How maths GCSE result predicts A-level maths result (important for grade 6/7!)

[noblegiraffe]

I couldn’t figure out a decent title for this thread but I know that a lot of students are advised to take A-level maths without it being made clear to them the lower the GCSE grade they have, the less likely they are to get good grades at A-level.

I think maths is the A-level that relies most on achievement at GCSE as it builds directly on the most difficult GCSE content.

Pearson have (very roughly) mapped their GCSE outcomes in 2017 to A-level outcomes in 2019 in the grid attached.

You can see from the mapping that students doing A-level with a grade 6 are most likely to get Ds and Es (and actually I would suspect that a lot of grade 6 students drop out before even taking the exam), and grade 7s are looking at Cs and Ds.

Obviously someone could work really hard, hit their stride and ace their A-level, or could peak at GCSE and struggle, but I think it’s worth having this info when deciding A-level choices.

Sorry about the random quotey thing, no idea why it did that!

@tryingmybest13

Interesting. I am a bit worried about DS taking A Level maths. He can drop it after year 12 (his plan) - they choose 4, then drop 1. He got 8s in his mocks, but his CAG was a 7. But I don't want to be doom and gloom with him before he even starts!

@netflixismysidehustle This is me!!

This is really helpful, thank you. My school allow them to do maths with a 6 and further maths with a 7. We also have large classes and only 4 hours a week. Most with a 6 drop out by y13 and very few achieve above a D - with a notable exception this year who got a B but worked his arse off for it. I feel we let them down by not being more strict- they fail the induction test but the 6th form team say that’s not enough to kick them off the course. So they just do badly or end up retaking the year. I’m going to show them this table- there are a couple of great graphs on the twitter feed too that show the data well.

@Effzeh definitely algebra!! It underpins everything. Trig is important too. With the ability to get a 9, and the drive to be preparing for the course now, she should do very well... I would like more students like that.

The main issue we have with grade 7 students is that they can get that whilst not being very good at algebra, and then they just sink because we use it every lesson. Just being confident with manipulating equations and understanding the steps you are taking is vital. The number of students who still just randomly cross x’s off the top and bottom of a fraction because they haven’t properly understood simplifying is staggering!

ASs do count as stand alone exams. So by all means put them on your ucas form.

If the applicant has sat an AS exam (including, this year, being awarded a CAG), including the result on the UCAS form is mandatory, not optional.

Fascinating thread.

I have a soon to be year 6 child and am so surprised that some algebra will be in the 11 plus.

Not from the UK.

So basically it sounds like secondary school is one hard slog to get good results and you need to start with regular study from year 7?

So interesting and so it sounds like exposing my child to algebra this early and trig is not too silly. I have been doing this and trying to introduce the lives of mathematicians but it sounds like it may be helpful for secondary.

@phonez if you’re home schooling that’s one thing but if your yr5 child is at school I’d let the teachers lead. The algebra & trig in 11+ exams is very basic.

@phonez but yes, once in secondary if children pay attention in class and complete all homework diligently then they’re likely to do well. It’s also important for them to have some down time though. I think as parents we can sometimes be too invested/controlling. Does your child enjoy learning about mathematicians? Supporting anything they enjoy is a huge bonus!

It was my child's idea during lockdown. Totally down to the child.

Interest in maths has gone through the roof.

I have only really got massively involved due to 11 plus and because of covid.

I have though realised the primary teaching was not up to it and the school really did not step up at all during the covid break, which I realise was difficult for everyone.

However, during lockdown my child has really thrived and has said that a great deal more learning has taken place (without interruptions) at home.

And there was loads of stuff that was in the curriculum that my child was not taught .. again I only realised this due to do doing homeschool and not getting any adequate resources or feedback about my child.

phonez if your DC hasn’t read the Murderous Maths series then now would be a great time to introduce them. They’ve got loads of extra-curricular maths including algebra and the lives of mathematicians.

www.murderousmaths.co.uk/books/books.htm

I'm not surprised by this. a student who gets a 5 or 6 at GCSE is simply not going to be able to cope with the A-level syllabus, except in the rare circumstances that the low gcse grade was a fluke and they normally operate at a higher level.

