Scunnered .... *insert tier pun

[dancemom]

New thread, couldn't think of a title 🙈

@WouldBeGood we live in Fife and if we’re heading to Edinburgh we quite often park at north queensferry train station and get the train into Edinburgh. The parking is free and there is usually a space, there’s trains every 15/20 minutes and they are pretty cheap so you don’t need to plan. Might suit you okay if your heading to Fife anyway.

Where are you heading in fife?

@itsjustlowhangingfruit

I saw that fresher's week is discouraged this year.

Cases will definitely rise in September though.

Yes but will be amongst school kids and we need to stop counting cases or schools will continue to be so disrupted. Everyone over 18 will be fully vaccinated by sept. They're doing 18 yr olds 1st doses at the moment

Thanks @Icannever.

We are staying in Lundin Links, where I’ve never been. Though I went to school in fife.

I shall be introducing DP to the delights of a Fisher and Donaldson fudge doughnut or coffee cream tower!

Oh my god the F&D fudge donuts.

My friend got a birthday cake sized one instead of a birthday cake, it looked INCREDIBLE!

Oh my! @SoMuchForSummerLove that really sounds amazing!

17yos start university too. Sometimes 16yos if they leave after S5

and international students may not have had both jags

I seriously doubt every student will be double jagged come September

But if it's safe for an unjagged 17 yr old to go to school, where none of peers are vaccinated, then it's safe for them to go to university. where virtually everyone will be. And I suspect gov will make it all overseas students have to be jagged
As I say I think the problem much more likely to be in schools with 100% unvaccinated than Unis

Over 4000 cases today, not sure I believe that the peak was last Tuesday as NS stated in her latest broadcast. Still not many seriously ill though and it looks as though the SG will open up regardless so that's positive.

• 4,234 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 42,843 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 10.5% of these were positive
• 6 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
• 16 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 275 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 3,816,251 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 2,722,725 have received their second dose

Thanks @dancemom, lots of tests, more new cases, more people in hospital, 6 deaths.

I don't know what point I am trying to make, it just doesn't look too good to me.

40 more people in hospital today. How long is this sustainable for??

@SoMuchForSummerLove

40 more people in hospital today. How long is this sustainable for??

Under the definition of a hospital admission though, these could have been people admitted for any reason who just happened to test positive. The more cases in the community, the more positive cases 'admitted' by chance, so this is expected. ICU has actually fallen I think.

@SoMuchForSummerLove

40 more people in hospital today. How long is this sustainable for??

but were they admitted into hospital for Covid treatment? I know of young man this week had bad car crash and is in hospital. tested positive when checked, no symptoms. But he's in hospital for treatment for fractures. he's probably been counted in those numbers

Agree with above, more positive tests in the community means more positive in hospital for any reason

Even with the non specific data, here is the chart to give a bit of perspective

3 fewer people in intensive care, but also 6 deaths.

They could have been admitted for another reason, absolutely, and I find it very frustrating that this information isn't published. But with daily cases as high as they are I don't think we can just explain it away like that. If people admitted stands at around 5% (as was said by NS last week IIRC) then that's 200 people who tested positive yesterday. And just under 200 the day before that, and the day before that...

It surely can't be sustainable to just let this continue, as we head back into autumn. I guess the hospitalisation rate should fall as more people get second vaccines. Feels quite a long way off tbh, and I'm absolutely surrounded by people ill and isolating. Far, far more than I've known of in the entire length of the pandemic.

not sure I understand the 200 a day????
At start of this thread on 23rd there were 170 in hospital. Now it's 275.
Increase of 175 in 8 days out of well over 20,000 cases

Well they certainly aren't undercounting. The vast majority of "cases" are now in the 15-24 population, I think only half of the over 18s have been single jagged.

Whilst a lot of non urgent work is still not up to capacity, the amount of those younger folk attending hospital with be lower than other age groups I would think and they are also the age groups least likely to need hospitalisation.

@latissimusdorsi

not sure I understand the 200 a day???? At start of this thread on 23rd there were 170 in hospital. Now it's 275. Increase of 175 in 8 days out of well over 20,000 cases

I'm saying if 5% of cases go on to need hospital attention, that's 200 from today's cases alone. That's the figure NS gave last week anyway. Obviously we're not seeing that, but cases a few weeks ago were much lower, so surely we have to expect quite a significant increase in the burden on healthcare.

Not to mention the burden on people who have only been single vaccinated. The people I know with it are really, really unwell. It feels quite odd to have the government all of a sudden shrug their shoulders and go 'oh well, you're not that likely to die'.

I really struggle with this idea that 5% of cases end up in hospital (or even 3% as I've seen quoted for England) because this is so out of whack with the total number of people in hospital we are quoted every day. By that metric there should be a couple hundred additional cases every day and that just isn't being seen in the total. Unless the vast majority of these positive cases are literally being admitted for a few hours, in which case we can be fairly confident they're not seriously ill!

Maybe the 200 is over the entire population but it's not currently evenly spread across the entire population. The vast majority of positive tests are in the youngest population who are least likely to need hospitalisations.

"It feels quite odd to have the government all of a sudden shrug their shoulders and go 'oh well, you're notthatlikely to die'."

I can see how this would be disorientating. It is quite a change of tune, especially given how hard they went after zero COVID and all the scaremongering about how anyone can be seriously ill (which was always pretty misleading as the level of risk is orders of magnitude lower for most young people). I do think they've found the right balance now though, illness is a part of life after all, and we're at the point where restrictions are causing more harm than COVID overall. I do wish they'd set up dedicated long COVID clinics as in England though- it's scandalous that this hasn't been done, especially considering how concerned NS claims to have been about long COVID throughout the pandemic.

@Y0uCann0tBeSer10us

I really struggle with this idea that 5% of cases end up in hospital (or even 3% as I've seen quoted for England) because this is so out of whack with the total number of people in hospital we are quoted every day. By that metric there should be a couple hundred additional cases every day and that just isn't being seen in the total. Unless the vast majority of these positive cases are literally being admitted for a few hours, in which case we can be fairly confident they're not seriously ill!

I call that figure of 5% plucked from the air. Most of these infections are in people 15-24....does anyone believe 5% of them are ending up in hospital? My arse they are.

Wonder why vaccines are declining since mid June. Is it a supply issue? though not heard if it is.

Wonder whether the 5% means people who have to see a doctor? Remember GPs don't deal with Covid ( well not in my area) so people get sent to a hub which is at local hospital. But they're not ill enough to need hospital it's just that's where the doctor is?

@Coquohvan

Wonder why vaccines are declining since mid June. Is it a supply issue? though not heard if it is.

think supplies of Pfizer are stretched at the moment. I seem to remember Humza writing to Matt Hancock about it a couple of weeks back