky ‘middle ground’ now there’s been grade inflation. They’ve passed, with ‘good passes’ and a 7 is officially a ‘high’ pass. But those students aren’t statistically on for high A Level grades, but often don’t seem to realise it’s likely to be C/D in humanities, with some stretching to a B, and at Maths or Science lower. But so many want RG uni and seem to think everyone starting A Levels has the same chance to get there.

@WombatChocolate - surely people still do A-level physics without doing A-level maths? In my day biology, chemistry, physics was a really common combination at A-level. Has that really changed?

And I’m not sure it’s fair to imply that people with 6/7 GCSE grades won’t do well at A-level. DD got a mixture of 5/6 grades (plus a single 7) in 2020 (admittedly these were TAGs). Her A-level results were A-star, A-star, B.

I don't think Noble and Wombat are saying that never happens, but 99.5% of students who get a 6 in Maths won't get A star so it's not that common. I assume they are both maths teachers so are talking about what they've seen happen over the years.

@WombatChocolate Surely people don’t do Physics without Maths? hence why my son's sixth form makes core maths compulsory no matter what their GCSE maths grade was.

So is Maths and Science A Level too difficult? Or is it just that it’s not more difficult than other subjects at the top grade level, but that the issue with accessing even the basic levels, and that a student is more likely to feel ‘lost’ more quickly - poor understanding and outcomes are perhaps more obvious and more apparent to the student themselves, as well as teachers early on.

I completely agree with this. Ds did maths and further maths and tutored his mate in their free periods. His mate got a 7 in maths but lacked some basic understanding which really hindered his progress and confused the hell out of him in some of his lessons. He soon realised what he needed to go back over from basically primary school level for some stuff, put the work in and did really well. But he was lucky to have Ds and also was motivated enough to work on it.

I also think that not every student coming into sixth form is heading for university and so they can take an A level subject but come out with decent grades but not university level grades. In my son's sixth form you need a 6 for maths and a 7 for further maths. Also grade 6 in a single science or 6,6 in combined science to take a science A level.

@ChestnutGrove noble is definitely a maths GCSE and A level teacher.

@HarryLimeFoxtrot those figures are mapped from GCSE to A level, I read it as actual students and what they achieved. Of course there are exceptions based on all sorts of different factors but it is good for students to know what they are up against with maths as an A level. This is specifically about maths though and the GCSE higher paper. Coming in with a grade 6 on the higher paper (AQA this year) you only had to get 50% correct compared to 65% for a 7 and 89% for a 9. Well done to your DD, she did brilliantly.

surely people still do A-level physics without doing A-level maths? In my day biology, chemistry, physics was a really common combination at A-level. Has that really changed?

School told my son not to take A level physics without A level maths. Although he got 9s in both at GCSE, he didn't want to take maths as he'd found the further maths qualification at GCSE challenging (apparently I'm the only parent that's asked for my son to move down 3 maths sets so he didn't have to take further maths).

He's in this summer's A level cohort and the two subjects most talked about were Physics and Maths as apparently the papers were tricky. I know of pupils who missed out on their engineering offers as they needed the A star in Maths and didn't get it. Overall, the Physics grades were lower than expected (academically selective private school).

My son ended up doing three humanities subjects but I still remember A level maths being bloody hard. I'd say it was also harder than my chartered accountancy exams which weren't easy either.

Very useful chart. My DD is in year 11 and trying to figure out Alevel choices. Maths is in the mix, as the better universities require it for Computer Science, which she's considering.

She is predicted an 8, and having found ALevel really hard myself off the back of an A grade GCSE, I had a gut feeling that A level Maths is a bold choice for anyone with less than a 9. But no teen wants to hear about their mother's experience from 25 years ago, so it's good to have some data to discuss with her.

This is really useful as my son wants to do A Level maths. He is currently working at a 7, although he has until the exams to improve. I am now concerned that wont be enough.

The place he wants to go says a minimum of a 7, but i didnt know that quite a few 7s would get a D.

@AntlerRose I had the same worries. At GCSE, the teachers said Ds could do the stretch stuff better than some other stuff, and would make silly mistakes. His CAG was a 7. His school sixth form had students start with 4 choices so they could then drop one. I think maths had a lot move out of it quite quickly. But Ds got better and better (and maturity of learning/how to learn played a part, I think) - he got the concepts fine and got on very well with it and enjoyed the problem solving. GCSE data determined a B prediction. He was two marks off an A star (the applied maths got him in the exam, though he was normally good at the mechanics part as he did Physics, too). He did not need maths for future plans but really enjoyed it. It is very hard to know but perhaps year 11 will help your DS make that decision?

@hop321 Same story re results at son's state school. Those two subjects seemed to prove some challenges this year for even very able students!

I did O levels a long time ago. I got a B in O level maths. Was never going to take it further and back then (at an utterly crap sink school) you were lucky to pass! But you also did not, back then, have pressure to get all As etc. Different world now.

Yes, it’s not absolutely impossible for someone starting Maths A Level with a 6 in GCSE Maths to get an A/A* at A Level. There will always be the odd person who achieves it and people will have anecdotally heard about them. However, that doesn’t change the overall statistics of what is the most likely and highly statistically likely outcome. Those thinking about choices for themselves or their DC shouldn’t latch onto the 1% or the 1 person on MN whose child bucked the trend, and decide that their child will definitely be that 1%…..in all liklihood they won’t!