My DD got a 9 in GCSE maths in 2018 and got an A* at A level this year ( matched UCAS prediction and CAG though originally moderates down to A).
She's starting a maths heavy degree next month. It's her absolute favourite subject and a total mystery to me!

My ds got A for Maths at GCSE only one mark off an A *, before new numbers grades came in and got a C grade at A level and he worked really hard and had a tutor too.

I’ve just ordered the Muderous Maths box set noble - never heard of them. My Yr13 doing A level would have loved these; she still may. But I’m hoping my Yr7 will have a read if I leave them lying around. She’s not so keen on maths and hasn’t yet realised how fascinating it is. Maybe these will help. Thanks!
phonez huge well done to you creating a love of maths for your child - it opens so many opportunities. The sheer mention of the word to my almost Yr7 emits groans of despair.

@caringcarer

My ds got A for Maths at GCSE only one mark off an A *, before new numbers grades came in and got a C grade at A level and he worked really hard and had a tutor too.

Maybe that’s because the ‘old’ maths didn’t do much algebra and calculus. My eldest DD did iGCSE maths which has a lot of both so I think the transition to A level is a bit smoother. Still tough though.

Phonez, you are doing the right thing. Dd didn't do Murderous Maths, but it has had some positive comments on here and Noble does know what she is talking about. Keep the teaching fun and in balance with other activities.

There have been a number of threads where parents are surprised that their dc, who is about to do GCSE has not done the whole curriculum because they are not in the very top set. In year 11 there is very little time left to do anything about it. In year 6 or 7 there is lots of time to get them better at maths. This thread highlights the importance of this.

CGP books, Kahn Academy, nrich and UKMT websites are also worth a look at to see which your dc likes.

Having said this, first term of year 7 they will just need time to settle in. Particularly this year, when there is even more to get used to than in normal years.

@noblegiraffe do you know if anything is changing with A level maths syllabus? Or exam? Looking at the Ofqual doc it looks as if it’s business as usual for most A levels (other than assessing practicals, performances etc). There’s a heck of a lot to cover in a very reduced timeframe.

I don’t think they’re going to cut any maths content because whatever they choose to cut, someone would need to know it for their uni course. Cut the stats and screw the scientists, cut the mechanics and screw the engineers, cut the pure and screw the mathematicians. Besides, because schools teach things in a different order, there’s a chance that anything being cut might have already been taught to kids remotely (my school continued teaching Y12 the syllabus as planned, they’ve covered all the stuff they should have covered by now).

They might end up changing exams in the end, we don’t know yet.

Ofqual released info on changes to A levels and the only thing they are currently considering that will affect maths is moving the exams a bit later. In my opinion the maths spec is already overloaded - it is hard to cover everything at the depth needed for the problem solving questions in the exams. This is reflected in the really low grade boundaries. It’s going to be extremely hard this year, especially for the students who have not kept up with work over lockdown (which is quite a few of ours...)

The chart is unlikely to be accurate this year as CAGS are not accurate. I (a teacher) am operating on the basis that nearly every GCSE grade this year is at least a grade higher than it would be in any other year and I am very well aware of cases that are more like two or three grades higher.

@nostaples That makes me so sad, because I know you are partly right and that most people will agree with you. But DD got 3 9s and I'm as certain as I could be that she would have got them. I work at her school, her Drama and History teachers have predicted 9s since the start of Year 10, and she's achieved a 9 in every one of her mocks. Her other 9 was in the subject I teach, and I marked loads of her practice questions and they were already A-Level standard.

I guess it just puts more pressure on her to really prove herself during a Sixth Form that might be very disrupted. I know she's not the only one. Bloody depressing.

For those who were predicted very realistic grades I think that is really, really disheartening @nostaples

Well most parents will think that their child was the one who truly deserved the 9s, 8s, 7s, or indeed 4s but the truth is that about 1 in 3 grades are too high.

Many more children are likely to have got grades that are too high than the right grade or grade that are too low.

It is well documented that 2 out 3 teachers' predictions turn out to be incorrect.

There's nothing to be done about it now. Of course the children and their parents must celebrate their successes. But there are a lot of kids (and parents) who are going to feel very hard done by at A Level. There are very many children who would not ordinarily have passed their English and Maths and would not be enrolled onto an A Level course at all who are going to really struggle.