Alba tanks it, SNP hold, Willie and Jackie romp home

[AnnieHooo]

Randomising going on. Labour bombed it. I was politically adrift yesterday but now I'm sunk.

@Tomorrowisanewday

I've been voting for more than 35 years, and voted tory for the first time in my life on Thursday. I've always been left of centre, but where I live (not borders) is predominantly agricultural, and the seats have always been Tory or SNP in my memory. So while I've never not voted, I've pretty much always known my vote was wasted. Voting Tory was tactical, nothing more.

But this doesn't fit the narrative that there are 'good Scots' and 'disloyal' Scots.

And no one wants to actually question why people like you would feel compelled to make an unpalatable choice. To do so is to acknowledge some serious issues in the Yes movement.

@Tomorrowisanewday

I've been voting for more than 35 years, and voted tory for the first time in my life on Thursday. I've always been left of centre, but where I live (not borders) is predominantly agricultural, and the seats have always been Tory or SNP in my memory. So while I've never not voted, I've pretty much always known my vote was wasted. Voting Tory was tactical, nothing more.

Maybe nothing more for you but in the real world where every vote counts and your vote has added to the growing popularity of the Scottish Tories it's a lot more.

It's an acceptance of Tory policy and behaviour and it sends a message to them that they can do what they like and people will vote for them anyway.

Votes have consequences whether you like it or not.

I voted Labour and tory as the best tactical move in my area. I don't particularly like the Westminster Tories but I dislike the SNP and the idea of another horrific referendum even more (I was a No voter so don't remember an uplifting celebration of democracy). To be fair though, despite coming from a background where we were taught to despise Tories on principle, I don't hate them either. I think the Scottish tories in particularly are pretty centrist and not that far away from me politically now I've grown a bit older. In fact, to play devil's advocate, I glad those awful Westminster tories had the foresight to set up multiple vaccine deals early and in such a way that has led to us having one of the most successful vaccination programmes in the world (in sharp contrast to the EU...).

The point about emotional baggage left over from the last campaign is also interesting and I can relate to that. NS has to not only find credible answers to multiple difficult questions and somehow convince me its worth it, but also has to overcome the emotional resentment I'm left with having been 'othered' for the last 7 years or more for being a 'unionist'.

What are the serious issues in the Yes movement? That we want something you don't? I must admit I find this bizarre.

The SNP have been blamed for a lot but the idea that they are somehow forcing poor innocent lefties to vote Tory takes the biscuit!

Votes have consequences whether you like it or not.

You say this without any sense of irony. It's precisely because of the inevitable consequences that people are holding their noses. The SNP need to do something about changing the consequences.

One of the things that pisses me off the most about the SNP is the way their politics gives the Tories such a free easy ride in Scotland.

@forfucksakenett

What are the serious issues in the Yes movement? That we want something you don't? I must admit I find this bizarre.

The SNP have been blamed for a lot but the idea that they are somehow forcing poor innocent lefties to vote Tory takes the biscuit!

The most serious issue they have is a failure to persuade people to their point of view. Which is the whole point of being a political party.

Another failure: their politics alienates people and makes them see the Tories as preferable. That's extremely damning in Scotland.

But if the SNP is just a social club for likeminded people who all want the sane thing no questions asked, then I grant you that they're very good at that.

It's not going to result in independence though.

The SNP have been blamed for a lot but the idea that they are somehow forcing poor innocent lefties to vote Tory takes the biscuit!

I'm sorry but this is just absurd.

Labour are currently facing the same questions in England. The question being: What's so wrong with the Labour that people who never voted Tory now do so? Where are Labour going wrong?

Why is the SNP exempt from this criticism?

No irony. I'm happy with the consequences of my vote.

Labour have bombed down south. The SNP have won up here. Labour should be evaluating and seeing what they can do attract the voters. SNP have attracted a record number of voters. Why on earth should a winning party be agonising over why people are voting Tory?

Labour have to do it as a means of survival. The SNP do not.

The consequences I wanted was an opposition that would hold the SNP to account for some of their failures to deliver, and to stop another referendum when our economy is on it's knees. That's said as someone who runs a business, and has had to work 7 days a week for the last year to keep us afloat in the current restrictions.

The most serious issue they have is a failure to persuade people to their point of view. Which is the whole point of being a political party.

They've just returned, what 64 seats? in the election with a record number of votes. I think they're persuading some folk no bother.

Another failure: their politics alienates people and makes them see the Tories as preferable. That's extremely damning in Scotland.

All political parties alienate some people. That's why we have more than one. People themselves choose which other parties are preferable. If they pick Tory then that's on them.

But if the SNP is just a social club for likeminded people who all want the sane thing no questions asked, then I grant you that they're very good at that.It's not going to result in independence though.

We'll see. I think, and I very much hope, that you are wrong here.

I agree, if they were a big standard ordinary political party then they don't need to bother at all.

