How maths GCSE result predicts A-level maths result (important for grade 6/7!)

[noblegiraffe]

I couldn’t figure out a decent title for this thread but I know that a lot of students are advised to take A-level maths without it being made clear to them the lower the GCSE grade they have, the less likely they are to get good grades at A-level.

I think maths is the A-level that relies most on achievement at GCSE as it builds directly on the most difficult GCSE content.

Pearson have (very roughly) mapped their GCSE outcomes in 2017 to A-level outcomes in 2019 in the grid attached.

You can see from the mapping that students doing A-level with a grade 6 are most likely to get Ds and Es (and actually I would suspect that a lot of grade 6 students drop out before even taking the exam), and grade 7s are looking at Cs and Ds.

Obviously someone could work really hard, hit their stride and ace their A-level, or could peak at GCSE and struggle, but I think it’s worth having this info when deciding A-level choices.

@nostaples I hear you, but she got full marks on her Drama coursework, so I really don't think a grade 9 was unrealistic for her. Like I say, it puts extra pressure on her for A-Level at a time where teaching is likely to be much more disrupted. For this reason alone she's changed one of her A-Level options to one that DH and I can more easily help her with.

Teachers tend to teach the kids in front of them rather than marks on a spreadsheet so if a pupil is struggling or excelling, expectations and support will adjust accordingly.

It has been an odd year, everyone knows the results are a bit all over the place.

[quote noblegiraffe]The Maths Emporium (an Edexcel account) tweeted the raw data and a maths teacher put it into the format I attached. Data here!:

twitter.com/drstonemaths/status/1296753174225846272?s=21[/quote]
Thank you! I've used this in four different meetings today.

Glad it has been useful! I’m certainly saving it for future discussions!

RE the grades having been pushed up this year, it is a shame for those who would have for the top grades anyway, because it does devalue it a bit. Most parents of kids with lots of top grades seem sure their would have got them anyway, but of course they can't all be right.

Assuming their sixth form courses and A Level exams proceed as normal, that is where it will all out. The genuine high fliers will get the top grades but more who had great grades at GCSE won't do so well at GCSE as their grades might suggest. There will be more disappointment, but hopefully schools won't be too daft in the UCAS grades they give them in a year's time and that will help some realism appear for students and parents at that point.

Schools and colleges which will accept students with lower grades onto A Levels, (especially maths) because they want the funding they being, will find things a struggle in this coming year. They will have more students who really struggle and will need a plan for how to handle that. Lots of students will probably quickly realise that maths really isn't for them at A Level and hopefully realise sooner rather than later and find something more suitable. It's those who really aren't suited to A Levels at all who will be difficult to sort out a few weeks into term, especially if they doggedly hold onto the idea that their scraped passes through the CAG system of raised grades means they are suitable. (Often it's the parents not the kids who won't give up on A Levels - often the child knows painfully well that it just isn't working).

In the end, no one can know who would have got what in exams! That is the problem with a single point of success or failure, and why the majority of universities do not assess in that way.,

Ds1 is about to go into year 13, he is doing maths and FM A levels. At GCSE he got a 9 in maths and an 8 in statistics. He loves pure maths. To take it at A level, only a 6 was needed for maths, a 7 for FM.

He is peer teaching his mate who got a 7 in maths as the mate has realised he has gaps in his knowledge and this has impacted his A level maths learning. It is good for Ds1 as it helps cement the work in his head. They do it immediately after the maths classes as they have a free period.

Pre-covid Ds1's class sat an AS level FM paper as a mock exam as they completed the content, results were as follows

A* 16% (including Ds)
A 32%
B 26%
C 4%
D 16%
E 6%

I think a 6 is low for a maths A level unless the student is really willing to work at it.

@noblegiraffe I remember looking at the table you showed when my son was was choosing A levels and needed A level maths for his chosen degree having got a 6 at GCSE (tags 2 years ago) and thinking it would be impossible and worrying about his choice. He needed an A or B at A level and only 3.1% of students get the A according to this chart. He worked his bloody socks off for the two years and got the A!! I'm so damned proud of him, it shows hard work and good exam management (ie focus on the marks you can get and don't spend too much time on the stuff you can't) and you can do it. His teacher is chuffed as they were worried about him doing the A level too! It's hard but he is now so proud of himself and that is priceless. So if you are determined and put the work in it's possible to be in that 3.1%! It also showed him that hard work can pay off so keep your dreams and work for them.

