If they get the message and the campaign tone right
I think this is key and I don't think they are close yet. Even though they're nowhere near as unpopular as Labour, they could learn a lot from the lessons Labour need to learn RE stop pandering to the people who would vote for you anyway and focus more on the people who aren't.
I voted yes last time but was more of a "fuck it let's see, how can it be any worse than Tory austerity" type mindset.
Just in my circles I noticed it was (broadly speaking):
The people who had nothing to lose (i.e more working class): Yes.
The people who had more to lose (i.e more middle class): No.
The people who had enough security that losing whatever amount didn't really matter (i.e the more upper class): Yes.
Unless they supported Rangers.
That was mostly from smoking shelter chats in a large engineering company.
But if the vote were to happen again tomorrow I'd want to see more. I'd want to see their actual vision for an independent Scotland. I'd want to see their plan to turn Scotland into the Saudi of renewables, with all the engineering and manufacturing and support jobs that goes with it, and less about how we're the land of milk and honey for refugees, and you can choose if your milk comes from a man cow or woman cow etc.
Not that I'm anti-refugee, or against their attempts to PR Scotland into this huge-hearted embracing bosom of love... it just has very little bearing on my life or my kids life. I care about my business (which has taken a pelting from their 0 covid at all costs stance), I care about my children's education (do I even need to say more about the state of education in this country?) and I care about my children's futures re can they buy a house and get a decent job.
I couldn't bring myself to vote the other day. I was either going to spoil or vote Alba + Tory (since the Tory guy is the only one I've ever had an answer from)... but it was cold and raining and I knew it wouldn't change anything.
So that was a long way of saying that I agree with independence in principle (else I wouldn't have voted for it last time)... but the SNP need to make more people agree with independence in practical terms.