But their objective isn't to just be a day-to-day political party in Holyrood. Their ultimate goal is radical constitutional change, so they're different.

I think anyone who is staunchly anti-referendum and anti-independence would feel quite reassured by this thread. Because it feels like there's a very very long way to do before the SNP can persuade its supporters to understand that there have to be changes made to achieve independence. That's assuming that the SNP as a party is capable of this kind of critical reflexivity.

I do think Nicola Sturgeon totally gets it. But she's hamstrung by Salmond's political legacy and her supporters.

I wonder if they'll go with the 'most votes wins' strategy. As Used for Brexit.I think there was much said after Brexit that a win of eg 2/3rds would have been more sensible.
Stuff was still up in the air 4years later when covid started. With a close run thing the country is more divided.

They've just returned, what 64 seats? in the election with a record number of votes. I think they're persuading some folk no bother.

I agree, normal rules, they're doing well.

But by SNP objectives, this is a fail. They fell short of the outright majority they said they needed.

And if you look at total votes: by constituency, the vote splits to Yes parties at 49.3% and No parties at 51%. By list: Yes - 51.9% and No at 48%.

This is in spite of Boris and Brexit. I would have hoped for MORE 'Yes'. In fact, it dumbfounds me that there wasn't more Yes.

In addition, it's also outside a referendum context where the Yes campaign would be forced to confront tough questions which Brexit proves are not just about fear. I'd expect 'Yes' to be impacted negatively by that.

So if they go for a referendum now, I think they'd lose.

If they go for a referendum much later without confronting the reasons why they aren't shifting opinion, then I think they could well lose again.

I don't think the Yes campaign is doing well at all actually.

One little caveat on this opening comment. These aren't 'normal rules' because of constitutional context. How many seats would the SNP have won if they were just a normal party? How many people vote SNP on the basis of independence alone. I suspect if normal rules applied, they wouldn't have done this well.

@Quincie

I wonder if they'll go with the 'most votes wins' strategy. As Used for Brexit.I think there was much said after Brexit that a win of eg 2/3rds would have been more sensible. Stuff was still up in the air 4years later when covid started. With a close run thing the country is more divided.

I think they'll insist on a most votes win, irrespective of damage. If they can't shift the numbers with Boris and Brexit then I can't see how they can hope to meet, say, a 60% target.

And the Tories can't insist on a 60% threshold as a condition because they have claimed the Brexit result is a legitimate win.

I think there was a bigger turnout so more votes might be the case for everyone.

@smellycats but as Lesley Riddoch pointed out today they've done exceptionally well given the scale of 'tactical voting' going on. I think she described it as a victory while under attack which is a tad hyperbolic but I get what she means.

This is a clear mandate for another referendum and anyone who doesn't see it is bonkers.

@Quincie

I think there was a bigger turnout so more votes might be the case for everyone.

Yes there's a truth in this too.

@Quincie

I think there was a bigger turnout so more votes might be the case for everyone.

I agree with this.

@smellycats

I agree, if they were a big standard ordinary political party then they don't need to bother at all.

But their objective isn't to just be a day-to-day political party in Holyrood. Their ultimate goal is radical constitutional change, so they're different.

I think anyone who is staunchly anti-referendum and anti-independence would feel quite reassured by this thread. Because it feels like there's a very very long way to do before the SNP can persuade its supporters to understand that there have to be changes made to achieve independence. That's assuming that the SNP as a party is capable of this kind of critical reflexivity.

I do think Nicola Sturgeon totally gets it. But she's hamstrung by Salmond's political legacy and her supporters.

There's no doubt in my mind now that independence is coming. Probably in the next five years.

If they get the message and the campaign tone right and Boris continues as is then it will be easy to convince fence sitters.

I'm not entirely sure that this thread or indeed scotsnet in general can be taken to be representative.

Reading this for example you'd never think SNP would ever win anything.

[quote forfucksakenett]@smellycats but as Lesley Riddoch pointed out today they've done exceptionally well given the scale of 'tactical voting' going on. I think she described it as a victory while under attack which is a tad hyperbolic but I get what she means.

This is a clear mandate for another referendum and anyone who doesn't see it is bonkers. [/quote]

This is a clear mandate for another referendum and anyone who doesn't see it is bonkers.

As Professor Curtis pointed out though, another referendum now would be a massive gamble. I don't think Sturgeon wants to gamble, because they may have only one more shot at it.

There's no chance it will be now. 18months to two years would be my guess. Maybe three.

@forfucksakenett

There's no chance it will be now. 18months to two years would be my guess. Maybe three.

That's what I mean by 'now'. It takes that long to just get things in place, so the chat and politics has to start 'now'.

There will be no chat about it until the immediate issues relating to covid are over and things are looking far more normal.

I'm actually so excited at the thought of it.

I place more value on the views of John Curtice than I do Lesley Riddoch although I know their qualifications are different. I've met them both several times too.