And for people currently choosing, it’s best to look at statistics from 2019 and remember that looking at A Level outcomes in 2020, 2021 and even 2022 are significantly inflated. In some subjects, 50% more students got A/A at the peak of grade inflation,compared to 2019. Given the government says they want to return to 2019 levels next year, fewer will be seeing a bucking of the trend of L6 maths leading to grades above D/E at A Level…..especially as this cohort will be exactly those who had the most inflated GCSEs of all in 2021. Someone with a 6 in the 2021 round of exams, might well have been on a 5 in previous years. But they won’t get the extremely generous grading for their A Level in 2023. You’d therefore expect those at the bottom of the A Level cohort in terms of starting point, so see themselves even less represented in the A/A ranks in 2023 A Levels. Whether the government actually does take grade allocations back to 2019 remains to be seen..there’s a big leap down required to get there still.

And I agree that not everyone taking A Levels is aiming for Uni, or for top Unis or for careers that require too A Levels or require Maths. It’s worth remembering that. Getting 3 A Levels at Grade D is an achievement. Many Unis are an option from those grades and on a CV those grades are still the 3 A Levels that many jobs will require. Students and their families shouldn’t feel that only A*-B have any worth or their students with L5/6 grades shouldn’t be congratulated for their achievements this summer. Not everyone can be an academic high flier and everyone needs a path to adulthood and fulfilling careers.

The problem comes though, when those who have got L5/6 or their parents want them to take options which will be miserable for someone starting with a L6. Perhaps you only need 25% at A Level to get a level E. What kind of experience in terms of enjoyment and satisfaction if someone going to get from studying for 2 years and at their best, always getting 75% wrong? It’s about the journey as well as the end result. And the problem lies in parents or students who think that with hard work, they can certainly boost their L6 at GCSE to at least a B and probably an A in A Level Maths to access the Unis that their brighter friends or family might be accessing. A small number will, but statistically, the vast vast majority won’t. But people choosing A Levels for their children won’t hear it or believe it. As Noble says, it’s only when they are well into the Maths A Level that people often start saying they wish they’d been told how hard it would be from a starting point of L6, or how many drop out from that starting point, or end up with an E or U in Maths A Level. Perhaps it’s one of those things that you can say as much as you like (and whilst some schools and colleges don’t say it or do t say it loud enough, many do) but until you actually experience it with your own child or yourself, you don’t can’t believe it, and the natural optimist tells you that ‘surely hard work must mean anyone can achieve a top grade’.

Don’t know why some has become bold. Sorry.

@WombatChocolate It is so key, isn't it, that all achievements are recognised. A levels are challenging. I have students who come through Clearing who think they failed because they did not get a A! It all settles down at uni for them and they go on and do terrific things. DS's best mate was distraught because he missed his Firm for Economics - B not A in maths (and he had a contextual offer). He was predicted an A star in maths and felt he failed! He is fine now, thank goodness but the thought that a B is a failure to some kids fills me with horror!

I am glad Ds loved his maths so much but I still think it was a massive risk for him!

Most schools say do maths and physics because, if you don’t, some degrees are not really possible, eg engineering and physics. So it makes sense to keep options open and be able to make competitive applications.

Schools have to fill 6th forms. Anyone with Ds maybe should have done a mix of exams. Is a degree really a suitable higher qualification for them? We need a re-evaluation about what degrees are supposed to be and who takes them. Other qualifications and routes need to be far more accessible.

My DD went from an old B in Art to A at A level and A in Photography. Teaching quality matters! However that’s not maths and when posters say DC have gone from a 6 to an A, they haven’t mentioned the subjects!!!! So few can do this in most challenging subjects. Schools need to be honest about possible achievements at A level.

Not sure why that went into bold!

DD did politics (A-star), economics (A-star) and philosophy (B) for A-level. None of which she did for GCSE. She’s off to study business and management at university.

Perhaps it’s one of those things that you can say as much as you like (and whilst some schools and colleges don’t say it or do t say it loud enough, many do) but until you actually experience it with your own child or yourself, you don’t can’t believe it, and the natural optimist tells you that ‘surely hard work must mean anyone can achieve a top grade’.

Completely agree with this. I took A level maths, economics, geography and English. I worked far harder in maths than the other three subjects combined (ended up with three As and the B in maths).

My career has been numbers based/financial but I still remember how bloody hard A level maths was. I picked it to prove that I could do it and I'm not sure it was a good choice as it was chalk and cheese from GCSE to A level.

I think if they got 8 and are keen to do maths that's enough. Dd knew from year 9 she definitely wanted to do maths and never wavered from that. She got A from an 8 TAG. Doing it because they feel they should rather than being keen to might not be the same.

I don’t think that anyone should take A level maths with less than grade 7 Gcse. Obviously, there are exceptions to this, but generally if you can’t achieve a 7 or above it is unlikely that you will achieve a grade B and above at A level
Dd2 achieved grade 9 at GCSE and achieved A star at A level Maths in the Summer However, she has always been an able mathematician and loved the subject
DS was predicted a 7 and wants to do A level maths. I honestly think that this would be a mistake as I think he may find the course difficult. However, I am going to encourage and support him

I do think that it is easier to access maths A level if you have a natural ability

@HarryLimeFoxtrot
So those subjects were not maths.

I also think maths is like MFLs. Easier if you have ability and a brain that leans that way. My DD got 81% for an A in maths back in the day. 82% for A*. However she wasn’t a mathematician. She was on top set with DDs who were and could evaluate the difference between them and her.

STEM is pushed so much now. It’s inevitable unsuitable DC take STEM subjects. However maths has a very high proportion of top grades. Way more than some subjects. So it’s difficult for some but clearly most DC choose the subject with reasonable chances of success and are successful.