This is a really interesting discussion. I wonder whether for some subjects such as maths and science the grade boundaries are not quite right? Because a 6 in maths sounds quite good - but actually, in Edexcel for example, you could get a 6 even if you got less than 50%.

@Boysarefab well done your DS, you must be very proud! That's an immense amount of progress!

I will say that the table in the OP probably doesn't accurately reflect the situation of the last couple of years where the kids have been all over the place, teaching has been all over the place, and grading hasn't followed the usual rules. Not to take away from what is clearly an incredible achievement, particularly in those challenging circumstances, just as a comment for anyone thinking of trying to use those figures in the next couple of years. It's a bit more up-in-the-air than that now.

but actually, in Edexcel for example, you could get a 6 even if you got less than 50%.

Yes, but that's because the higher paper has to reasonably cover grades from 4 to 9.

A grade 4 (in 2019) was 22%, a grade 9 was 82%. Possibly the percentage for a 9 could got a bit higher if you wanted to pull up the percentage needed for a 6 without squishing the grade boundaries closer together, but there's not much room.

No, that's not right. The 80% is not 80% of the A and A star grades available.

80% of those who got 9s at GCSE got A or Astar at A-level. That means 20% of those with 9s didn't.

Doing rough estimates because I can't be bothered to find a calculator, A and A star went to about 6400 of those with 9s, about 4320 of those with 8s, and about 850 of those with 7s (plus small numbers of the 6s/5s). That means those with 9s do account for more than half of the As and Astars (roughly 6400 out of less than 12000, but not anywhere near 80%).

Well done to your son!

I think that's exactly why this sort of table is so useful. It doesn't say it's impossible to go from a 6 to an A; it just says that only 3% do, so you'll need to work really hard to make sure you're in that 3%. It also says to the person with an 8 that they should not assume they're on course for an A or better.

I'd love to see a chart like this for the sciences. I'm trying to resist a kid who got grade 5 being put into my a level biology class

DS got C in maths and physics at A level after getting 6s at GCSE (during pandemic.)
He's off to uni to study English which was his favourite subject out of the three at A level. He and we are super proud of all his grades esp during a very tricky, disrupted couple of years. Had he had a regular first year of 6th form (and not missed sitting one A level due to having covid), who knows, he may've achieved a different grade but we'll never know.

A vaguely related question for those of you in the know...
Is there any way of resitting GCSEs that were passed, in order to get a higher grade - in particularly, doing the higher tier papers after originally being entered for foundation?

I know that those pupils doing foundation are often not likely to be suitable for A-level courses in those subjects, but sometimes schools can be a bit rigid in which class children go in, and late bloomers might find themselves restricted - from time as much as anything, not being able to learn enough of the higher curriculum in year 11, even if they do show more ability than previously thought.

Are there any colleges or evening classes or whatever that might let someone take maths at the higher tier in GCSE, maybe for a year re-sit course, if they might then want to do A-levels later (probably not in maths, but some sciences, perhaps, that requires a 6+ in maths at some sixth forms). All the colleges seem to offer re-sits for those who haven't passed, and are aimed at those trying to get a 4, presumably because that is what is funded. But can pupils pay to study a higher tier course, alongside, say, Btec or other one-year courses to just keep them in education during that year, waiting to start A-levels later. (Trying to do both at once might be too much).

I also have a related question. DS has been told he can’t do A-level physics because he only got a 6 in GCSE maths (his school requires a 7). He got an 8 in GCSE physics (3 marks off a 9). Does this seem odd? Or is the school correct in their approach? He’s started doing A-level chemistry instead, but that seems counterintuitive as he only got a 7 at GCSE.

The maths in a level physics is very hard. I think it's a sensible decision

A friend's dd got 6 in maths but 8 in physics. She got D in the physics A level.

