How maths GCSE result predicts A-level maths result (important for grade 6/7!)

[noblegiraffe]

I couldn’t figure out a decent title for this thread but I know that a lot of students are advised to take A-level maths without it being made clear to them the lower the GCSE grade they have, the less likely they are to get good grades at A-level.

I think maths is the A-level that relies most on achievement at GCSE as it builds directly on the most difficult GCSE content.

Pearson have (very roughly) mapped their GCSE outcomes in 2017 to A-level outcomes in 2019 in the grid attached.

You can see from the mapping that students doing A-level with a grade 6 are most likely to get Ds and Es (and actually I would suspect that a lot of grade 6 students drop out before even taking the exam), and grade 7s are looking at Cs and Ds.

Obviously someone could work really hard, hit their stride and ace their A-level, or could peak at GCSE and struggle, but I think it’s worth having this info when deciding A-level choices.

However maths has a very high proportion of top grades. Way more than some subjects. So it’s difficult for some but clearly most DC choose the subject with reasonable chances of success and are successful.

There's something to be said for that. My son is doing three essay based subjects, one of which has 25 mark essays for the exam. He'd been comfortably getting A stars since he started the course but then a C for his last mocks. He'd gone off at a slight tangent on an essay (or maybe two) and that was the outcome,

While the content isn't hard to learn (other than the volume), I guess essay-based exams have a risk factor too. He ended up getting an A in that subject, put up to an A star after review, but he spent a lot of time doing essay planning so he didn't come unstuck again.

Although I can remember looking at certain maths questions in my A level exams and wondering where on earth to start, so I guess it's swings and roundabouts. I still found maths far harder than my other subjects though.

It was @WombatChocolate’s post that made me comment:

And actually, although most with 5/6 on GCSE humanities won’t get top grades in humanities A Level, there will probably be more who do hit C or B grades than those taking Maths from similar starting points.

DD had 5/6s in everything (except drama, which was a 7). It didn’t stop her getting good grades at A-level - especially in the subjects she enjoyed. We actually moved her to sixth form college because her school wouldn’t let her do A-level economics with her GCSE maths grade. I think she more than proved herself to be capable as she came out with an A-star in this subject.

HarryLime - brilliant for your DD. As I said, MOST who start with 5/6 don’t get to A star at A Level. There will always be one or two who make it. That’s what everyone has been saying. It’s never the case that NO-ONE can make the leap…quite simply that the vast majority don’t. No-one can say with 100% certainty to someone with a 6 that they won’t or can’t get an A/A*, but they can point them to statistics such as in Noble’s table to show liklihood. Even when many see that table they still feel sure their DC can get there with hard work. A few will, but most quite simply won’t and can’t.

Of course that table is for Maths, where GCSE outcomes are mostly starkly linked to A Level outcomes in Maths. In Economics, there is certainly a need for decent numeracy at A Level, but to be honest, essay writing skills make the biggest difference for A Level Economics. It’s at degree level where the Maths A Level is so vital, and usually a requirement for most popular unis. To get an A* in Economics, from a starting point of only 1xGCSE grade 7 and the rest lower is certainly unusual, but will be less unusual than for those looking at A Level Maths.

And finally, again we need to think about all this mostly in terms of those who sat conventional exams…which clearly anyone taking either GCSEs or A Levels in the last 3 years hasn’t done. A TAG or CAG is of course all that’s as available in 2020 and 2021, and without diminishing any of those achievements, again the grades were significantly inflated. Some of those with A/A* wouldn’t have got them if they’d sat normal exams with normal grade allocations. It’s impossible to say though who would and who wouldn’t amongst those that ended up with those grades. And they should rightly all be celebrated. The point quite simply, is that in the 2020 and 2021 A Level cohorts, they had sat their GCSEs, and then many got more uplift in their A Levels than would have been usual. So it’s harder to say accurately what starting positions from GCSEs ‘led to’. We won’t really be able to see that again until those who sit normal GCSEs in 2023 sit their A Levels in 2025, assuming standard grade alloacatiins are used again those sets of exams.