Congrats at @Boysarefab

I was also on this thread as worried about DS who got a 7 .He got a very strong A (with paper 3 applied his weakest) and super high in the two pure papers. He was predicted a B (at best!) . His best friend had a 9 in maths but got a B, but was predicted A star. @noblegiraffe I think the assumption you point out about those with high grades always getting high A levels was something that hit DS's best friend. He wonders if had been too complacent as his teacher kept saying he would breeze it. My DS got better at better with a lot of practice papers and did really enjoy the learning!

@Gherkingreen those are very able grades - and physics has been rough this year. DS struggled with it though normally his stronger suit! As an English Lit uni lecturer - yehey to anyone choosing English (also challenging at A level!)

I don't know how similar IB Maths is to A-level Maths, but my brother who is a Maths-wizz and went on to get Firsts in his Engineering and Computer Science degrees at Cambridge, took Advanced Maths as one of his core IB subjects and found it very challenging. I assume Maths at A levels is similar to Advanced Maths in IB.

I think the humanities are accessible by most people, regardless of ability (assuming they have got at least a 5) - they might not achieve high A Levels at the lower end of the GCSE spectrum, but they will be able to access the course - ie. sit in class and follow what’s going on, and have a decent attempt at exam Qs and sill a page with writing, even if their end results are D/E.

For Maths and Science, I think A Levels are pretty inaccessible for anyone below a 7 and actually, even for some students with 7, 8 or 9 can be incredibly hard if they don’t have a natural understanding if the subjects and got their GCSEs by hard slog. For those students below a 7 or real strugglers, the subject might not be very accessible. Sitting in class and really not following, being faced with HWK you simply don’t know how to do. It can be 2 years of misery, and many won’t make it to the end of the course anyway. And I think Maths ability is really important for Maths A Level and actually all of the sciences. So if you start with a 6/7 in Maths, the liklihood (and there are always those who buck the trend…but not many, as upthread shows) of doing really well at A Level in Maths or sciences is low. Starting with that understanding is important for managing expectations. Of course some always will get D/E and that is an achievement, but those students need to know that when they start thinking about Uni and not think that their 6/7 in GCSE science or Maths is likely to translate into A grades at A Level. It might sound harsh and as if lids are being put in them, but they need to know the reality. Schools and colleges don’t do them any favours in they welcome those with a 6 onto A Level Maths or Physics and tell them ‘it will be fine’.

Interestingly, I spoke to a neighbour whose DS just got a GCSE grade 9 in Maths but is now doubting if he can do A Level. He scraped the 9 and has found the early lessons hard. It might be that some resilience is needed, but is shows the step-up, even for someone with a 9. He’s wondering if other subjects might be better and more enjoyable for the next 2 years. It’s about the grade outcomes isn’t it, but also the experience for the next 2 years - no-one wants misery and huge struggle the whole course.

It’s also about careers. Lots need maths. If he doesn’t want a science career, the maths won’t matter.

True. Maths is the big facilitator. Of all the degree courses that have a specific A Level requirement for entry, it’s most likely to be Maths. So you need it for most degrees in Economics and engineering amongst others. Lots of careers would prefer candidates for jobs to have A Level Maths.

Lots do it for these reasons, but they have a miserable 2 years because it’s really getting beyond them. Once they’ve got it, they can access those degrees that require it. However for some, they’ve got lower A Level results than if they’d done something else.

One of my DC was in the first cohort with number graded GCSES. They got an 8 in Maths. There was no way they thought they were suitable for it and their GCSE teacher certainly wouldn’t have recommended it or welcomed them in. They had worked so hard to get the 8, but knew it just wasn’t their thing or natural to them.

I find this an interesting thread - having DS who did GCSEs in 2020 and DD who did them this year.

DS got an 8 in maths (I think that was reasonable) and did A Level maths as his third A Level. He got an A at A Level but it was only just (completely on the boundary) which I felt was just about justified - could easily have been a B or a C.

DD got a very high 8 at maths but didn’t want to take Maths. I agree - she really doesn’t love maths the way I feel you should for A Level. (I did maths and further maths and quite liked them both 😃)